前ESPN选秀主管Chad Ford模拟选秀2.0
With the NBA Draft less than a week away on Nov 18th and it’s time for our second Mock Draft 2.0. The Mock Draft I’m compiling is based on what I’m hearing in conversations with NBA scouts and general managers and player agents. It’s not based on what I would do on draft night. I’ll put out one more of these on the morning of the draft.
It’s still a pretty confusing draft. Lots of trade talk right now, lots of rumors, lots of smoke, a little fire. It could be a very turbulent draft night.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves
LaMelo Ball
Illawarra
Point Guard
Age: 19
The Wolves continue to shop this pick heavily thought it still doesn’t appear that there is a clear suitor. There have been some rumblings that Charlotte might be a suitor, but given their recent professed interest in Russell Westbrook, they too look like they are in win now mode. Assuming that they can’t trade the pick on draft night, I still expect them to take the player they think will have the most trade value down the road. No, Ball doesn’t fit next to D’Angelo Russell and Karl Anthony-Towns. Forget about offense, it would be a defensive nightmare. But neither does Anthony Edwards (there aren’t enough shots for him) nor James Wiseman. So they take the player with the most trade value.
As far as fits go … Iowa State’s Tyrese Haliburton and Dayton’s Obi Toppin would be much better compliments to what the Wolves already have. Would new GM Gersson Rosas be willing to just suck it up and take the best player for them?
2. Golden State Warriors
James Wiseman
Center
Freshman
Memphis
Age: 19
The Warriors are also trying hard to trade the pick. There isn’t really anyone in this draft that could step in and contribute the way the Warriors need the help. They have a two to three year window to win a championship and rookies often aren’t going to be much help.
Teams including the Hawks, Knicks and Spurs have been rumored to be eyeing this pick. But it’s all smoke right now.
So if the Warriors can’t find a trade partner, they may make a long-term play for a player like James Wiseman and start rebuilding for the future while still competing for a championship. And hopefully, he’ll be able to give you some blocks, lobs and rebounds.
Two other sleepers worth looking at in Golden State: USC’s Onyeka Okongwu (who might be more NBA ready than Wiseman, but with a higher floor) or Tyrese Haliburton to play a Shaun Livingston esque role on the team.
3. Charlotte Hornets
Anthony Edwards
Georgia
Freshman
Guard
Age: 19
There has been a lot of buzz that Hornets are pursuing a Russell Westbrook trade … which would signal they might be in win now mode — or like 7th seed mode. That could signal a willingness to trade down or out.
With that said … there has been talk about Charlotte moving up to take James Wiseman or taking him at three if he’s still on the board. There has also been a lot of talk around the league about Okongwu going here at three. He’s a fit. But Charlotte may be able to move down a few spots and get him a little later. There is significant upside and it’s not really that much of a reach if they want to stay at three.
But if Edwards somehow is on the board at three, it’s going to be hard for Michael Jordan and company to pass on a player with all the physical tools to be a star. The Hornets have desperately pined for one for years and while I’m a bit of a Edwards skeptic, no one can deny his athleticism, size and strength at the position. If his lack of feel is due to his age and late start, could be a steal here.
4. Chicago Bulls
Tyrese Haliburton
Iowa State
Sophomore
Guard
Age: 20
There’s significant buzz here about Israel’s Deni Avdija landing in Chicago because of new president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas role in drafting international players in Denver. But others close to Chicago say that’s all speculation and that shoring up the culture in Chicago is of bigger concern. The Bulls backcourt is quite crowded, but no one on their roster has the long-term potential of Haliburton and he may be the best culture player in the draft. Ulm’s Killian Hayes is also a sleeper here I’m told.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
Deni Avdija
Israel
Forward
Age: 19
The Cavs are a weird team with two key veterans in the front court, two inconsistent young players in the backcourt and glaring hole at the wing. There is a lot of back and forth among sources between Avdija and Dayton’s Obi Toppin here of late.
Auburn’s Issac Okoro also has some fans in the front office, but it appears that it may be narrowing down to Avdija and Toppin.
Toppin is ready now. A better athlete and the better offensive player. But he’s not a great fit with Kevin Love and Larry Nance on the roster. Moving Love will be tough. Nance is easier to trade. But a tie breaker may go to fit. The Cavs need a wing and Avdija fits the profile. The upside is there. There are questions about the shot and defense. The floor for him is scarier than Toppin. But the ceiling might (I emphasize might) be higher.
I’m sticking with Avdija in 2.0 but it really could end up being Toppin.
6. Atlanta Hawks
Devin Vassell
Florida State
Sophomore
Wing
Age: 19
This is the first change in the Mock. The Hawks are tough to peg. All signs point to them being in win now mode and looking to make a playoff push next year. If they can’t move the pick, it may come down to who can help them now.
When Trae Young is your point guard, you need to try extra hard to provide some defensive support. Auburn’s Isaac Okoro seems like a logical fit for the Hawks given his defensive prowess. But I’ve heard a lot of support lately for Vassell who, while not the same level of defender as Okoro is a much better offensive player and can still defend multiple positions on the floor.
7. Detroit Pistons
Patrick Williams
Florida State
Freshman
Forward
Age: 19
The big rumor right now is that the Pistons, barring a huge drop from the likes of LaMelo Ball, are eyeing Florida State’s Patrick Williams. For many scouts Williams represents the player with the highest ceiling after Ball, Edwards and Wiseman are off the board. The Pistons are rebuilding and are less concerned with a player making an immediate impact than a long-term one. If that’s the case, Williams seems like a good play. USC’s Onyeka Okongwu, Ulm’s Killian Hayes and Dayton’s Obi Toppin are in the mix here too.
8. New York Knicks
Obi Toppin
Dayton
Sophomore
Power Forward
Age: 22
I continue to hear the Knicks are doing everything they can to move up — but the asking price to get in the Top 3 for a shot at LaMelo Ball may be too rich for their blood — Mitch Robinson, the No. 8 pick and either a future first rounder or RJ Barrett. That’s a lot.
If they can’t move up there will be a ton of pressure to take Toppin if he’s here. He’s high profile, is repped by CAA and seems like great value here at 8. But with a plethora of power forwards on the roster, will they really add another?
Hayes is the best value. His versatility, ability to defend both backcourt positions and his high basketball IQ would be a great fit next to R.J. Barrett in the backcourt. But after the Frank Ntlikina experience backfired, I’m not sure how much taste they have in another international point guard from France.
9. Washington Wizards
Onyeka Okongwu
USC
Freshman
Forward/Center
Age: 19
The Wizards are one of the few teams that have been trying to move up in the draft. There have been various names attached to them, but the one I hear most consistently is Okongwu. They desperately need a versatile athlete in the front court. He’s a perfect fit here if he’s still on the board. If they can’t move up to get him and he doesn’t slide, things get a little tougher.
No one knows whether John Wall will ever be John Wall again. And even if he is, adding Hayes and his versatility to the backcourt would be a huge boon for the Wizards.
10. Phoenix Suns
Killian Hayes
France
Age: 18
Guard
ESPN reported that the Suns are in conversations with the Thunder to land Chris Paul. If they get him, it’s likely that this pick will move onto the Thunder. I think that would be a much better deal for the Thunder than the Suns, but maybe a seventh seed is all Robert Sarver is after these days.
If they keep the pick, I continue to hear that the Suns are hoping that Hayes falls to them at No. 10. They think he’d be a great compliment in the backcourt to Devin Booker and at 10, I think he’s an absolute steal. But if he’s off the board, getting a versatile 3 and D wing like Okoro seems like another legit option for him.
11. San Antonio Spurs
Isaac Okoro
Auburn
Freshman
Wing
Age: 19
It’s rare to see Spurs trade and draft rumors. The club historically plays things very close to the vest. It’s rare that anything of value is going to leak out of San Antonio. So for know, I’m taking all the rumors that they are trying to move up in the draft, or down to take Tony Parker’s protege Theo Maledon with a grain of salt. Ditto the rumors that DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge and Patty Mills are on the way out. Of course it could be true, but if there’s smoke I don’t trust this time of year, it’s Spurs smoke.
Patrick Williams made a lot of sense if he’s on the board. Villanova’s Saddiq Bey does as well. But there’s value in Okoro at this point — the best young wing defender in the draft. His offense is shaky which could be a problem in San Antonio, but his work ethic fits the culture.
12. Sacramento Kings
Saddiq Bey
Villanova
Sophomore
Wing
Age: 20
I’m having a hard time getting a read on Sacramento at the moment, and so is everyone else in the league. For now people are plugging in whoever their analytics model ranks the highest — but not every teams model agrees and it’s not a given that despite hiring GM Monte McNair, that this pick will be based solely on the numbers. Given what else is available for Sacramento, I think he’s worth the risk here.
For now I’m going with Bey, the consensus next best 3 and D wing in the draft who provides the positional flexibility that the Kings need given a very uncertain roster. You can plug him into multiple positions.
13. New Orleans Pelicans
Jalen Smith
Maryland
Sophomore
F/C
Age: 20
The Pelicans are in the middle of so many different trade rumors now — swirling primarily around Jrue Holiday — that’s it’s tough to know exactly where they will be drafting and what they are looking for. Villanova’s Saddiq Bey’s name has been thrown around a lot, but I have him going one spot higher to the Kings.
Smith’s draft stock has been rising throughout the past few months and cracking the lottery would be a small surprise. But when you think about his size, shooting ability and fit next to Zion Williamson in the front court, he feels like a good fit.
14. Boston Celtics (via Grizzlies)
Kira Lewis Jr
Alabama
Sophomore
PG
Age: 19
The Celtics have been trying to package all of their picks for a veteran (ideally) or to move up (if they can’t get a vet) but so far, they’ve been coming up empty. Lewis seems like a really good fit here. Yes, the Celtics already have one little point guard, but don’t expect them to be deterred from Lewis, who may be the fastest player, end to end, in the draft. He’s also a young sophomore, shot the ball well at Alabama and has a lot of analytics pointing in his favor. I think this might be a small steal for the Celtics if he’s still on the board. RJ Hampton and Tyrese Maxey are other names to watch here I’m told.
15. Orlando Magic
Aaron Nesmith
Vanderbilt
Sophomore
Wing
Age: 20
The Magic have been involved in all sorts of trade rumors — from packaging Aaron Gordon to move up in the draft, to using this pick to add another veteran.
I had Jaden McDaniels here in my last draft and I still think he’s a possibility. He’s a reach, but the Magic, led by John Hammond, aren’t afraid to reach. After Ball, Edwards, Wiseman and RJ Hampton are off the board, I don’t think there’s a player with higher upside than McDaniels. But he also has significant question marks which could ultimately cause him to slide much further down the board.
That could push them toward another need with a much more proven player. The Magic continue to need shooting in the backcourt and with Nesmith, the best shooter in the draft, left on the board, it feels like a really good fit.
16. Portland Trailblazers
RJ Hampton
NZ Breakers
Guard
Age: 19
I keep hearing three names here, all of whom fit GM Neil Olshey’s love of highly ranked high school players who didn’t quite pan out during their first year out of school — Jaden McDaniels, Tyrese Maxey and RJ Hampton. Hampton arguably has the most upside because of his elite athleticism. McDaniels has more versatility and some argue is the highest upside player in this draft that isn’t in the Top 3. Maxey is a talent in his own right and while he doesn’t have the pop of Hampton or the size of McDaniel, he probably has the highest floor of the three.
17. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Nets)
Tyrell Terry
Stanford
Freshman
PG
Age: 19
Three point shooting is going to be a thing in Minnesota and with Nesmith off the board (he’d be a GREAT fit in Minnesota) I think they look to the next best thing. Terry has been steadily rising on boards and given his sweet jump shot, would be a great fit in Minnesota. There also seems to be some Precious Achiuwa buzz here as well.
18. Dallas Mavericks
Leandro Bolomaro
Argentina
Guard
Age: 20
Bolomaro is a bit of a polarizing prospect … his unique approach to the game turns some teams off and has other teams pegging him as the next Manu Ginobili. His contract situation with Barcelona means that he’s likely to spend a year, maybe two, in Europe before coming to the NBA. The Mavs front office has the best international scouting outfit in the NBA and don’t be shocked if they nab him, let him develop for a year or two overseas and then plug him into the starting line-up down the road. He’s really, really grown on me since my first Big Board. Arizona’s Josh Green is also getting looks here.
19. Brooklyn Nets (via Sixers)
Jaden McDaniels
Washington
Freshman
Forward
Age: 19
The Nets are in “win now” mode with with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving providing all the offensive firepower in Brooklyn next year. So why take a swing on a player like McDaniels who isn’t ready for prime time. I hear the Nets are looking to the future with this pick, not the present and will focus on the player with the most long-term upside — and that’s McDaniels. Alexsej Pokusevski is the other potential target.
20. Miami Heat
Tyrese Maxey
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
Age: 19
Placing yet another Kentucky player in Miami may feel a bit trite, but Maxey has many of the intangibles Pat Riley looks for in a guard and if he can play on the ball at the point as some scouts project (something he struggled with in Kentucky) he could be a real steal this late in the draft.
21. Philadelphia 76ers (via Thunder)
Desmond Bane
TCU
Senior
Guard
Age: 22
Bane’s stock continues to rise after stellar interviews with teams and for a team like Philly, that will likely prioritize shooting more than ever now that Darry Morey is the captain of the ship, this is a great fit — a savvy veteran that shot 44 percent from beyond the arc during his senior season at TCU.
22. Denver Nuggets (via Rockets)
Alekej Pokusevski
Serbia
PF/C
Age: 18
Pokusevski is one of the more challenging prospects in the draft to project. The combination of talent and size is off the charts, but his slight frame and lack of high level experience make him a major work in progress. The Nuggets have never been shy about drafting for potential and taking the time to wait. Pokusevski’s talent may be worth it.
23. Utah Jazz
Josh Green
Arizona
Freshman
Wing
Age: 19
Green’s defensive versatility, athleticism (he tested as one of the top athletes in the draft at the combine) and high basketball IQ are all major plusses if he’s still on the board here. He’s getting looks as high as Dallas at 18, so he might be gone. The lack of a consistent jump shot is the only major concern about his game.
24. Milwaukee Bucks (via Pacers)
Malachi Flynn
San Diego State
Junior
PG
Age: 22
There are several really good point guard options here, but I really love Flynn. He can just flat out play and pops when you watch him on film. He doesn’t have the high school rep of UNC’s Cole Anthony, but I think he can do more to help the Bucks win right now.
25. OKC Thunder (via Nuggets)
Precious Achiuwa
Memphis
Freshman
Forward
Age: 20
The Thunder have been in active in lots of different trade scenarios and there’s talk of them trying to move up in the draft. But if they are here, OKC’s Sam Presti has a type and Achiuwa, this late in the draft might be a perfect fit. He’s one of the most versatile defenders in the draft. If his offense ever came along, he’s a great get here.
26. Boston Celtics
Theo Maledon
France
PG
Age: 19
There’s no way the Celtics keep all three first round picks. Some of these picks will either be traded or used as draft-and-stash options. However while Maledon could use another year or two to develop in France, he wants to play in the NBA now and is resisting efforts by teams to treat him as a draft-and-stash player. Still, his size and versatility are interesting.
27. New York Knicks (via Clippers)
Cole Anthony
North Carolina
Freshman
PG
Age: 20
If the Knicks pass on a point guard with their first pick, they shouldn’t with the 27th pick. Anthony was projected as a lottery pick but a rocky freshman season at North Carolina made scouts question whether he’s peaked in college. At this point in the draft, the reward may outweigh the risk.
28. L.A. Lakers
Vernon Carey Jr.
Duke
Freshman
Forward/Center
Age: 19
The buzz on Carey the last few weeks has been interesting. He lost a lot of weight over the past few months, has been shooting the ball well in workouts and teams seem to be falling back in love with his potential.
29. Toronto Raptors
Isaiah Stewart
Washington
Freshman
Center
Age: 19
Given the potential woes the Raptors may have at center in the coming months, Stewart may be too good to pass on here. His length and high motor are both intriguing. Ten years ago, he’s a lottery pick. The game has changed, but I do think there’s still room for big men like Stewart .
30. Boston Celtics (via Bucks)
Zeke Nnaji
Arizona
Freshman
Center
Age: 19
It’s doubtful the Celtics keep this pick, but if they do, Nnaji might be a nice get here. He’s got more pop offensively than defensively but at this point in the draft could act as a serviceable back-up big for Boston.
来源:https://nbabigboard.com/mock-draft-2-0/
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