There’s more to life in the NBA than rings. Ricky Bobby’s motto in Talladega Nights (“if you ain’t first, you’re last”) was supposed to be a joke. As his dad tells him, “I was high when I said that. That doesn’t make sense at all. You could be second, third, or fourth. Hell, you could even be fifth.”
在NBA的世界里,除了总冠军戒指之外,还有更重要的东西。在我看来,《塔拉德加之夜》的主角瑞奇鲍比那句座右铭完全就是个笑话(如果你拿不了第一,就等于你输了)。生活远大于输赢,正如他老爸所说的那样“如果你没能拿到第一名,你还可以拿第二名、第三名、第四名、第五名,我都会为你感到骄傲的”
Losing in the NBA Finals is a much greater accomplishment than losing in the first round. Even winning one playoff series is difficult. Just ask Tracy McGrady. A team that wins in the first round either has to be good enough in the regular season to be one of the top four seeds in its conference, or good enough to beat one of those teams. Focusing purely on rings unfairly devalues all the things teams have to do to compete for one, while also obscuring some fascinating patterns about what happens in the playoffs.
在总决赛的失利往往会比在首轮就出局可以给球队带来更多的收获,毕竟在季后赛这么高强度的比赛里,赢得任何一轮系列赛都是异常艰难的。一支球队,要想迈过季后赛首轮,要么依靠出色的常规赛战绩,占据分区前四进而拥有主场优势;要么就要有把握可以在一轮系列赛里击败对手。如果仅仅依据是否能够获得总冠军而去评价一支球队一个赛季的努力,这么做是有失公准的,同时也体现不出来自季后赛的魅力所在。
Below is a look at the career playoff series records for the top players in the NBA. There are a couple of important qualifications. I didn’t count a series positively or negatively for a player if they had had a minor role coming off the bench, like Kyle Lowry as a 22-year-old in Houston in 2009. Nor did I count losses for a player if he was injured, like Kawhi Leonard in the 2017 Western Conference finals. But the win still counts for the players—Steph Curry and Kevin Durant—on the other side. It would get too complicated otherwise. The list could be expanded to include players like Draymond Green and Klay Thompson, but that wouldn’t add any new information since they have almost the exact same records as Steph.
以下是一些现役NBA球星的季后赛系列赛的胜负情况。这里我加入了几个限制条件:首先,如果这位球星只是以替补身份参加了这轮系列赛,那么这轮系列赛的胜负就不能记录到他的职业生涯之中,比如2009年的洛瑞。其次,如果一位球员在这轮系列赛一开始后就受伤了也是不能算进去的,比如2017年西决的小卡。我没有把追梦格林和克莱汤普森这样的球员加进去,毕竟他们的季后赛战绩和库里都是一样的。
Career Playoff Series RecordsPlayers Wins Losses
LeBron James 36 10
Kevin Durant 19 6
Kawhi Leonard 17 4
Steph Curry 16 4
James Harden 11 10
Kyle Lowry 9 5
Russell Westbrook9 8
Chris Paul 7 9
Paul George 5 8
Damian Lillard 4 7
Jayson Tatum 4 2
Jimmy Butler 4 5
Giannis Antetokounmpo3 4
Nikola Jokic 2 1
Joel Embiid 2 3
Anthony Davis 2 2
Donovan Mitchell 1 2
球星姓名 胜 负
詹姆斯 36 10
杜兰特 19 6
伦纳德 17 4
库里 16 4
哈登 11 10
洛瑞 9 5
威斯布鲁克斯 9 8
保罗 7 9
乔治 5 8
利拉德 4 7
塔图姆 4 2
巴特勒 4 5
字母哥 3 4
约基奇 2 1
恩比德 2 3
戴维斯 2 2
米切尔 1 2
The first thing that stands out is something we already knew: LeBron James is in his own universe. It shouldn’t be possible for one player to amass 36 playoff series wins, especially when they were the best player on all those teams. Even winning a title gets you only four series wins. Winning that many series means being consistently dominant for almost two decades.
显而易见,詹姆斯目前的地位是现役球员里无人能及的。当你面对联盟里最好的球员以及最好的球队时,能赢得36轮系列赛是一件多么艰难的事情。这么来说吧,如果一位球员可以在某个赛季赢下总冠军,也只是赢下4轮系列赛而已,赢下36轮系列赛,意味着詹姆斯在十几年的时间里都保持着统治地位。
LeBron doesn’t lose to bad teams and he doesn’t get hurt. Seven of his 10 losses came against teams that went on to win the title. Two others (2010 Celtics and 2009 Magic) made the NBA Finals. The worst loss of his career was to the 2006 Pistons, a team coming off two consecutive Finals appearances.
詹姆斯的职业生涯出勤率非常的高,他似乎从来不会受伤。他输给的对手往往是非常强大的球队,在他输掉的那10轮系列赛里,有7支球队最终赢得了总冠军,而2010年的凯尔特人队和2009年的魔术队最终也打进了总决赛。唯一一次的东部半决赛失利发生在2006年,詹姆斯的骑士在抢七大赛中最终不敌铁血军团活塞队,后者则在前两年都打入了总决赛。
His durability separates him from his peers. LeBron has missed one postseason due to injury (last season with the Lakers) in 17 seasons in the NBA. Kevin Durant has missed three in 12 seasons. Kawhi Leonard has missed two in nine seasons. Those two could eventually surpass LeBron in rings, but catching him in series wins might be impossible, especially given how much those players have already been injured in their 20s.
詹姆斯历史级别的耐操性是他的同龄人所不能比的。在他17年的NBA生涯里,他只因伤缺席过一个赛季(在洛杉矶湖人的上赛季)。而杜兰特在他12年的职业生涯里已经缺席了三个赛季了,伦纳德在他九年的职业生涯了也缺席了两次。也许在未来这两个人的总冠军数会超过詹姆斯,但系列赛的赢球数是绝对不可能超过詹姆斯的,毕竟詹姆斯在20多岁时可没受过什么大伤。
The list also shows how valuable big wings have become. Big wings are the new big men, largely because they would have been big men a generation ago. LeBron (6-foot-9 and 270 pounds) and Durant (7-foot and 245 pounds) are the same size as many of the greatest centers in NBA history, while Leonard is just as strong. All three can score at will on offense and take over games on defense. It’s hard to knock off a team in a best-of-seven series with a player who can do that.
这份榜单再一次的说明了一个高大强壮锋线对球队的重要性。詹姆斯(6尺9,270磅)、杜兰特(7尺,245磅)、伦纳德(6尺6,225磅)这三位球员就是高大侧翼的代表人物,他们在进攻端可以说是无所不能,在防守端也是异常凶悍。在季后赛这样七局四胜的赛制里,拥有他们的球队很难会输掉系列赛。
Kawhi’s career is a perfect example. The Spurs went 1-3 in playoff series in the three seasons before drafting him. They were an aging team that didn’t have enough size or athleticism on the wing to be a legitimate contender. Leonard instantly changed the franchise’s outlook and developed faster than people could have imagined. Kawhi was defending Durant in the Western Conference finals as a rookie, LeBron in the NBA Finals in Year 2, and winning Finals MVP in Year 3.
伦纳德就是一个典型的例子。在没有签来他的三个赛季,马刺的季后赛之旅相当坎坷,两次首轮出局,一次在西部半决赛被太阳队横扫。日渐衰老的GDP有些跟不上时代的潮流了,球队里缺少一个强有力的侧翼,这使得球队没有冲击总冠军的机会。伦纳德的到来立马解决了这个问题,他的进步比任何人想象的都要快,在他的菜鸟赛季,他就可以在西部半决赛里很好的限制杜兰特,2012-2013赛季,他在总决赛对詹姆斯的防守使他开始崭露头角,2014年,他更是在总决赛防住了詹姆斯成功当选总决赛最有价值球员。
Those three stars have dominated the league in the past decade. LeBron, Durant, and Kawhi have lost only four times to anyone but each other since 2012—the Grizzlies over the Thunder in 2013, the Clippers over the Spurs in 2015, the Warriors over the Cavs in 2015, and the Warriors over the Thunder in 2016.
在过去的十年里,这三位球星一直统治着联盟。自从2012年以来,詹姆斯、杜兰特和伦纳德三个人总共输过四轮系列赛,分别是2013年灰熊西部半决赛击败雷霆、2015年快船队首轮击败马刺、2015年勇士总决赛击败骑士以及2016年勇士西部决赛击败雷霆。
Golden State is the exception that proves the rule. Steph has an incredible playoff record in comparison to the other elite guards of the last generation in part because he was surrounded by waves of long and athletic wings even before Durant. There is no Warriors dynasty without players like Draymond, Klay, and Andre Iguodala to cover for Steph on defense and set him up on offense.
从上面可以看出,金州勇士是唯一一只打破这种规则的球队。与老一代的精英后卫所不同的是,库里拥有着令人难以置信的季后赛战绩。一部分原因得益于他和杜兰特组成了令人闻风丧胆的王炸组合,一部分原因在于球队里有追梦格林、克莱汤普森以及伊戈达拉这样球员在可以帮他填补防守上的漏洞的同时,也可以为他分担一部分的进攻压力,他和他的队友组建了一支王朝球队。
Curry stopped dominating the ball once Steve Kerr took over for the Warriors. Kerr went against the grain of the rest of the league, installing an equal-opportunity motion offense that used his star’s ability to threaten the defense off the ball to free up his teammates, rather than running a million high pick-and-rolls for Curry. There is a difference between Curry’s playoff record under Mark Jackson and Kerr; he went from averaging 8.2 assists per game in his first two postseason appearances under Jackson to 5.9 in five with Kerr.
科尔执掌勇士的教鞭后,将库里从球队的组织重任中解放了出来,减少了他每场比赛持球的时间和次数。在杰克逊的体系上,库里场均可以送出8.2次助攻,而在科尔的小球体系下,这一数据下降到场均只有5.9次。他不再为库里设计各种各样的挡拆战术,而是利用了库里极具威胁的外线投篮能力,进而可以牵制对方防守为队友创造空位投篮机会的这一特点,引领起了一股席卷联盟的小球风潮。对比于马克杰克逊,在科尔的执教下,库里的季后赛战绩有着天翻地覆的改变。
That’s the contrast between Steph and Damian Lillard. It’s easy for an elite defense like the Lakers’ this season to take the ball out of Lillard’s hands. That doesn’t work against Steph because the Warriors were designed to function with him off the ball. Despite having CJ McCollum in the backcourt, the Blazers have never had a Plan B. Lillard has spent his entire career dragging an overmatched team beyond its limits before it ultimately falls on its face. All seven of his playoff series losses have been either sweeps or gentleman’s sweeps, in which the team preserves some dignity by losing 4-1.
这就是库里和利拉德在打法上的区别。当面对湖人这样精英级别的防守时,利拉德很容易被夹击进而很难为球队组织有效的进攻,尽管开拓者有着CJ麦科勒姆这样的得分手,可球队从来没有为他设计过专门的战术。因此,一旦对手实施夹击利拉德的战术,球队就会陷入无休止的困境中,直至出局。这也是为什么在利拉德输掉的七轮系列赛里,要么是被横扫,要么是被绅士横扫(1-4输球,多少保留了些球队的尊严)。相反,夹击库里则是行不通的,因为他在比赛中做的更多的是无球跑动,而不是持球进攻。
History tells us there are limits to what a team built around a ball-dominant guard can do. Playing with a big wing is crucial for those guards. Five of Harden’s 11 wins came in three seasons with Durant, as did all nine of Westbrook’s. Four of Lowry’s nine wins came in one season with Kawhi.
无数的历史证明,以控球后卫为核心的球队想在季后赛里有所作为是一件很难的事情。球队要想突破上限必须要有一个强力的侧翼才行。哈登11轮季后赛的胜利中的5轮是和杜兰特一起拿的,威少有9轮系列赛的胜利也是和杜兰特一起,而洛瑞上赛季就在伦纳德身边拿到了4轮季后赛的胜利。
Lillard and Chris Paul never got to play with a player like that. Paul’s career has been defined by his Sisyphean quest to win a title as a 6-foot-1 guard. Lob City won only three playoff series despite all the hype. They needed Blake Griffin to have developed the refined perimeter skill set he displayed last season in Detroit while he still possessed his all-world athleticism. The timetables never quite aligned.
利拉德和保罗在他们的职业生涯里从没有和这样的前锋一起打过球。这位6尺1的后卫从进入NBA以来的梦想就是赢得总冠军,可惜天不遂人愿,尽管那几年空接之城的账面实力不俗,由于格里芬在外线始终没有太大的威胁,以及几个核心人员的巅峰期均不在同一时间段上,这支球队最终只能遗憾的留在了球迷的记忆里了。
Even bad luck becomes less important over a large enough time frame. The ball has bounced the wrong way for Paul several times in his career, but getting through some combination of Kawhi, KD, and LeBron would have been near impossible even in a best-case scenario. Take 2018, when Paul went down in Game 5 of the Western Conference finals. There’s no guarantee the Rockets would have beaten prime LeBron even if they had gotten past the Warriors.
在保罗十几年的职业生涯里,他的运气一直不是太好,摸不到西决地板更是在很长一段时间里成为了他诅咒。纵观他的整个职业生涯,他一直没有机会和詹姆斯杜兰特伦纳德这样的球员一起打球,2018年,在他和哈登的带领下,火箭在西部决赛一度3比2领先勇士,可惜这场过后保罗就伤了,进而导致勇士最终逆转火箭打进了总决赛。就算火箭最终击败勇士,缺少保罗的他们可能也无法战胜骑士
Two players caught between the guards and the big wings on this list are Paul George and Jimmy Butler. Neither has been able to consistently carry teams deep into the playoffs despite theoretically having the skills to do so. What separates them from the elite players at their position is 2-point percentage. Look at their career marks in the playoffs:
Career 2-Point PercentagePlayer2P%Kawhi55.2LeBron53.8KD52.7Butler46.5George46.3George and Butler have had some incredible postseason moments. But they have not been able to string enough of them together to have winning postseason records. George’s inconsistency flared up once again in the Clippers’ first-round series with the Mavs, when he swung between dominant performances and disappearing completely.
作为现役最大牌的两位锋卫摇摆人,巴特勒和乔治与那三位顶级球员之间还存在着一定的差距。尽管他们无论是从进攻端还是防守端都做的足够完美,但他们始终无法带领球队实现更大的进步,我们单从他们的季后赛两分球命中率就可以看出这一点:
球员 两分球命中率
伦纳德 55.2%
詹姆斯 53.8%
杜兰特 52.7%
巴特勒 46.5%
乔治 46.3%
巴特勒和乔治都有过一些令人印象深刻的季后赛表现,但就目前而言,他们还没做好将自己的个人表现和球队赢球结合到一起。在本赛季快船与独行侠的系列赛里,乔治这一点表现的尤为突出,他的状态起伏不定,始终无法稳定自己的表现。
The second-round series between the Heat and Bucks is a huge moment for Butler. He finally has a team built in his image in Miami. Now he needs to outduel Giannis Antetokounmpo. He has never done that before. Forget Kawhi’s miraculous shot to knock off the 76ers last season. Kawhi averaged 34.7 points on 53 percent shooting in the series, compared to 22 points on 44.3 percent shooting for Butler. Miami’s win in Game 1 on Monday was a great start, with Butler scoring 40 points compared to only 18 for Giannis.
热火与雄鹿的东部半决赛对巴特勒来说是一个巨大的考验,同时也是一个证明自己的机会。在第一场比赛里,巴特勒狂砍40分,带领球队先下一城,本赛季,他终于在迈阿密找到了一个适合自己的地方。上赛季的季后赛失利对于巴特勒来说是一个无法忘却的记忆,伦纳德用一记梦幻般的中投绝杀了他和他的76人。在那轮系列赛里,伦纳德场均可以得到34.7分,投篮命中率高达53%,而巴特勒场均只能得到22分,投篮命中率仅为44.3%。
This series is just as important for Giannis, who also lost a duel with Kawhi in last season’s playoffs. He was a project who needed time to develop into the player he is today, but that means he doesn’t have the long record of playoff success you would expect for a player with his accolades. Being outplayed by Butler in a season in which he won the MVP and Defensive Player of the Year would sour his reputation around the league. No one wants to be the star who always comes up short in the playoffs.
这轮系列赛对于字母哥来说来说同样也很重要。他在去年的东部决赛中也输给了伦纳德。作为本赛季的最佳防守球员以及常规赛MVP大热,没人想提前收拾行李回家钓鱼,如果他最终输给了巴特勒领军的热火,那么多少会有些让他感到难堪,毕竟,作为一名球星无法带领球队在季后赛取胜则证明他还算不上一名真正的巨星。
It’s too early to come to any conclusions about the younger players on the bottom of this list. But there are clear patterns when you break down the history of the playoffs in the 2010s. It will be fascinating to see if those patterns repeat in the 2020s.
现在对名单下面年轻球员进行分析讨论还为时过早,但如果你把这份名单和2010年那份名单里的年轻球员进行对比就会发现一些有意思的事情。相同的事情会再次发生吗?让我们拭目以待。