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NBA STANDINGS: PRE-SEASON EXPECTATIONS & MID-SEASON REALITY

拉脱维亚篮球分析师：NBA各队半程战绩短评——新科亚军有负厚望，尼克斯成最大惊喜

Without NBA regular season games during All-Star break there is a chance to look back on the first half of season. Which teams have surprised or disappointed? It’s hard to measure level of surprise or disappointment so I decided to compare ESPN pre-season rank (expectations) to NBA standings right before All-Star Break (reality). Yes, West is better than East, few teams are badly affected by injuries (especially in beginning of the season) and Covid-19, #1 ranked team theoretically can’t suprise or #30 ranked team can’t disappoint but in big picture we can have more or less adequate indicators of team’s success or failure. Almost all used team statistics in this article are per 100 offensive or defensive possessions.

在全明星赛来临、常规赛暂停的间隙，我们正好有一个机会去回顾一下前半个赛季。有哪些球队让人惊艳，又有哪些球队让人失望？其实这是很难去评判的，所以我决定用赛季前的排名预测和现在的实际排名来进行一下对比，并按照现实与预测的排名差来回答这个问题。显然，西部球队的战绩比东部球队的战绩更好一些，还有一些球队因为伤病（特别是赛季初）和新冠肺炎安全协议的缘故打的很糟糕。理论上讲，本文排名第一的球队不能说是最大惊喜，最后一名的球队也不算是令人失望至极。但从宏观角度看，这或多或少还是一个不错的评判球队成功与否的指示剂。（文中的所有球队数据大都基于每百回合的进攻效率和防守效率。）

ESPN Pre-season rank and NBA standings before All-Star Break.

ESPN赛季前的预测排名与NBA全明星前现实排名的对比图

Pre-Season expectations vs. Mid-Season reality.

各队实际排名与预测排名的反差（按照全联盟战绩排列，现实战绩截至全明星前为止）

纽约尼克斯：高出预测战绩15.5位（注：如球队战绩与另一队并列，则现实排位取前后两个位次的平均值）

New York is the biggest surprise of the season. Obviously Knicks made a right choice by hiring their 6th coach in 6 seasons – defensive specialist Tom Thibodeau. Not surprising that New York has the 2nd best defense in NBA (Def Rtg 108.8). Slow (slowest team in NBA) and defensive minded basketball so far works well. Opponents score the least points, takes the least shots and shoots with lowest accuracy against Knicks. Very good rebounding team. If defense is excellent then offensively they struggle. Except MIP candidate and All-Star Randle I don’t see too many other brilliant offensive players in their roster. Team from New York scores only 104.9 points per game (29th of 30). Team lacks of attempts/makes from 3-point line and points from transition offense, overall low FG percentage. Pick-and-roll is big part of team’s offense but being one of worst teams per assists per game might ask for better ball movement. But as we know - defense wins championships. In Knicks case they aren’t NBA Title contenders but their 19 wins almost already exceeds preseason predictions – 21.5 wins.

尼克斯无疑是本赛季最让人惊艳的一支球队。在连续六年聘请不同的教练后。显然，尼克斯请来防守专家汤姆-锡伯杜教练是个正确的选择。也许这样你就不会惊讶于尼克斯是目前为止NBA排名防守第二好的球队（防守效率值108.8）。由于节奏慢（NBA节奏最慢的球队）和球队注重防守，对手在面对尼克斯时得分最少，出手次数少，命中率低。并且尼克斯队在篮板球方面也做得的非常出色。如果说他们的防守很棒，那么他们的进攻就很挣扎。球队中除了最快进步奖候选人－全明星球员兰德尔外，其他人在进攻段表现得都很一般。球队每场比赛平均得分仅104.9（联盟倒数第二）。球队的三分出手次数不多，转换进攻得分不足，总的出手数少。挡拆是球队主要的进攻手段，但是由于球转移的不够好，使其成为了场均助攻最少球队之一。但是，我们都知道防守赢得冠军。虽然他们不是总冠军的有力争夺者，但其19场的胜利已经大大的超出了人们的预期。在此前的预测中，他们全季只能取得21-22个胜场。

菲尼克斯太阳  高出预测排名11位 

Second best team in Western Conference – it says a lot. “Before CP3 & After CP3” – all teams who added Chris Paul to their roster always had better season compared to previous one. Phoenix Suns winning percentage is up by 22% this season. D. Booker obviously needed some help. Excellent defense (3rd of 30) mixed with solid offense (8th of 30). Suns have done very good job of guarding 3-point line. “Slow” team (29th of 30 in pace). Team oriented offense – 27.6 assists per 100 possessions (1st of 30). Coach Monty William’s team are among leaders in 2-point field-goal and free-throw accuracy. Despite high accuracy from charity line Suns ranks last in free-throw attempts (30th of 30). Phoenix has won 16 of their last 19 games. Together with “bubble” (they won all 8 games) their W/L record is 32-11. It’s been a decade without play-offs for team from Arizona…

太阳在全明星前高居西部第二，这能说明很多问题。“有保罗前”和“有保罗后”的球队是截然不同的，任何球队在拥有了克里斯-保罗之后的战绩几乎总是比上个赛季的好。本赛季太阳的胜率上升了22％。德文－布克很明显需要一个这样的帮手。太阳队打出了出色的防守（联盟第三）和稳定的进攻（联盟第八），在三分球防守上的工作也做的很出色。他们的打法节奏慢（比赛节奏联盟倒二），但团队性极强，每百回合能送出27.6次助攻（联盟第一）。蒙蒂-威廉姆斯的队伍在两分球和罚球上的准确率都是联盟头名。不过尽管太阳队的罚球命中率很高，但其罚球次数很少（联盟倒一）。菲尼克斯队再在过去的19场比赛中已经赢得了16场比赛，如果加上去年复赛园区里的比赛（8胜0负），他们近43场比赛的战绩达到了32胜11负。看来，这支来自亚利桑那的球队终于要时隔十多年后重返季后赛了。

犹他爵士：高出预测排名11位 

Impressive! Well deserved 3 All-Stars (Mitchell, Gobert, Conley). Utah Jazz is #1 team in NBA at the moment. From January 21th to February 25th Utah won 21 of 22 games and only 2 times with less than 10 points... Very good both defensively and offensively. Coach Quin Snyder has found balance between individual play and teamwork. Utah is making 17.3 three-pointers a game, the most in NBA history. They also leads NBA in three-point attempt rate – 48.5% of their shots of all shots were three-pointers. Pick-and-Roll is big part of their game plan (1st of 30) and lot of their three-point attempts are off the dribble. Clarkson plays huge role in their success by coming off bench. Only 3.7% of points are scored from mid-range. Fewest post-ups in whole NBA. Important role in Utah Jazz defensive schemes plays 2x Defensive POY Rudy Gobert. Utah together with New York are best rebounding teams in League. Big question is if Jazz is ready to take it to the next level also in play-offs not only in regular season.

犹他爵士今年的表现非常迷人，他们完全配得上3个全明星名额（米切尔，戈贝尔，康尼）！爵士本赛季至今牢牢占据联盟头名，从1月21号到2月25号，犹他爵士赢得了22场比赛中的21场胜利，并且只有两场比赛的净胜分小于10，球队攻守两端上的表现近乎完美。奎因-斯奈德已找到球员个人能力与团队合作的平衡点。爵士平均每场比赛投中17.3个三分，创下NBA历史之最。同时，他们也是联盟三分球出手比例的领先者——总出手数中有48.5％来自三分线外。挡拆是他们主要的战术（挡拆频率联盟第一），其中伴有很多的持球三分投篮。克拉克森作为一个替补球员在球队中扮演了重要的角色。爵士仅有3.7％的得分是来自中距离，背打频率联盟最低。两届最佳防守球员鲁迪－戈贝尔在球队防守端的作用非常大。和尼克斯一样，爵士也是联盟中保护篮板球最好的的球队。对于爵士队来说，最大的问题是他们是否能将常规赛的好状态一直延续到季后赛去。

夏洛特黄蜂：高出预测排名10位 

Despite having more losses than wins (17-18) mid-season reality is better than expected for MJ’s team. Important role in Hornets so far successful season is decision to draft LaMelo Ball (No.3 pick) who very likely will be ROY. Also addition of Hayward so far has been positive. Charlotte is one of the youngest teams in NBA. Hornets play team oriented basketball (2nd of 30 in assists) and scores lot of points in transition. One of most effective benches in NBA. Offensively more effective out of paint. Below average team defensively – struggles with defensive rebounding and guarding of 3-point line. To make play-offs will be success for Hornets who were ranked 27th of 30 before the season by ESPN.

尽管胜场数还没有负场数多（17胜18负），但黄蜂赛季前半段的成绩已经比乔老板的预期要好多了。目前看来，球队能取得如此好的成绩很大程度要归功于今年选中的新人拉梅洛-鲍尔（第三顺位），后者今年极有可能成为最佳新秀，此外戈登-海沃德也渐入佳境。黄蜂作为联盟中最年轻的球队之一，却打出了很团队的篮球（联盟第二的助攻数）和大量的转换得分。他们拥有联盟中最有效率的替补军团，在油漆区外的得分很高效，但防守效率略低于联盟平均水准——他们在篮板球和三分防守上表现很挣扎。赛季之前，ESPN预测黄蜂队排名联盟27，进入季后赛就是他们本季最大的成功。

圣东安尼奥马刺：高出预测排名10位  

End of 2019/2020 NBA season – „for first time in 23 seasons, Spurs miss playoffs.” Only ranked 20th of 30 teams pre-season they silences skeptics by having 7th place in tough Western Conference. Disciplined team basketball. Better defensive than offensive team. 15.1% of Spurs points comes from mid-range area (1st of 30 in NBA). Coach Popovich resists to follow NBA basketball trends – his team are second in league in 2-point attempts but one of the last in 3-point attempts. They also among leaders in drives to the basket per game. Lack of points from C position players. Defensively they do excellent job by guarding three-point line and not letting opponents to get to free-throw line. Just like last year Spurs ranks at the bottom of table in dunks per game. San Antonio was only team with winning record without All-Star.

上个赛季结束时，马刺队23年以来第一次无缘季后赛。尽管ESPN在本赛季前预测马刺只会位列连盟第20位。但目前他们已悄无声息地在强敌如云的西部中冲到了第七。作为一支纪律严明、擅长防守的队伍，马刺有15.1％的得分来自中距离（联盟第一）。波波维奇教练没有紧跟魔球潮流，马刺的两分球出手次数联盟第二多，三分球出手次数却是最少的。此外由于缺少来自内线大个的得分，他们还是场均外线突破次数最多的球队之一。他们出色的防守降低了对手的三分命中率，并减少了他们得到罚球的机会。另外和上赛季一样，他们的场均扣篮得分还是联盟最少的。值得一提的是，马刺是目前联盟中唯一的一支无人入选全明星却还能创造五成以上胜率的球队。

芝加哥公牛：高出预测排名5位 

There is more help needed for Lavine if Bulls want to take it to the next level. The absence of Markkanen (missed 14 games) and Porter (16 games; team’s highest paid player) hurts the team. Bulls started season with 4-8 but later played better by winning 12 of 22 games. I would say overall Bulls are mediocre NBA team except Lavine who plays in All-Star level. Coach Donovan team play fast-paced basketball but it also leads to 15.6 turnovers per game (3rd of 30). They shoot 2-pointers with high accuracy but don’t get to the free-throw line as often they would like to. One of the more effective benches in NBA. LaVine and White became the first teammates in NBA history to each make at least eight 3s in the same game (vs. New Orleans). Only ranked 24th in pre-season they proved that they can compete for play-off spot in Eastern Conference. 

如果公牛队想达到更高的水平，就需要给拉文找更多的帮手。马尔卡宁（缺席14场）和波特（缺席16场 ，而且他是球队目前的第一高薪）的缺席伤害了球队的战绩。公牛开局虽然只有4胜8败，但之后打得好多了，22场中赢了12场。总体上看，我认为公牛队除了全明星级别的拉文外，其他人都表现的一般。多诺万教练喜欢快节奏的比赛，但这也带来了场均15.6次的失误（联盟第三）。他们的两分球命中率很高，但是没有和他们所预想的一样得到太多站上罚球线的机会。公牛是替补阵容效率最高的NBA球队之一。拉文和怀特成为了NBA历史上第一个在同一场比赛中至少都投进8记三分的队友组合（对阵鹈鹕），赛季前被预测排在联盟第24的他们如今已经在为进入东区季后赛而竞争了。

克利夫兰骑士：高出预测排名4.5位  

Lowest ranked team by ESPN before season playing without their highest paid player K.Love (only played 2 games) is having their best mid-season record in Post-Lebron era (38.8% games won). Stacked with big men (Love/Drummond/McGee/Allen) it would make sense to make trade sooner or later. Cleveland started with 9-9 record but only won 5 of 18 games afterwards. Coach Bickerstaff’s team had painful 10 games losing streak by losing every game by -20.9 average. One of their season’s bright spots – Cavaliers beat Brooklyn Big 3 in their first game. Cleveland is one of the worst offensive teams which ranks last in 3-point attempts and 3-point FGM % but ranks 2nd in 2-point attempts in NBA. Since they have lot of C position players and guards who prefers to drive to the basket rather than shoot from outside they are least effective team from outside of paint. Overall bad shooting team. The most turnovers in NBA per 100 possessions. Ranked both 29th of 30 in opponents field goal % and 3-point field goal %. Because of Cavs were ranked last in pre-season rank Cavaliers can’t dissapoint but only can surprise.

作为一支赛季前被ESPN预测为联盟垫底，且球队最高薪球员凯文－乐福无法上场（仅出场2次）的球队，骑士却创造了“后勒布朗时代”最好的赛季中段成绩（胜率38.8％）。囤积的大量内线（乐福／德拉蒙德／麦基／阿伦）使得之后的的交易将变得十分重要。骑士队开局一度取得9胜9败的成绩，但之后却仅仅在18场中赢得了5场，比克斯塔夫教练的球队近10场的场均输分已经达到令人痛苦的20.9分。他们赛季最大的亮点之一就是在篮网三巨头的首秀中抢走了风头。骑士目前仍是联盟中最差的进攻球队之一，三分球出手次数和命中率均排在联盟末尾，两分球出手次数却位居联盟第二。由于他们有多个高大内线，后卫们又更倾向于去选择攻击篮筐而不是外线跳投。这也导致了他们成为油漆区外命中率最低的球队之一。哪怕从整体上讲，他们的命中率还是很差。骑士还是联盟中每百回合最多失误的球队。限制对手的两分命中率和三分命中率也分别只排在倒数第二和第一。当然了，由于赛季前骑士已经被预测为联盟倒一，所以这样的战绩完全不能算是失望，而应该是惊喜了。

费城76人：高出预测排名4.5位  

The best team in Eastern Conference. There are 2 different 76ers teams: one with Embiid (23 wins and 7 losses) and without Embiid (1 win and 5 losses). MVP level season for Embiid is one of the keys to 76ers success this season. Also addition of Curry and Green helps to solve Philly’s long lasting problem of spreading the floor around Embiid and Simmons. One of the best defensive teams in League. Coach Rivers team leads NBA in free-throws attempts and makes, fast-break points ,points off turnovers and post-ups per game. Philadephia is one of teams who are successful without focusing on 3-point shooting (29th of 30 in 3-point attempts). They play fast and aggressive (21.5 personal fouls drawn per game). In pre-season rakings 76ers were ranked below Miami and Boston but mid-season reality is quite opposite. Team’s W/L record could look even better if team wasn’t badly affected by Covid-19 (In January 9, 2021 vs. Nuggets only 7 players were available). Healthy Embiid = NBA Title contender.

76人是东区前半程最好的球队，但在有恩比德和没恩比德时，他们是两支截然不同的球队：恩比德上场（23胜7败）恩比德缺席（1胜5败）。打出MVP级别表现的恩比德是76人这个赛季成功的关键。塞思-库里和丹尼-格林的存在帮助费城解决了长期存在的问题——在恩比德和西蒙斯同时在场时如何拉开空间。他们是联盟中最好的防守型球队之一，里弗斯教练带队打出了联盟最多的场均罚球次数和命中数、快攻得分、利用失误得分和封盖数。费城不是一支依靠三分投射的的球队（联盟倒二的三分出手数），他们打得很快，侵略性强（场均21.5次的个人造犯规数）。赛季前ESPN预测76人的排名会在热火和凯尔特人之下，然而现在恰恰相反。如果不是被新冠肺炎影响，其胜率还会更好（1月9号对掘金的比赛中仅7人有资格出场）。如果恩比德健康，他们一定会是NBA总冠军的有力争夺者。

俄克拉荷马雷霆：高出预测排名3.5位

„OKC Thunder rebuild is officially underway.” We can’t expect a lot from Oklahoma City this season but their 15-21 record in Western Conference is far from bad. Very good season for Gilgeous-Alexander (23.2 points per game with 51.1 FG%). Thunder has solid defense (7th of 30) and it compensates their worst offense in NBA (Off Rtg 104.5). One of the worst 3-point shooting teams and they also struggle with offensive rebounding. They are #1 per drives per game but at the same time only 27th best team in in-paint effiency. Overall not too many positive things could be said about Oklahoma offense in general including having one of the least effective starting fives in NBA. Defensively they are doing good job by not letting opponents get to the free-throw line. OKC player Lu Dort might be considered as probably the highest-effort defensive player in the NBA.

雷霆队的重建已经正式开始，所以我们不能对这个赛季的他们要求太多。但是位于西部的他们仍取得15胜21负，这个成绩已经很不错了。谢伊-吉尔杰斯-亚历山大这个赛季打得很棒（场均23.2分，命中率51.1%）。雷霆队坚固的防守（联盟第七）恰好弥补了他们糟糕的进攻（每百回合得分104.5）。他们是联盟中三分投射最差的球队，进攻篮板球得也不好，虽然是联盟中冲击篮筐次数最多的球队，却有着最差的篮下进攻效率。整体上说，他们在进攻端没有太多的办法。但他们对持球人的防守做的很好，没有让对方获得太多罚球。雷霆队的吕冈茨-多尔特或许称得上是NBA中防守最努力的人。

金州勇士：高出预测排名1.5位

After Klay Thompson suffered season ending injury Warriors chances to win NBA Title again (after two seasons) basically were gone and also possibility of not making play-offs is still real. Golden State had the worst record last season (15-50) but it was because of absence of Steph and Klay for most of the season. The start of Warriors season wasn’t too promising after 3 defeats with 20 or more points in first 2 weeks but they look much better now mainly thanks to Curry’s excellent season. He also scored season-high 62 points against Portland. Very good season for 2014 NBA 1st draft pick Wiggins. After historically bad shooting (especially three-pointers) in the beginning of the season Oubre Jr. continued his season by shooting much better. Rookie Wiseman also plays important role in this team. Warriors with their on ball-movement and players movement based offense ranks 3rd of 30 teams in assists per 100 possessions. They play fast (2nd of 30 in pace) and incorporates lot of off-ball screens in their offense (1th of 30) but they don’t play pick-and-roll often (30 th of 30). Still Warriors defense is much better than their offense. Steve Kerr’s team only allows opponents to make 44.3% of their field goal attempts but struggles with rebounding. One of the leading teams per dunks per game.

在克莱－汤普森因伤赛季报销后，勇士（在两个赛季后）重夺NBA总冠军的机会基本上是没有了，同时无缘季后赛的可能也不容忽视。由于克莱和斯蒂芬的长期缺席，勇士在上个赛季打出了联盟最差的成绩（15胜50败）。在赛季前两周经历了三场分差大于20分的惨败后，人们都觉得金州的光芒似乎不会再现了。但现在由于库里的出色表现，他们又变得好了起来。库里在面对开拓者时也创下了62分的单场得分纪录。2014年的状元秀威金斯表现也很不错，乌布雷在经历了历史上最坏的开局投篮表现（特别是三分命中率）后也开始找到了投篮的手感，变得更好了。新秀怀斯曼也同样在球队扮演起了重要的角色。在进攻端，由于勇士队在球的转移和人的移动方面都做的很好，所以他的每百回合助攻数排名第三。在进攻端，他们的比赛节奏快（联盟第二）并混有很多的无球掩护（联盟第一），但他们基本不打持球挡拆（频率联盟倒一）。勇士的防守依然比他的进攻出色。史蒂夫-科尔的弟子们能将对手的命中率限制到44.3％，但球队在篮板球的保护上做的不够好。另外，勇士还是本赛季场均扣篮次数最多的球队。

孟菲斯灰熊：高出预测排名1位

One of the youngest teams in League was seriously affected by Covid-19 so Grizzlies only have played 32 games (lowest in NBA). Both ranked in the middle before the season and also in mid-season standings at the moment. Memphis plays team basketball with Ja Morant leading the squad. One of the best benches in League. Grizzlies focus on driving to the basket (2nd of 30) rather than shooting from outside. Coach Jenkins team leads the NBA in 2-point field goals attempted per game and big portion of their points comes from painted area. Pretty good defensive team. Hopefully for Grizzlies they will take step further and will forget painful loss in first-ever play-in tournament in NBA history where they lost to Portland.

作为联盟中最年轻的球队之一，灰熊队受新冠肺炎的影响很大，所以至今只打了32场比赛（联盟最少）。赛季之前ESPN对他们的预测和他们现在的排名是差不多的。灰熊队是一支由莫兰特带领、主打团队篮球的球队，也是联盟中板凳实力最强的球队之一。灰熊队更倾向于攻击篮下（突破次数联盟第二）而非外部投篮。詹金斯教练的球队在两分球的命中率上领跑全联盟，很大一部分得分来源于内线，在防守方面做的很好。我希望灰熊队未来能更进一步，并且不要重蹈在史上第一次的附加赛中输给开拓者的覆辙。

亚特兰大老鹰：高出预测排名1位

Atlanta did a good job during off-season by adding Capela, Bogdanovič, Gallinari and Rondo to their roster to help Hawks and Trey Young to get to the next level. It’s hard to they if they must be happy about their season so far or not but most NBA fans will agree that it is more promising than in those we have seen in recent years. Atlanta started very good – 4 wins in first 5 games. One of the reasons Atlanta didn’t continue season that well as they want was injuries of Bogdanovič, Gallinari, Rondo and Hunter. Atlanta is better offensive team than defensive team. Their strengths offensively is getting to the free-throw line and offensive rebounding. Capela had NBA season-high 26 rebounds per game (vs. Detroit). Atlanta players are among leading per dunks per game. One of the worst benches in NBA. Maybe firing head coach Pierce who was winning 34.4% of games as head coach of Atlanta Hawks for 2.5 seasons will help. In Eastern Conference Atlanta must make play-offs with this roster.

亚特兰大在休赛季中做了很棒的引援工作，引进了卡佩拉、波格丹诺维奇、加里纳利和隆多等名将，旨在帮老鹰和特雷-杨达到更高的水准。对于他们来说，目前的成绩既不算令人满意也未必令人失望，但是球迷大多都认同他们比起近几年更有希望了。老鹰的开局打的很好，前五场中赢了四场，但由波格丹诺维奇、加里纳利、隆多和亨特等人的伤停，所以他们没有如他们所想的那样延续开季的势头。老鹰是一支攻强于守的球队。他们进攻端的最大优势就是造罚球和进攻篮板。卡佩拉目前保持着本赛季联盟的单场篮板纪录（对活塞一战抢到26个），多名球员在场均扣篮次数榜上身居高位。老鹰的板凳球员表现是联盟最差的之一。也许炒掉主教练皮尔斯是对球队是有帮助的，其在老鹰队过去的两个半的赛季里带队胜率仅为34.4％。以老鹰队的阵容来说，在东区打进季后赛应该是最基本的要求。

译者注：截至译文完工时，卡佩拉的单场篮板纪录已经被戈贝尔（28个）打破。

波特兰开拓者：高出预测排名1位 

First part of the season for coach Terry Stotts team is pretty good despite both McCollum and Nurkič missed 2/3 of games. Portland won 6(!) games in 8 days (from 2.10 to 2.18) without both these players. Pick-and-roll is big part of Portland’s offense since they have 2 really good pick-and-roll players who controls the ball most of the time. That leads to only 20.2 assists per game (30th of 30) but also to very low turnorver rate. Since LA Lakers Davis is out with injury Portland leads NBA in isolations per game (Lakers led league in isolations before AD’s injury). They shoot a lot 3-pointers (furthest average shot distance in NBA – 15.9 feet) but have 2nd fewest drives to the basket per game. Only 32% of points comes from painted area. If offense (7th of 30) is pretty good then they have to must do better job in defensive end of the floor (28th best defense in NBA). Rebounding is a problem for this team but when it comes to clutch time it’s „Dame Time”.

尽管麦科勒姆和努尔基奇合计缺席了三分之二的比赛，但特里-斯托茨执教的队伍在前半程打的可以说是很棒了。从2月10日到18日，波特兰人在缺少两个主力的情况下8天内赢了6场比赛。由于们拥有两个擅打挡拆、喜欢长时间控球的球员，所以挡拆成为了开拓者进攻战术中重要的部分。这导致他们的场均助攻数很少，只有20.2次（联盟倒一），但也促成了他们极低的失误率。自从湖人队的安东尼－戴维斯受伤后，开拓者成为了联盟中场均单打次数最多的球队（湖人队在戴维斯受伤之前是联盟第一），他们的三分出手次数很多（而且投得很远，他们平均出手距离达到了离篮筐15.9英尺，联盟第一 ），场均攻筐的次数则是联盟第二少的，且仅有32％的得分是来自油漆区。他们的进攻足够好（联盟第七），但在场上必须要做好防守（联盟倒二）。篮板球的保护是这支球队的主要问题。但每当打进关键时刻，利拉德的表演时间就到了。

布鲁克林篮网：低于预测排名0.5位 

Brooklyn’s Big 3 (Harden, KD and Irving) have taken NBA offense to next level. They are on their way to have best offense in NBA history. Even without Harden their expectations before the season were high – nothing else but NBA Title. Nash’s team leads NBA in True Shooting % - 62.1. For one of the oldest teams in NBA. 3-point shooting is big part of their game and they are the leading team per out-paint effiency. Brooklyn rely mostly on their starters and perimiter players but probably addition of Griffin might improve their game near basket . Nets won 8 games in a row in February. Very Important role in their offense has 2019 NBA 3-point contest winner Joe Harris who shoots 3-pointers with 50.6(!) % accuracy and is one of the best catch-and-shoot players in today’s basketball. No questions, this is and will be the best offense this season but their defense is far from good (only 26th of 30), especially paint defense (opp. paint points – 50.5, 3rd of 30). Theoretically it’s not necessary for Nets to have really good defense to win NBA Title, they simply will score more points than opponets by playing just ok defense... Still we haven’t seen Big 3 together playing for longer period of time but combination 2 of 3 works great.

拥有三巨头（哈登，杜兰特和欧文）的篮网已将联盟顶级进攻的标准带到了一个新的级别。他们正在创造出NBA历史上最高效的进攻。即使在赛季前哈登还未被交易时，人们对他们的期待也是很高的。NBA总冠军就是他们的唯一目标。纳什的球队在真实命中率榜上高居联盟第一，达到62.1％。而作为联盟中平均年龄最大的球队之一，三分球是他们非常重要的武器，他们在油漆区外的出手效率也是联盟最高之一。布鲁克林对于先发球员和外线球员的依赖度极高，但格里芬的加盟也许会提高他们的近筐终结能力。篮网在二月打出了一波八连胜，2019年的3分大赛冠军乔-哈里斯在进攻中扮演了重要的角色，三分命中率达到了50.6％，是当今篮球世界中最好的接球投篮手之一。毫无疑问，这个赛季的篮网队会成为最好的进攻球队，但是他们的防守离“好”还差的远（防守效率联盟倒数第四）。特别是对油漆区的防守（每百回合失分50.5,联盟第三）。但理论上讲，篮网不一定需要打出极好的防守才能赢得NBA总冠军，他们只需要比对方得更多的分就足够了。我们还没有见到三大巨头能够同时在场磨合很长时间，但哪怕是他们两两之间联手后的表现也已经很不错了。

萨克拉门托国王：低于预测排名0.5位

„Who is the best offense in the NBA? No, not the Nets – it’s whoever is playing Sacramento” K.Goldsberry. Sacramento Kings doesn’t surprise. If offense is above average then their biggest problem is their historical bad defense. As most bad defensive teams they struggle with rebounding. Opponents shoot with highest field goal percentage against Sacramento. Opponent’s 40.3% from 3-point line also doesn’t sound good. Also paint defense is the worst in NBA by allowing 52.4 points per game. Offensively 47.3% of Kings points comes from painted area (3rd of 30). After winning 7 of 8 games in the end beginning of February they experienced 9 games losing streak in 16 days... I hope that there are hope to end the longest NBA playoff drought but definitely not by letting opponents making-a-rain. Not the best time to be Sacramento fan although Sacramento keep winning more games in recent years.

ESPN的专家Goldsberry曾戏言：“哪支球队的进攻是联盟中最好的？是篮网队吗？不，是与国王打比赛的球队。”如果说他们的进攻还在联盟水准之上，那么他们的最大问题就是历史级别的糟糕防守了。和其他大多数防守糟糕的球队一样，他们在对篮板球的保护上表现得很挣扎，而对手面对国王时的命中率也是联盟最高的。让对手的三分命中率达到40.3％不是个好的选择，而且国王对于内线的防守也很糟糕，让对手场均得54.2分。至于进攻端，国王队的主要得分来自油漆区内（联盟第三）。在一月末二月初之际，国王队一度取得了8场比赛中的7场胜利，可在之后，他们却又经历了一波长达16天的连败。我希望他们能尽快结束持续多年的季后赛荒，不要让对手再下“三分雨”了。对于球迷来说，现在不是看国王球的最好时候，尽管他们现在的胜率已经是近几年来比较好的了。

达拉斯独行侠：低于预测排名1位

Dallas had high expectations for this season after playing very good and entertaining basketball in „bubble” despite painful loss to Clippers . It seemed that duo Luka & Porzingis finally works together. But again... KP missed the start of the season with right knee injury and still hasn’t played his best basketball this season (recently critisized for his defense). Luka will get his shots/points/assists but KP & teammates must be ready and step up to reach next level. Mavs started by winning only 9 of 23 games but continue with very solid 9-2 W/L record. Dallas had the most efficient offense last season but their struggled in defense (18th of 30) but it seems that nothing much has changed in this season. Dallas still shoots lot of 3-pointers but not as much as previous season when they had Seth Curry (one of the best 3-point shooters in NBA history by 3-point FG%) in their roster. Pick-and-roll is big part of their offense and since Dončič controls the ball in his hands most of the time. Mavs overall turnover rate is one of the lowest in NBA. Team with huge potential.

尽管上个赛季最终惜败于快船队，但独行侠队在复赛中表现得很出色，一时之间吸粉不少，这也让人们对本赛季的他们有着很高的期望。东契奇和波尔津吉斯这对组合好像已经磨合得不错了。但是，伤病再次出现了……波尔津吉斯因膝伤缺席了赛季前段的比赛，且迄今还没有找到他最好的状态（近期他的防守已经受到人们的广泛批判）。卢卡的投篮／得分／助攻一直都很稳定，但波尔津吉斯和队友们则需要做好准备，他们同心协力才能让球队达到更高的水平。独行侠队在开季的23场比赛中仅赢了9场，但之后的战绩却是非常稳定的9胜2败。达拉斯上个赛季有着联盟最高的进攻效率，但是他们的防守很挣扎（联盟18）且这个赛季也没太大的改变。他们的三分出手仍然很多，但没有上个赛季小库里（NBA历史上命中率最高的三分投手之一）在队时那么多了。自从东契奇掌控球权后，挡拆是他们主要的进攻方式。独行侠整体的失误率在联盟中是很低的。这支球队未来潜力无限。

丹佛掘金：低于预测排名1位

I don’t know if Nuggets fans are happy with 6th place in Western Conference especially after reaching Western Conference finals last season. Anyway they are only 4 wins away from Phoenix who ranks 2nd. Nuggets started with only 1 win in 5 games but later they continued to play better by winning 20 of next 31 games. Jokič is one of MVP candidates. His 50 points + 12 assists game this season is for C position player is something extraordinary. Denver traditionaly play very good at home (Pepsi Center located in highest altitude among all NBA team arenas) but this season when most of teams don’t have spectators they don’t have this advantage – only 56.3% home games won. One of the slowest teams in NBA (28th of 30). Very good offensive team but mediocre defensive team. Coach Malone team beats opponents by huge point difference quite often. Denver is most effective team in painted area but at the same time they don’t drive to the basket often (29th of 30). One of top teams per post-ups per game.

我不清楚丹佛的球迷是否对他们目前西区第六的排名感到高兴，特别是在上个赛季进入西区决赛的情况下。可不管怎么说，他们离排名第二的太阳队仅差4个胜场。掘金虽然在开局前五场比赛里只赢了一场，但之后迅速找到状态，拿下了31场中的20场的胜利。约基奇是今年MVP的最有力争夺者之一。作为一个大个内线球员，他本赛季的那次单场50分+12次助攻的表现堪称超凡绝伦。丹佛人以往更习惯于在主场打比赛（百事中心所处的地区海拔是联盟中最高的）但当本赛季大多数球赛无观众进场时，这个优势似乎有所削弱——他们今年只有56.3％的主场胜率了。作为联盟中最慢的球队之一（节奏数联盟倒数第三），他们的进攻很好，但防守却很一般。马龙教练的球队经常以很大的分差击败对手。掘金有着很高的内线得分效率，但与此同时却有着很低的攻筐频率（联盟倒二）。另外，他们是场均背打次数最多的球队之一。

底特律活塞：低于预测排名1位

In ESPN pre-season predictions Detroit was 28th of 30 teams and they doesn’t surprise, they have second worst record in NBA and I don’t think that getting rid of team’s highest paid player Griffin will improve their chances this season. Only ray of hope this season is Jeremy Grant who might be leading MIP candidate. Casey’s team started with 2 wins in 11 games and didn’t improve drastically afterwards. Team heading into total rebuild. Young but slow team with inexpressive offense. Defense is slightly better than offense (18th of 30) although opponents shoots with one the highest FG% against Pistons. One of positive things in Pistons game is getting to charity line quite often. One of the worst teams in paint effiency and clutch time. Can you name 5 Detroit Pistons players right now?

在ESPN的赛季前预测中，活塞被放在了联盟倒数第三的位置，所以如今他们排在联盟倒数第二位的现实并不让人感到意外。此外我并不认为匆忙处理掉队内最高薪球员格里芬对他们来说是个好的选择，杰拉米-格兰特也是MIP的一大热门，他大概会是活塞本赛季的最大亮点。凯西的球队以2胜9负开局，此后也没有什么起色。球队彻底朝着重建的方向进行了。作为一支年轻的球队，他们节奏较慢，进攻上表现很一般。在防守端的表现则稍好些（联盟第十八位），尽管对手在活塞面前会打出很高的命中率。活塞队的比赛做的最好的地方就是经常得到罚球的机会，但在内线得分效率和关键时刻的攻防方面，他们都是联盟表现最差的球队之一。话说，你能立即想起五个现活塞队员的名字吗？

洛杉矶快船：低于预测排名3位

Ranked third pre-season by ESPN, sixth before All-Star break. Disappointing end of the 2019/20 NBA season for Clippers also ended Doc Rivers era (7 seasons as head coach). Tyronn Lue will have a chance to coach even better Clippers roster than last season . Kawhi, George, Beverley, Zubac, Jackson, Morris still with the team + additions of Ibaka, Batum and Kennard. Clippers is one of the oldest and slowest teams in NBA. Los Angeles team has very good offense (3nd of 30) but their defense is average (16th of 30). Coach Lue team started season with impressive 16 wins in 21 games but afterwards they lost more games than won (8-9). 10 of 24 (!) Clippers wins this season are with +19 points or more. Best 3-point shooting team in NBA (41.9%) but it ranks only 15h in 3-point attempts. Also best free-throw shooting team in league. Only 36.6% of their points comes from paint (29th of 30). This team is serious title contender but I think their problem is their psychology. As an example I can mention 73:124 (27:77!) loss to Dallas Mavericks. Paul George struggles in clutch situations and it will be very important for whole team to play good at the end of the game if they ready to win NBA Title.

赛前被ESPN预测排名联盟第三的快船，在全明星赛前仅排在了第六。在令人失望地结束上个赛季后，道格-里弗斯也结束了其在快船的7年执教生涯，泰伦-卢获得了转正的机会。相比于上个赛季，快船在阵容上是有所提高的。他们保留了伦纳德、乔治、贝弗利、祖巴茨、雷吉和莫里斯等骨干，并补充了伊巴卡，巴图姆和肯纳德三大新援。快船是联盟中平均年龄最大和节奏最慢的队伍之一，有着联盟一流的进攻效率（联盟第三），但防守效率却仅为联盟平均水准（第16）。卢接手后的球队开季打得不错，21场比赛中赢了16场，之后却一度胜少输多（8胜9败）。在其赢得的24场比赛中，有10场的分差都在19分以上。作为联盟中三分命中率最高的球队（41.9％），他们的三分出手数却仅排联盟第15位。他们的罚球命中率是联盟第一。但只有36.6％的得分来自内线（联盟倒二）。作为NBA总冠军的有力争夺者，快船最大的问题就是他们的心理素质，比如他们以73-124输给达拉斯的那场比赛（半场结束时被打了个27:77）。保罗-乔治在关键时刻的表现也难以令人满意，而整个球队在关键时刻能否维持住正常的表现将会成为这支球队赢下NBA总冠军的关键因素。

华盛顿奇才：低于预测排名3位

Finally there is light at the end of tunnel. I guess lot of NBA fans were intrigued to see how Wizards will look after Westbrook addition to their roster but it turned out that in the beginning of the season Wizards played much better without Westbrook on court. Despite multiple triple-doubles W/L record after first 23 Wizards games: without Westbrook 2-14, with Westbrook 4-3... Also multiple high scoring games by Beal didn’t help to win games. Team started with 6-17 but continue with very solid 8-3 in next 11 games. Latvian Laser Bertans also struggled from 3-point line in the beginning of the season. T.Bryant suffered season-ending knee injury. Good thing is that Washington is only 5 wins away from 4th placed Boston Celtics and they still have time to save their season. One of the biggest problems offensively is team’s low 3-point shooting percentage (34.4%, 28th of 30). Only 9 fast break points per game. Positive that coach Brooks team is aggressive and gets to the free-throw line very often (2nd of 30). One of the least effective teams in paint. Together with Golden State and Milwaukee they are teams who ranks at the bottom per pick-and-roll frequency (ball-handler).

隧道的尽头终于要迎来曙光了。我想大部分球迷都对拥有威斯布鲁克的奇才感到好奇，但在本赛季的开局阶段，没有威斯布鲁克奇才队战绩反而更好。尽管威少已经在奇才的前23场比赛里取得了多次三双。同样地，比尔的几次单场高分也没帮助奇才队取下几场胜利。球队在开季6胜17负后迎来了一波8胜3负的反弹。我的拉脱维亚同胞、神射手贝尔坦斯赛季初在三分线外表现很挣扎，托马斯－布莱恩特则遭遇了导致他赛季报销的膝伤。幸运的是奇才队目前仅与排名第四的波士顿差5个胜场，他们还有机会去挽救他们的赛季。球队在进攻端最大的问题就是三分命中率太低（34.4％，联盟倒三），而且场均快攻得分仅有9分。好一点的是，布鲁克斯教练的球队侵略性确实很强，能经常得到站上罚球线的机会（罚球数联盟第二），也是内线得分效率最高的球队之一。和勇士、森林狼一样，奇才也是联盟最不爱打持球挡拆的球队之一。

洛杉矶湖人：低于预测排名3.5位

LA Lakers was highest ranked team by most of NBA experts before the season. And they still are main title contenders. Lakers started season with 14 wins in 18 games. There are 2 different Lakers teams – Lakers with AD and Lakers without AD. Since Davis is out with injury Los Angeles team has W/L record 3-6. Coach Vogel’s team is the best defensive team in NBA but they are average team offensively. One of the oldest teams with 36 years old James as one the main MVP candidates. Vogel’s are one of the NBA leaders in post-ups and isolations but they don’t attempt too many 3-pointers (55.7% of points are 2-pointers; 3rd of 30). They don’t drive to the basket a lot but still ranks Top5 by % of points scrored from paint. Lakers does excellent job by guarding corner 3-poiners and not letting opponents get to the charity line. Very good rebounding team. It’s very important for Davis to stay healthy. Last season’s LA Lakers were only NBA Champions in last decade who ranked at the bottom 10 in 3-point attempts both in regular season and play-offs. It’s not only about making threes..

赛季前大多数的NBA专家都预测湖人今年将会排名榜首，并且仍是总冠军的最有力争夺者，湖人在开局的18场比赛中也确实赢了14场。可有浓眉和没有浓眉的球队是截然不同的两支球队，自从浓眉伤停后，湖人队的战绩为3胜6败。沃格尔执教的球队有联盟中最好的防守，但其进攻端的表现非常平庸。湖人是联盟平均年龄最大的球队之一，他们拥有36岁的詹姆斯，后者仍是MVP的候选人之一。沃格尔执教的球队是联盟最爱使用低位和面筐单打的队伍，但他们的三分出手次数很少（两分球出手比例占55.7％，联盟第三）。他们冲击篮筐的次数不多，但仍然还有联盟前五的内线得分排名。湖人队在防守底角三分和控制犯规方面做的很好。篮板球的保护也很棒。浓眉哥保持健康的状态对于湖人队来说十分关键。上个赛季的湖人是NBA近十年来第一支三分出手数在常规赛和季后赛都排名倒数前十，却最终取得总冠军的球队。他们证明了篮球并不仅仅是关于三分球的游戏。

印第安纳步行者：低于预测排名4位

In first season as head coach for Nate Bjorkgren after replacing other Nate (Nate McMillan) his duty is to change of Indiana Pacers playing style. From defensive minded and mid-range shooting to faster-paced and more 3-point shooting team. Indiana plays team oriented basketball. Pacers started very well – 8 wins in 12 game but right before All-Star break they lost 5 of 6 games. Indiana is both medium good offensive and defensive team. They struggle with rebounding but is one of the best team in NBA by blocked shots per game. Big portion of their points comes from paint but they also struggling defensively by allowing to opponents to score near basket. Indiana together with Orlando and San Antonio ranks at the bottom per dunks per game (similar to last season). They should make a play-offs but teams like Charlotte, Atlanta, Washington and Chicago won’t let it happen easily. After sending Oladipo to Houston they acquired LeVert from Brooklyn. LeVert would be great for Pacers system but health is number one priority for every person. Overall their season are not as good as expected despite impressive 20 points + 11 rebounds + 6 assists average per game by Sabonis.

今年是内特-约克伦作为主教练的第一个赛季。在替掉内特-麦克米兰后，他的职责就是去改变球队的打法。以往注重防守和中距离投篮的步行者开始加快比赛节奏和增加三分的出手数。步行者也是一支主打团队篮球的队伍，他们在开局阶段打得很好——前12场比赛中赢了8场——但在全明星赛之前的6场比赛中他们仅取一胜。印第安纳是一支进攻和防守都很均衡的球队。他们的篮板球很差，但是封盖数却排名联盟前列；他们的得分大多来自内线，但也让对手在内线得了不少分。他们和魔术，马刺一样，都是场均扣篮数最少的球队（上赛季的他们也差不多）。球队应该能打入季后赛，但黄蜂、老鹰、奇才和公牛不会让他们很容易地完成这个目标。在将奥拉迪波送到火箭后，他们换来了篮网的勒韦尔，后者应该会很好地适应球队的打法，但保持健康仍是每一个步行者球员最需要做的事。尽管他们的表现不如预期的好，但小萨博尼斯目前场均20分11篮板6次助攻的表现让人印象深刻。

密尔沃基雄鹿：低于预测排名5位

One of the main NBA Title contenders and excellent regular season team in recent years. Addition of Jrue Holiday hasn’t helped that much as expected so far but I believe that Bucks will only play better and better. After promising 16-8 start they lost 5 games in a row. Impressive that 16 of their 22 wins were by 10 points or more. Probably coach Budenholzer had a time to overlook importance of winning regular seasons and this season Milwaukee don’t force things early in a season but that’s just my guess. Bucks plays fast-paced basketball and have very good offense (5th of 30). Their defense also not bad (12th of 30) but it’s far from having the best defense in 2 consecutive regular seasons like Milwaukee did. With 118.8 points scored per game team is 3rd highest scoring in NBA but this year they don’t focus on shooting that 3-pointers that much as previous two seasons instead improving quality of 3-pointers (38.8% from 3-point line; 4th of 30). Excellent rebounding team. Bucks still score a lot of points in transition but they have a lowest percentage of points from free-throw line (13.4%) among all NBA teams. Defensively they avoid fouling, guard the paint well but allows opponents to take many three-pointers. Even opponents have lot of 2-point and 3-point attempts against Bucks team their accuracy is low. Bucks are ranked 2nd by effiency of their starters. Milwaukee are very effective in paint as well as their transition offense. Pick-and-roll doesn’t play huge roll in their offense. Is Giannis ready to take it to next level also in Play-Offs?

作为近几年NBA常规赛最优秀的球队和总冠军的有力争夺者之一，虽然补充了霍勒迪的雄鹿给人的感觉并不像预期那样好，但是我相信这支球队会越打越好。在打出16胜8败的开局战绩后，他们一度遭遇5连败。值得一提的是，他们22场胜利中的16场分差都在10分以上。我猜想布登霍尔哲教练不会让球队过去急于去追求成绩，而是会好好审视常规赛的意义。雄鹿善于打快节奏的比赛，进攻很好（进攻效率联盟第五）而且防守也不算差（联盟第十二）。但对于雄鹿来说，他们现在离自己之前连续两个常规赛季的水平还是有距离的。虽然场均118.8的得分是联盟的第三高，但是今年他们不像前两个赛季那样专注于大量的三分出手，而是努力提高三分投篮的质量（三分命中率38.8％，联盟第四）。雄鹿的篮板球很出色，而且仍然有很多得分来自转换进攻，但他们罚球得分占比却是联盟最低的（13.4％）。在防守端，他们能避免不必要的犯规，对禁区的保护很好，但会让对手在三分线外出手更多。即便如此，在雄鹿队面前的队伍命中率也都会变得比较低。雄鹿的先发五虎攻防效率排名联盟第二，他们在内线得分的效率和他们的转换进攻一样高效。挡拆不是他们主要的战术。字母哥是否准备好在季后赛走得更远了呢？

波士顿凯尔特人：低于预测排名6位

„I made mistakes” & „Obviously not too good for Championship” Danny Ainge. Yes, so far Boston Celtics season hasn’t be as good as many NBA fans expected. Ok, Tatum and Brown both are All-Stars but Celtics aren’t happy with their 19-17 W/L record. Kemba Walker returned from injury when season already has started and Boston already won 8 of 11 games. After return of Kemba Celtics have W/L record is 11-14. Maybe it’s temporary problem but probably too many players who need ball together on court is not good idea (with all respect but Celtics trio ain’t Harden/KD/Kyrie). Better ball-movement might be neccessary since they are only 28th of 30 teams by percentage of all field goals made was assisted. Defensively they allows only 85.4 field goal attempts per game but overall Boston is below average defensive team in NBA. They definitely need a trade. Maybe addition of another big man would help but something is not working fine. Anyway Brad Stevens team has 4th place in Eastern Conference and they still have enough time to prove they can compete with the best teams in this league.

丹尼-安吉之前曾对外界说：“我错了，很明显我们没有达到可以拿冠军的水平。”没错，凯尔特人这个赛季到目前为止做的并没有像球迷期待的那样好。虽然塔特姆和布朗都进入了全明星，但是他们是不会满意19胜17败的球队战绩的。肯巴-沃克伤愈归来前，凯尔特人已经赢得了前11场比赛中的8场，但他们在随后的比赛中只有11胜14负。也许这个问题只是暂时的，但是多个需要球权的人同时在场显然不是个好主意（没有不尊重他们，只是他们不是哈登，杜兰特和欧文）。增加转移球应该是必要的，他们所有进球的受助攻率目前只排名联盟倒数第二。在进攻端，他们将对手的出手数限制在场均85.4次左右 ，这样的表现处于联盟平均水平之下。很明显，他们需要进行一些交易了。而除了大个内线外，大概其他类型的球员都不会起太大的作用。不管怎么说，史蒂文斯教练还是将球队带到了东部第四的位置，而且他们还有充足的时间去证明他们可以和联盟中最好的球队竞争。

明尼苏达森林狼：低于预测排名7位

Worst team in NBA with only 7 wins in 36 games. Not too many NBA fans predicted that Minnesota will make play-offs in Western Conference anyway but probably firing of youngest head coach in NBA was right decision – T-Wolves need changes. Experiment with youngest head coach and youngest team didn’t work out. Team from Minnesota currently has 9 games losing streak and only 3 wins in last 18 games. One of the main reasons is their star player Karl-Anthony Towns has only played in 16 of 36 games due to personal reasons (he lost multiple family members because of Covid-19) and it’s very hard emotionally for KAT to play his best basketball... Minnesota struggling offensively. With offensive rating 105.3 they ranks 29th of 30 of NBA teams. One of the lowest true shooting percentages and rebounding percentages in whole league. Lack of aggressiveness and lack of free-throw attempts (29th of 30). Timberwolves is one of the fastest teams in NBA. If you ask me about team’s highlight of the season then first thing that comes in my mind is Anthony Edwards dunk over Watanabe.

森林狼是全联盟目前的“副班长”，在前36场比赛中仅取得了7场胜利。虽然大部分球迷本来就不看好森林狼会进入西部的季后赛，但不管怎样说，炒掉联盟最年轻的主教练也许是个正确的决定——森林狼真的需要改变了。实践证明，最年轻的球队和最年轻的教练是不会产生好的化学反应的。球队在近期已经遭遇9连败，近18场比赛中仅赢了三场。球队颓势的重要原因之一是明星球员卡尔-安东尼-唐斯的缺阵，他今年已经因伤病和个人原因（他已经因为新冠肺炎而失去了数名亲人）缺席了上半程36场比赛中的18场。在这种情况下，唐斯即使出赛也很难打出高质量的表现。明尼苏达在进攻端很挣扎。他们105.3的进攻效率排在联盟的倒数第二位，还是联盟中真实命中率最低和篮板率最低的球队之一。狼队的进攻缺乏侵略性，罚球数明显不足（联盟倒二）。不过森林狼是联盟中节奏最快的球队之一，而且如果你问我本赛季的哪一个瞬间最让我难忘，我绝对会说是安东尼-爱德华兹在渡边雄太头上完成的那次隔扣。

多伦多猛龙：低于预测排名7位

Only NBA team from Canada has been one of the biggest disappointments in this season but since they are only 2 wins away from 4th place in Eastern Conference they still can prove that they belong to best from the East. Because of specific situation Toronto Raptors play home games in Tampa, Florida. Canadian team started slow with 2-8 W/L record but continued with 15 wins and 11 losses afterwards. Raptors shoots a lot 3-pointers and compared to start of the season their accuracy has improved. 41.1 % (3rd of 30) of Raptors points comes from 3-point line but at the same time they have one of the NBA lowest rates in points from paint and mid-range. Defensively coach Nurse team allows the lowest of amount of field goal attempts in NBA, they also guard paint very well but they struggle with foul problems – worst team in NBA per opponent’s free-throw attempts per game. Overall Toronto is mediocre defensive team. Interesting that with 7 coaches out (Covid-19) Sergio Scariolo had to slide into the head coach’s chair for few games. Toronto might make play-offs but I don’t see them going too far this year.

联盟中唯一的加拿大球队已经成为了本赛季最让人失望的球队之一。但考虑到他们与东区排名第四的球队仅差两个胜场，他们甚至仍有机会证明自己是东部最好的球队之一。由于疫情的缘故，今年猛龙队的主场比赛被迫移师佛罗里达州的坦帕市。猛龙队开局只取得2胜8负，之后则是15胜11败略有回升。猛龙队投出了大量的三分球，且命中率较赛季初也有所提升。猛龙队的三分球得分占比达到41.1%（联盟第三），但同时也有着最低的内线得分占比和中距离得分占比。在防守端，尼斯教练能将对手的命中率限制到联盟最低的一档，对内线的防守也很好，但对于犯规数的控制不佳（对手场均罚球数联盟第一）。总体上看，猛龙还是一支防守一般的球队。值得一提的是，主教练纳斯因新冠肺炎安全协议的原因而缺席了7场比赛，因此助教塞尔吉奥-斯卡里奥罗洛曾代理指挥过几场比赛。本赛季猛龙队仍有很大概率会打进季后赛，但不会走太远。

奥兰多魔术：低于预测排名8位

Orlando Magic made play-offs last 2 seasons and they also started this season with very promising 6 wins in 8 games but after losing #1 2017 NBA draft pick Fultz with knee injury situation changed. Only 7 wins in next 28 games... All-Star Vučevič’s 24.6 points, 11.6 rebounds and his 41.2% 3-point shooting is not enough. Injuries are big problem for Magic this season. If their struggles offensively (26th of 30) don’t surprise then their 21st best defense in NBA is bad surprise. Magic is bad shooting team with lowest 2-point field goal percentage and true shooting percentage in NBA. Good rebounding team and plays discpilined basketball with low rate of turnovers and fouls per 100 possessions also very good defensive rebounding team. Offensively one of the least effective teams outside the paint. Coach Clifford’s team plays team basketball almost without isolations (30th of 30) but with lot off-ball screens incorporated in their offense. Together with San Antonio and Indiana they have lowest dunk percentage of all field goal attempts. They lack of points scored in transition. Anyway, their situation is far from hopeless and they are only 3 wins away from 10th place in Eastern Conference (play-in tournament).

魔术在过去的两个赛季都进入了季后赛，并且他们也不负众望地在赛季初的前8场比赛中赢得了6场。但当2017年的状元秀富尔茨膝盖受伤后，一切就变了。他们在接下来的28场比赛中仅仅赢了7场，全明星球员武切维奇场均24.6分11.6个篮板，三分命中率达到41.2％，但魔术只靠他是远远不够的，伤病是他们本赛季最大的问题。如果说进攻端的挣扎（联盟倒数第五）不算令人惊讶的话，那么他们跌至联盟第21的防守就是最大的意外了。魔术队并不擅长投射，有着联盟中最低的两分命中率和真实命中率。他们对篮板球的保护不错，纪律也还算严明，有着联盟最低的百回合失误率和犯规率，防守篮板球拿得非常好。可在进攻端，他们是联盟中最低效的球队之一。教练克里福德喜欢团队篮球，所以魔术基本没有发动面筐单打（频率联盟倒一）并且会使用很多无球掩护。他们与马刺和步行者队一样有着最低的扣篮得分占比，转换得分很少。但不管怎么说，他们的状况离“没希望”三个字也还差得远，至今他们离东部第十的附加赛位也仅差三个胜场。

新奥尔良鹈鹕：低于预测排名8.5位

Before 2020/21 NBA season ESPN ranked this promising team at 14th place from 30 teams. Their W/L record 15-21 in Western Conference also not hopeless but since their expectations where much higher it makes Pelicans as one of the biggest disappointments so far. All-Star level season for Zion with 61.4% (!) field goal attempts made percentage. New Orleans biggest struggle is their bad defense (28th of 30). Their offense is much better (6th of 30). They also very good rebounding team. Interesting that 4 seasons under coach Gentry Pelicans played very fast-paced basketball (last 3 seasons they ranked TOP 3 per pace) but this season they rank only 18th of 30 in pace. I don’t think that adition of Adams or Bledsoe slows them down that much. It must coach Van Gundy’s decision to play at slower pace. Coach Van Gundy has excellent record by improving every team’s W/L record in his first season as head coach (Miami, Orlando, Detroit). Right now New Orleans win % is same as last season. Mainly because Zion this team are on of the most effective teams in painted area in whole NBA. Pelicans must find ways how to guard 3-point line better – they let opponents to shoot a lot and make 3s with high accuracy. That isn’t winning basketball recipe. I expect them to make trade after All-Star break.

在2020-21赛季前，ESPN预测这支球队能排到联盟第十四位，而目前身处西部的他们战绩是15胜21败。虽不是全无希望，但由于之前人们的期待很高，因此鹈鹕队仍称得上目前最令人失望的球队之一。蔡恩-威廉森打出了全明星级别的表现，半程投篮命中率高达61.4％。鹈鹕队最大的问题是他们的防守（联盟倒三），而他们的进攻则要强得多（联盟第六），篮板球也非常好。有趣的是，鹈鹕队之前在金特里执教的四个赛季中打得很快（过去三个赛季的比赛节奏均位列联盟前三），但本赛季他们的节奏仅位列联盟十八位。我不认为是亚当斯和布莱索的到来拖慢了他们的节奏，这一定是大范甘迪的决定所致。大范甘迪有着非常优秀的执教经验，其执教球队的首个赛季（无论在迈阿密，奥兰多还是底特律）都能有不错的成绩提升。可现在，鹈鹕的胜率与上个赛季基本相同。蔡恩的存在使得其成为了内线得分效率最高的球队之一，但鹈鹕队必须找到防守对方三分的方法，他们让对手在三分线上得了太多的分。这可不是赢球的秘方。我预计他们在全明星后会做出一些交易。

休斯顿火箭：低于预测排名10位

I can describe Rockets season as a „mess”. Harden’s saga. Trades. Injuries. Covid-19. Right now Houston is experiencing 14 games losing streak... Actually we are talking about various different Rockets teams this season - post/after Harden, with Oladipo and Wood and without them. During the period of 6 games winning-streak they even had the best defense in NBA. Houston plays fast-paced basketball and still relies on 3-point shooting (46.1% of all field goals are 3-pointers; 3rd of 30) but huge problem is their NBA lowest accuracy from 3-point line (33.3%). Almost complete avoidance of mid-range shooting also doesn’t help to improve their offense (28th of 30). Bad reboudning team. Together with Utah and Brooklyn also Houston don’t incorporate post-ups in their offense. One the least effective team in painted area. Potentially good defensive team if all players are available. It’s time for Rockets to rebuild.

我认为，一个“乱”字足以概括火箭的这个赛季了。从哈登的一系列事件，到交易、伤病和新冠肺炎，都是如此。半程结束时的火箭已经14连败了。实际上，今年火箭的人员问题总是解决不了，有哈登和没哈登的火箭是两支球队，有没有奥拉迪波/伍德的火箭也是两支球队。在之前那段6连胜之际，他们一度打出了联盟最好的防守。火箭爱打快节奏，依赖三分球（46.1％的三分球出手数，联盟第三），但最大的问题是他们糟糕的三分命中率（33.3％），而几乎不投中距离的选择也没有提升他们的进攻。他们的篮板球保护很差（联盟倒三），与爵士和篮网一样基本不打低位，却仍然是内线得分效率最低的球队之一。如果火箭的每个球员都能健康和稳定，他们的防守应该还是不错的。不过，火箭是该进入重建期了。

迈阿密热火：低于预测排名10.5位

From biggest surprise last season to biggest disappointment this season so far. Heat started slow (7-14) but played very well since then (11-4). Expectations were very high before the season but by having one of the shortest off-seasons ever (only 2.5 months because Miami played in NBA Finals) we could explain why Miami wasn’t play their best basketball in the beginning of the 2020/21 season. Also injuries and Covid-19 situation wasn’t helping team (Butler, Adebayo, Dragič, Bradley...) Their 18-18 W/L record in Eastern Conference is not impressive but at the same time coach Spoelstra team is only 4 wins behind 3rd place in East. Miami play slow-paced basketball and they struggle offensively (25th of 30) but as usual they are solid defensive team who quite often used to play zone-defense in last year’s play-offs. Also team from Florida is one of teams who rely more on shooting from outside (3rd furthest average shot distance in NBA) than going to the basket. Significant part of their points also comes from charity line. Overall bad rebounding team. Not only Miami themselves mostly shoots 3-pointers but they allows their opponents NBA high 40.9 3-point field goal attempts per 100 possessions. At the same time they have the best paint defense in NBA – only 39.9 points alowed from painted-area. One of the oldest teams in NBA. Despite disappointing start of the season Miami have plenty of time to prove that this was coincidence.

上个赛季的热火是最让人惊喜的球队，可目前的他们却成了本赛季前半程最让人失望的球队。热火的开局打得确实不好（7胜14败），但之后打的还不错（11胜4败）。外界赛季前对热火队的期望非常之高，但考虑到他们经历了史上最短的休赛期（由于热火打了总决赛，他们只休了2个半月），我们大概就能明白他们为什么在开局打得那么差了。伤病和新冠肺炎防控机制同样也是影响他们状态的因素（巴特勒，阿德巴约，德拉季奇和布拉德利等人都曾长期缺阵）。斯波尔斯特拉的球队目前战绩是18胜18败，虽然在东区不是那么亮眼，但距离东部第三不过4个胜场。热火的比赛节奏很慢，在进攻端很挣扎（联盟倒六），但他们的防守很坚固。在上个赛季的季后赛中，他们就经常使用区域联防。这支来自佛罗里达的球队相对于冲击篮筐更依仗外线投射，是联盟中平均出手距离第三远的球队，另有大量来自罚球线的得分。热火整体上的篮板球保护很差，在多投三分的同时也会让对手每百回合出手三分的次数出现提升，但同时他们也有者联盟最好的内线防守－让对手在油漆区场均仅得39.9分。作为联盟中最老的几支球队之一，尽管开季表现不好，但热火还完全有时间去提高他们的成绩。 

Thanks for reading and patience! CoachKris@HUPU.