TA2021模拟选秀榜单5.0:巴恩斯荣归故乡,Cooper再遇CP3,谁可撼动凯德-坎宁安
So here is the thing about the 2021 NBA Draft. Yes, there are four elite prospects, and that’s worth getting excited about. I even think it’s worth getting pumped about the next two guys on the board. But after that? There is a whole lot of uncertainty, as has been reported in these parts all year.
There are about 14 guys in the next tier for teams who could hear their name called on July 29, and there are about five wild card players that I’ll call out here as being extremely polarizing for NBA teams. Those players legitimately could go anywhere from around 10th to 25th, which makes this about as interesting a draft to project as I can remember.
But whereas the uncertainty that I’ve previously written about had to do with the prospects themselves, we’ve now hit the point where the uncertainty also includes trades. A number of picks are available for the right price in the middle of the lottery right now. Many of those teams are looking to make the leap into contention, and could be willing to move down or out of the draft in order to pick up help. There are also a number of teams that feel some confidence that there are picks to be had moving up in the order on draft night. It’s going to be extremely difficult to gauge where exactly things are heading on draft night.
So here it is — a post-Finals NBA mock draft as we roll into the final stretch of the 2021 NBA Draft cycle. As always, remember: I’ve talked to quite literally dozens of sources around the NBA to compile this thing (from scouts and executives to the agency side to coaches on both NBA and college staffs), and over the course of the last four years, I have a fairly good track record of success, comparatively. But we’re still at the point where teams are putting final draft boards together. So any intel is worth taking with something of a grain of salt, not necessarily due to smokescreens or tomfoolery, but simply due to the process being incomplete.
1. Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham | 6-foot-8, lead ballhandler | 19 years old, freshman | Oklahoma State
The player: Cunningham is the clear No. 1 player in this draft, a 6-foot-8 primary playmaker who profiles as a dynamic All-NBA mismatch nightmare. If you need him to play the point, he can do that. His time at Montverde Academy showed he is a smart, unselfish passer who can make all of the necessary reads. If you need him to play as a scoring threat, though, he can do that too. Cunningham was the primary scoring option this past season for Oklahoma State, carrying a substandard roster to an extremely impressive season while averaging 20 points per game and shooting over 40 percent from 3. On top of it, he’s a good, multi-positional defender who always knows where he needs to be in help and in switches. Cunningham is the total package, one of the safest players to enter the draft in a while.
The fit: Cunningham remains the overwhelming favorite to be the first overall pick to the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons have done a great job of building out young role players throughout the last year, particularly Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart and Killian Hayes. Cunningham is perfectly positioned to be the straw that stirs the drink as the elite player who pushes everyone down one slot in the pecking order. He fits with Hayes well as the primary ballhandler next to Hayes in the secondary role, although I think the team will need to go out and get an explosive, creative athlete to pair with those two in the backcourt as a trio just to consistently pressure the defense. But with Cunningham, the Pistons have absolutely fast-tracked their rebuild. I don’t know that they’ll push for the playoffs in 2022, but I would anticipate they do in 2023.
2. Houston Rockets
Jalen Green | 6-6 guard | 19 years old | G League Ignite
The player: One of the better scoring prospects of the last decade. Green isn’t quite as powerful as Anthony Edwards but has a similar level of quick-twitch and converts that twitch into powerful leaping and finishing off both one foot and two around the basket. I also like Green’s pull-up game and shooting and think it’s a bit ahead of where Edwards was last season. Green has a bit better touch entering the NBA and a bit more of a polished in-between game. He still has a ways to go in terms of making decisions and providing real defensive value on a consistent basis, but he’s one of the surest bets to average at least 20 points per game at some point in his career.
The fit: To this point, I do not believe any decision has been made with Houston. The sense I get is that the Rockets will call the Pistons about the No. 1 overall pick, but they’re unlikely to gain much traction. At No. 2, I believe Green, Evan Mobley and Jalen Suggs are all still being discussed. Remember: It would be unlikely the Rockets have made a final decision at this point if only because they just brought in a new director of scouting in Chris Wallace about 10 days ago. Green’s name is the one I’ve heard most with the Rockets at this point, so he’s slotted here. The Rockets desperately need explosive talent, regardless of how it “fits.” There is no discussion of “fit” when you don’t have the guy already on the roster. Green is about as good of a scoring prospect as I’ve scouted in the last eight years. He’ll be a 20-plus-point-per-game scorer in his career.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
Evan Mobley | 7-0 center | 20 years old, freshman | USC
The player: Mobley is a very well-rounded center prospect, a much stronger fit for the modern NBA than last year’s top-two pick James Wiseman. Mobley is a tremendous defender with incredible instincts, both as a rim protector and away from the basket. He’s good in pick-and-coverages due to how fluid and mobile his hips and feet are. Offensively, he is really comfortable handling the ball and making plays as a passer. He has some upside as a shot creator out of dribble handoffs and short rolls. USC even used him as a pick-and-roll ballhandler at times. He has the potential to step away and shoot too, as he made 12 3s this past season. He carried USC to the Elite Eight, one of the best seasons in school history. He is another potential All-Star-level talent.
The fit: Mobley is, by far, the name I’ve heard most for the Cavaliers. You may be asking, “Why would the Cavaliers take a center after they just traded for Jarrett Allen and already have a terrific option in Larry Nance?” Honestly, that’s a real perspective that I think is valid. I would probably take Suggs. But you know what? They really need defensive ability, and Mobley has a higher defensive upside than anybody in this class. Even if he wouldn’t be my pick, I still like the pick for Cleveland. His upside is real. If they’re going to take Mobley, I would strongly urge that the Cavs do not re-sign Allen and instead look to sign-and-trade him with his restricted free agency rights. That would just be using far too much money for the frontcourt in a perimeter-oriented NBA. But a Darius Garland-Evan Mobley pick-and-roll has to be exciting to Cavaliers fans.
4. Toronto RaptorsJalen Suggs | 6-5 guard | 20 years old, freshman | Gonzaga
The player: A powerful guard with a well-rounded game, Suggs profiles nicely as a lead initiator in the NBA. He has terrific athleticism and quick-twitch, mixed with power and explosion as a dunker. He pairs that with a real skill level and feel for the game. He plays an attack-oriented but patient brand of basketball while maintaining control. When engaged, he’s a tremendous on-ball defender. There just aren’t a ton of holes with Suggs, and he has the look of a future All-Star if the jumper improves by a small margin. He just needs to iron out some of the wild tendencies in his game as well as tighten up his jumper a bit.
The fit: I don’t think this pick is a done deal yet. Sources certainly believe the Raptors are indeed considering Scottie Barnes in addition to the consensus top-four names. Additionally, this pick is thought to be available for the right price in a trade-down scenario. But Suggs at No. 4 would be a home run for the Raptors. His mixture in between Fred VanVleet in the backcourt and OG Anunoby on the wing would be tremendous due to his athleticism and creativity. He can put legitimate pressure on the rim in a way few others in this class can, which is something the Raptors could use. He also has the high-energy defensive mindset that Nick Nurse loves when he’s locked in. And while he keeps working out his jumper — which isn’t bad; it just needs some time to work its way into consistency — the Raptors would really be able to space the floor around him. I’d simply just sit here if I were them and take the player in the top-four who falls.
5. Orlando MagicScottie Barnes | 6-9 forward | 19 years old, freshman | Florida State
The player: At 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan and a strong, powerful frame, Barnes has prototypical size and length for the wing and switchable big position. His lateral agility also is strong, allowing him to be the one prospect in this class who can genuinely switch one through five right now. So few players in the NBA are this big, this long and this fluid and also consistently play as hard as Barnes does with such infectious energy. Offensively, there is some work to do, but he’s a tremendous passer with a high feel for the game, having averaged over four assists per game for Florida State while playing some point guard. The swing skill will be the jump shot. If Barnes makes shots, he’ll be a terrific starter with some All-Star upside if things break right.
The fit: Barnes fits everything this front office has looked for in the past to a T. He has great positional size, he’s strong, he’s a great teammate, he plays with infectious energy, he’s an awesome defender and he has real ball skills for his position. But the Magic wouldn’t be alone in liking Barnes. Multiple teams I’ve spoken with actually have Barnes as a top-four prospect in this class, ahead of Suggs, Green or Mobley. I don’t necessarily love the roster fit here, but the player simply ticks all the boxes Orlando looks for. I believe the Magic are much more likely, at this point, to select Barnes than Jonathan Kuminga, the other player typically associated with this pick. One other note: don’t be surprised if Orlando tries to move up on draft night, as the team is thought to like Jalen Suggs.
6. Oklahoma City ThunderJonathan Kuminga | 6-7 wing/forward | 18 years old | G League Ignite
The player: Kuminga had an up-and-down experience with the G League Ignite this year. He’s an athletic wing with real shot-creation potential due to his body control and power. He’s a terrific driver who gets into the paint, and he plays really hard. He cuts well, and while he didn’t shoot it well this past season, I don’t think his shot off the catch is broken by any stretch. Still, he shot 25 percent from 3. He also struggled a bit on defense within the construct of what the Ignite wanted to do as a team, but he has all of the tools you look for with a 7-foot-plus wingspan and real athleticism and strength. He averaged 16 points and seven rebounds in his first professional experience and profiles well as a starting wing with real All-Star upside if the shot comes around.
The fit: Kuminga has turned into one of the true wild cards of draft night. I think his range starts here and lasts down even until the 11 or 12 range. Things with his situation are that uncertain right now. However, where he lands will have a significant cascading effect on the rest of the proceedings. The Thunder are notoriously secretive, but the name that has come up most as a potential party-crasher in the top-six is James Bouknight. A Bouknight choice would particularly create some confusion down the order, as there is some uncertainty regarding how teams below this level feel about Kuminga. Also, don’t forget Sam Presti is one of the most active general managers on the trade market. Teams are trying to navigate his season with the Ignite and are struggling to come up with where they fall on him. Is he more Jeff Green or Jaylen Brown? Or somewhere in the middle like Harrison Barnes? Each individual team feels differently, and he’s something of a polarizing player. The Thunder can afford to take a flier, given that they have one of the best developmental programs in the NBA. I’m going for Kuminga for now, but there is a real chance this adjusts with more information.
7. Golden State Warriors (via MIN)
James Bouknight | 6-5 wing | 20 years old, sophomore | Connecticut
The player: Bouknight is a terrific athlete with great scoring acumen. At 6-foot-5 with long arms, he has good size for the off-guard position. His game is built off the playground. He has tremendous shake and potential to be a genuine three-level scorer in the NBA. He’s a tremendous finisher for a guard who absorbs contact and finishes through it. Anything you’re looking for in a guy’s bag from a craft perspective, Bouknight has it, and it’s a fun game to watch. Ultimately, he needs to prove he can knock down shots at a bit of a better clip, given that it needs to be a genuine plus skill with what his game will be.
The fit: The Warriors are in a really interesting place. As always, a lot of information seems to emanate from their front office. Bouknight, Moses Moody, and Josh Giddey are the three names I’ve gotten most consistently for them. They fit a combination of what the front office wants to do (maximize the asset value) and what the coaching staff/players want (compete now and get players who can help them do that sooner rather than later). Additionally, the Warriors are strongly considering the possibility that Kuminga could fall into their range, heading down to Miami to see a workout with him later this week in Miami. Golden State is constantly in the trade rumor mill with this and the 14th pick, so don’t be stunned to see that continue. As much as the players may want to draft a player who could help them sooner rather than later, it’s much more likely that a trade for a veteran would accomplish that task even better. It’s worth noting, again, that Bouknight could be off the board here.
8. Orlando Magic (via CHI)
Alperen Sengun | 6-10 big | 19 years old, international | Besiktas
The player: Sengun won the Turkish League MVP after putting up one of the most productive teenage seasons in recent European basketball history. From a scouting perspective, he can finish inside, has a great nose for the basket and a great feel for getting separation. His hands are elite. Plus, he’s started showing the kind of dexterity and ability that will allow him to take guys off the bounce and score. The only problem comes on defense, where I’m a bit skeptical until he proves he can man up in space. But the offensive upside is legitimately good enough to be worthy of a top-10 pick.
The fit: The Magic are one of the few teams that will have Sengun in for a workout and are thought to be interested in the high-scoring Turkish star as a potential replacement for Nikola Vucevic, whom the team traded away at the deadline to acquire this selection among other assets. Plenty of other names have come up here as well, including Bouknight, Moody and Franz Wagner. Kuminga falling here would also create an interesting choice if they take Barnes. Given the presence of two picks, the Magic are also thought to be a potential trade partner for teams.
9. Sacramento Kings
Franz Wagner | 6-9 forward | 19 years old, sophomore | Michigan
The player: Wagner is an interesting 3-and-D prospect at 6-foot-9. His movement is terrific, with great lateral quickness. He can guard a variety of perimeter players on the ball, but his off-ball instincts are absolutely spectacular. He knows exactly where to be positionally, and his reactivity to get deflections is outstanding. The big question revolves around his shot, which comes and goes far too often. Sometimes, he looks like a legit 40 percent 3-point shooter in the future. Other times, he looks like a 30 percent guy and totally non-confident in the jumper mechanics. Whichever one he is will determine his career. If he becomes that high-level shooter, he’ll be a very high-level role player who starts. If he doesn’t, he’s more in the vein of his brother, Moritz, as an end-of-the-rotation guy.
The fit: Three things have consistently come up when discussing what the Kings are thinking with sources around the league. First, that they would love to take a bigger wing/forward. Second, that defense is important to them in this pick. And third, that analytics will play a bigger role here than in other situations league-wide, given Monte McNair’s background and ownership’s emphasis on being data-driven. Wagner is the guy that ticks all the boxes there as a 6-foot-9 player with real defensive acumen who is actually younger than quite a few of the one-and-dones in this class. This pick is also thought to have come up in trade discussions as the Kings look to compete for a playoff spot next year.
10. New Orleans Pelicans
Josh Giddey | 6-8 wing | 18 years old | Adelaide
The player: Giddey had a terrific season in Australia, averaging 11 points, seven rebounds and seven assists, leading the league in helpers and finishing sixth in rebounding as an 18-year-old. He needs to tighten up his handle a bit and keep improving as a shooter, but the skill set here is perfect for that of a secondary playmaker at the next level due to how quickly he processes the game. Giddey should be a very high-level role player who starts, with some upside for more if the jumper gets figured out.
The fit: I have less of a feel for the Pelicans than any other team in the top 10. They have a tendency to draft younger (Kira Lewis, Zion Williamson and Jaxson Hayes were all teenagers when they were picked, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker was 20 years old) under this regime. Plus, their backcourt of the future could use a bit more size. I’ve gone Giddey here, who would be a pretty great replacement for Lonzo Ball, given that Ball is a free agent and no guarantee to re-sign in New Orleans. One other note on Giddey: he has a lot of fans in ranges of the draft that aren’t his projected range, including Toronto — one of the few teams to send personnel to see him live this year in Australia. Don’t be surprised to see a team target him in a trade situation.
11. Charlotte Hornets
Moses Moody | 6-6 wing | 19 years old, freshman | Arkansas
The player: Moody is a terrific 3-and-D wing option at 6-foot-6 with a 7-foot wingspan. He is switchable on defense, with good feet and a tough mindset. Offensively, he hits shots with a smooth stroke off the catch. He took a ton of contested shots this past season as Arkansas’ go-to guy, which led to some of his inefficiencies. But he also showcased some difficult shot-making ability off the move. The big things to work on here are his passing ability and finishing — and he’s not a wild athlete by any stretch. But it’s tough to find teenagers who are this good at shooting and defending with a platform to improve his other aspects as well.
The fit: The Hornets desperately need a long-term answer at center with Cody Zeller entering free agency this offseason. Having said that, they have an awful lot of cap space they can use this summer to fill that need, and sources around the league believe they are likely to target a center when using that space to try to take another leap up the Eastern Conference hierarchy. So it wouldn’t stun me to see a guard go here. I’ve gone Moody, whom teams are excited about. Why? Because he was a productive college player that fills a genuine 3-and-D need next to LaMelo Ball long-term. I’m a big fan of Moody’s shot making and think this would be about as perfect a fit as you’ll find.
12. San Antonio Spurs
Jalen Johnson | 6-8 forward | 19 years old, freshman | Duke
The player: We’re in the part of the draft where there are some flawed but interesting prospects who have high upsides but low floors. Johnson is a tremendous ballhandler and transition player for his size at the four. His best skill, though, is his passing ability. He’s very creative in how he sees over the defense, and he makes a lot of tough reads. The problem is that he’s not a particularly adept half-court scoring threat. Teams will just play the pass against him because he doesn’t shoot it confidently yet and doesn’t have an in-between floater game yet. If he ever shoots it, though, he has a good shot to turn into a real starter.
Johnson left Duke early this year and departed IMG Academy midway through his senior season, and NBA teams are working through his intel report to make a determination on how much they believe he’d fit within their organizations.
The fit: Another extremely polarizing player on whom scouts are all over the map. This is wild card No. 2. I’ve spent more time digging into Johnson’s draft standing than any other player this year. I’ve talked to a couple of executives for teams in the teens that have told me their team will not be selecting him. I’ve also talked to four different sources that seem to think Johnson is a lock in the lottery. Honestly, I’m not sure what to think. What I do know is that teams have some real questions about Johnson’s intel report that they’re still working through. When that is the case with one-and-done guys, they have a tendency to fall on draft night. Johnson’s range starts around here and reaches into the 20s. It’s wider than you’d think if a decision or two falls against him. He fits really well with the Spurs as a point forward, though, as they need further playmaking in the frontcourt.
13. Indiana Pacers
Davion Mitchell | 6-3 guard | 22 years old, junior | Baylor
The player: Mitchell was arguably the best two-way player in the country. He won the national Defensive Player of the Year award due to his toughness at the point of attack. He took on a variety of assignments too, from smaller guards all the way up to guys like Cade Cunningham. The key reason for his rise, though, came on offense, where Mitchell actualized the tools he has in terms of speed and quickness and became an extremely high-level table-setter as a passer. On top of that, he hit nearly 45 percent from 3. His game looks tailor-made and ready to play in the NBA. He’s one of the most competitive players in the draft, a tough dude who just keeps getting better every time we see him.
The fit: The Pacers are pretty set across the board positionally. The team did have a ball-movement-heavy offense last year, though, and Rick Carlisle likely wouldn’t mind a similar offensive system with versatile players. They also might need further defensive play at the point of attack, where Mitchell is absolutely superb. Really though, this is just kind of a value pick for me as the Pacers can just afford to take the guy that they think is best, given everything they already have. I’ll also just note, though, that Mitchell’s range is a bit wider than what people think. I don’t really see him as truly being in the mix for anyone at this point until No. 11, unless a team moves up.
14. Golden State Warriors
Chris Duarte | 6-6 guard | 24 years old, senior | Oregon
The player: Some evaluators have docked Duarte for his age, as he’d be the oldest prospect in the first round. But I think his game is so tailor-made for the NBA that he’s not going to have any problem making an immediate impact. He’s an All-Defense member in the Pac-12 and a genuine playmaker with how disruptive his hands are in the backcourt with length at 6-foot-6. And on offense, he’s a legit 40-plus percent 3-point shooter who also can handle the ball and make comfortable decisions. Duarte has high-level role player written all over him. He chose to sit out the 2021 NBA Draft Combine, leading some teams to speculate that he has a promise from someone.
The fit: This is on the higher end for Duarte, a name that has come up as someone the Warriors are particularly interested in because they believe he can be a part of the team’s rotation as soon as this season. His ability to shoot and defend would be different from anything else the team currently has in the backcourt. Again, I think they’d love for Moody to get here, something that isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Keon Johnson is another name that has come up. Also, don’t be stunned if this is looked at as a trade spot for opposing teams that want to try to get back in for a specific player.
15. Washington Wizards
Corey Kispert | 6-7 wing | 22 years old, senior | Gonzaga
The player: Arguably the best shooter in the class, Kispert shot 53 percent from the field and 44 percent from 3 this past season while averaging 19 points per game for the nearly undefeated Gonzaga Bulldogs. He’s going to shoot the hell out of the ball, and he’s going to make elite decisions. NBA sources have compared him very similarly to Joe Harris, who has led the league in 3-point percentage in two of the last three seasons. There are some questions on defense, as Kispert doesn’t have the quickest feet in the world. But he’s a confident player who was the leader of Gonzaga’s team this past season, an elite character guy who will keep working and should stick as a very high-level role player.
The fit: No team needs shooting more than the Wizards at this point. Really, the only two reliable guys they have on their roster heading into next season in that regard are Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans. Garrison Mathews is a free agent and will need to be signed. Kispert is about as reliable a shooter as you’ll find, the best in this draft class. The assumption on him right now is that he lands somewhere in the No. 10 to No. 20 range. Duarte and Trey Murphy are other names that have come up here as the Wizards look for potential role players this year.
16. Oklahoma City Thunder (via BOS)
Isaiah Jackson | 6-10 center | 19 years old, freshman | Kentucky
The player: Jackson decided to stay in the 2021 NBA Draft after some thought, and it makes sense. He’s a likely top-20 pick due to his tools. He’s 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan and all sorts of twitchy explosiveness. He is the prototypical run-and-jump, play-finishing, shot-swatting center prospect and has the athleticism to legitimately do it. He also had a monster close to the season, averaging 13 points, seven rebounds and two blocks over his final seven games. If things break right, he’ll be an effective defender who is low-usage as a gravity lob threat on offense.
The fit: The Thunder are seen as likely to come away from the 2021 NBA Draft with at least one big man, given that there aren’t any true bigs on the roster right now. Jackson is the name I’ve heard most associated with them in that regard, as he’s a high-character player who has high upside on defense. Kai Jones also has come up as a possibility. Obviously though, with picks No. 16 and 18, Presti will be active in the trade market and will scour to see what’s available.
17. Memphis Grizzlies
Trey Murphy | 6-9 wing | 21 years old, junior | Virginia
The player: A tailor-made 3-and-D fit for today’s NBA. Murphy hit 43.3 percent from 3 and 92.7 percent from the foul line this past season at 6-foot-9. He has extremely clean mechanics that project exceedingly well toward success at the next level. But more than that, he’s also a strong defender who moves his feet well and can slide to cut off penetration from opposing drivers. He’s switchable onto perimeter players right now, and as he keeps getting stronger — he’s a late bloomer physically who was 5-foot-8 as a freshman in high school — he has some potential to slide up the lineup defensively. He’s a name I’ve heard a lot of enthusiasm about from teams as we near the draft.
The fit: There has been arguably no more successful team in the draft in recent years than the Grizzlies. Murphy and Jaden Springer are the two names I’ve heard most for Memphis at No. 17, although they are thought to be one of the teams to have explored moving up. Murphy tick a lot of the boxes as a plus-character guy for an organization that genuinely cares about it, along with being a high-level floor spacer and defender to put next to Ja Morant, who we all know will be the creative driving force in Memphis for the foreseeable future.
18. Oklahoma City Thunder (via MIA)
Jared Butler | 6-3 guard | 20 years old, junior | Baylor
The player: Butler was as decorated a college player as you’ll find this past season, a first-team All-American who has worked his way into a genuine draft prospect over the last two years. He’s a 6-foot-3 scoring guard who can knock down shots from the outside both directly off the catch and off the pull-up. He averaged nearly 17 points per game while shooting almost 42 percent from 3 and taking tough shots too. Plus, he was All-Defense in the Big 12 and generally does a good job of playing within scheme and locking down opposing players.
The fit: Butler is a complicated evaluation for teams. He’s been cleared by the NBA after going before its fitness to play panel due to a personal health matter. However, all that means is the league won’t stop him from playing or a team from selecting him. Each team will have to make an individual determination regarding his situation and decide how comfortable it is. I’ve heard anything from the teens to the early second round for Butler. His situation will undeniably be one of the stories of draft night. For the Thunder, he’d be a perfect backcourt complement for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lu Dort.
19. New York Knicks
Usman Garuba | 6-8 big | 19 years old | Real Madrid
The player: Defense, defense, defense. Garuba is already one of the best defenders in Europe as a teenager and profiles as a potential All-Defense Team guy in the NBA by the time he’s 25. He can defend on the interior, with terrific fundamentals for verticality and weakside shot blocking. His ability to slide his feet and drop his hips laterally is ridiculous, and his instincts as a pick-and-roll defender are terrific. The problems come on offense. He’s still not a particularly effective player on that end, but there have been signs of progress. He has been making more 3s recently, but it’s going to take some time. He can also pass the ball out of short rolls a bit, and he’s not totally afraid to put the ball on the deck.
The fit: Tom Thibodeau’s favorite player is Taj Gibson. There are a lot of similarities between Garuba and Gibson, as both are absolutely elite defenders positionally. The difference is that Garuba has a bit more athleticism and pop than Gibson ever did, and thus has a real chance to be the kind of impact defender it’s worth consistently keeping on the court. Also, the Knicks will be very familiar with Garuba, as he’s repped by CAA. While I do think that connection to the current front office has been slightly overblown, I also believe it’ll help in regard to familiarity with a player they might not have gotten a chance to see overseas this year.
20. Atlanta Hawks
Keon Johnson | 6-5 wing | 19 years old, freshman | Tennessee
The player: An elite athlete, Johnson has the kind of twitch and explosion most players only dream of possessing. At 6-foot-5, he can jump out of the gym and has burst as a driver. He’s also an elite defender on the ball already, where he uses that length and quickness to cause issues for players at the one through three spots. He’s just very raw on offense. The jumper needs work, as he’s essentially a non-shooter right now — at least efficiently. He also needs to work on his handle and driving ability. But once Tennessee let him loose late in the season, Johnson was pretty good. He averaged 14.4 points, four rebounds and three assists over his final 12 games, including a bevy of impressive highlights that showcase what his upside is if he can keep rounding out his game.
The fit: Another wild card. Johnson is an extremely polarizing player for front offices. Some love his athletic upside and see him as a real potential offensive playmaker. Others just strongly believe that he’s not going to shoot it, and that he’s a bit too loose with the ball. I’ve heard anywhere from top 10 to mid-20s for Johnson from teams. But unfortunately, someone just kind of has to fall on draft night. In this iteration of the mock, Johnson is one of those fallers. It wouldn’t surprise me if I get intel later in the week that says to move him up. No one I’ve spoken with has a great feel for the Hawks right now after their deep run in the playoffs. They’re pretty set across the board positionally, with the only true need being a backup point guard for Trae Young if Lou Williams was to depart. Johnson isn’t really that, but he’s a great on-ball defender that would complement Young in the backcourt.
21. New York Knicks (via DAL)
Jaden Springer | 6-4 guard | 18 years old, freshman | Tennessee
The player: Springer had a strong freshman season for the Vols. His advanced numbers and analytics are quite strong for his age. And similarly to Johnson above, Springer was tremendous late in the season. He averaged 16 points, four rebounds and three assists in his final 11 games, finally getting a chance to show off why he was a five-star prospect. He’s also a terrific defender. Having said that, I’ve found that Springer’s game isn’t loved by many scouts. He plays almost solely off two feet and doesn’t seem to get the most out of his athleticism. There’s a degree of bully-ball here. He’s going to have to adjust his game to have success at the next level.
The fit: I’ve heard two consistent things with the Knicks over the last week. First, they see shot creation as a genuine need, and they’ll look to address it. Second, don’t be surprised if they end up not picking at 19 and 21. Springer would fill that shot-creation ability, and it’s easy to see how Thibodeau would be an enormous fan of the Tennessee product due to his defensive intensity.
22. Los Angeles Lakers
Cam Thomas | 6-3 guard | 19 years old, freshman | LSU
The player: Arguably the most natural scorer in this draft class. Few teenagers have the kind of scoring instincts that Thomas does. He has this innate sense for how to get defenders off balance and has a ridiculous pull-up game that allows him to be constantly on balance himself. He was the fourth-leading scorer in college basketball as a teenager. That seems good, right? So where is the issue? Well, scoring is all he does. He’s a bad defender and plays fairly selfishly on offense to the point that I can see some friction developing between him and some older teammates at the next level.
The fit: Duarte remains the name that comes up most for the Lakers. He is working out for teams above the Lakers in the draft order, so I’m a bit dubious that there is a “promise” here — or anywhere — for Duarte, something that teams around the league have speculated on throughout the pre-draft process. Having said that, he doesn’t get here. So the Lakers go Thomas instead, a player who is invited to the 2021 NBA Draft Green Room but on whom I can’t quite get a read on his actual landing spots. Again, some evaluators really buy Thomas’ ability to get a bucket from anywhere, and others actively dislike the fact that he doesn’t pass or defend. The Lakers might be the perfect landing spot for him because I would venture LeBron James would hold him accountable on those things early in his career. Another name I’ve heard here for the Lakers is Tre Mann.
23. Houston Rockets (via POR)
Kai Jones | 6-11 big | 20 years old, sophomore | Texas
The player: This is a home run swing. Jones is one of the more high-upside players you’ll find in the draft. Having just started playing competitive hoops in his mid-teens, Jones is still figuring things out in terms of defensive awareness and passing reads. But he’s a fascinating prospect because he has elite athleticism at 6-foot-11. He moves his feet as fluidly as a wing and has explosive leaping ability as a shot blocker and dunker. He also has the kind of body control you look for in a shooter, with him having already showcased shooting potential and shot-making upside. He can legitimately attack closeouts and pull up from the midrange to shoot. He’ll pull out Euro steps and maneuvers around defenders with legitimate skill. He’s a project, but with patience, a team could get a lot out of him.
The fit: A wild card, again. Jones is all over the map for teams. Some think he has more upside than any big in this draft outside of Evan Mobley due to his athletic tools. Others really worry about his feel for the game and whether he’ll ever make an impact on defense. I’ve heard anywhere from back half of the lottery to the mid-20s. This would be on the lower end, and there is a real chance he goes much higher on draft night. But the Rockets can afford to take on a project with this kind of upside as they try to rebuild following the James Harden deal. This is a guy who could end up 10 spots too low, but it’s just hard to find landing spots for bigs in the teens if the Thunder go a different direction.
24. Houston Rockets (via MIL)
Miles McBride | 6-2 guard | 20 years old, sophomore | West Virginia
The player: McBride is one of my favorites in this class. He’s lightning-quick laterally and is elite at the point of attack defensively. His game is all about pressure. He attacks the opposing ballhandler, then attacks when he has the ball on offense. When West Virginia switched to more of a four-out offense in the second half of the year, McBride thrived and looked like a potential high-level backup. He could become a starter if his jumper off the bounce continues to come along.
The fit: This would be a pretty big home run draft for the Rockets, to get all of McBride, Green and Jones. McBride would be a tremendous complement to Green in the backcourt because of his defensive intensity and his potential to shoot it both on- and off-ball. This would absolutely be a phenomenal backcourt of the future for the Rockets. McBride’s range starts in the mid-teens and extends into the 20s.
25. LA Clippers
Rokas Jokubaitis | 6-4 lead guard | 20 years old | Zalgiris
The player: Jokubaitis is a combo guard with exceptional feel for the game and the ability to play out of ball screens. He makes live-dribble passes and also has a nice little three-level scoring game off his pull-up repertoire that will translate to playing both on and off the ball. The key for him will be athletic translation and consistently gaining separation, but he plays such an unhurried style of basketball with poise that I think he’ll probably be good on that front to at least carve out a solid bench role in the NBA.
The fit: The Clippers love toughness and are competing for a title. They could use a young player who can step in and contribute sooner rather than later. But it’s hard to find that later in the draft, and one avenue open to them given their current contract situation could be to stash a player they like overseas for another year to try to re-shape their roster for this season. Another name I’ve gotten that the Clippers like is Jason Preston out of Ohio, although I’m unclear that they would like him enough to entertain him at No. 25.
26. Denver Nuggets
Joshua Primo | 6-6 guard | 18 years old, freshman | Alabama
The player: Primo, a 6-foot-6 guard who also is the youngest player in the 2021 draft class, has been one of the big winners of the pre-draft process. He had a solid year for Alabama as a freshman, largely playing as more of a spot-up shooter in their offense. But he has long had the reputation for the ability to do more and showcased that throughout his workouts, as he can handle the ball with tremendous body control and finish at the rim as a secondary ballhandler.
The fit: One thing the Nuggets are known for is pre-drafting players they think might be a year away from going much higher in the draft the next season. Primo is a prime pre-draft candidate, and there is even a thought that he could be off the board a bit earlier than this. Still, Denver would be a really strong fit for Primo given how great the organization is developmentally, and given that it has time to spend on him with how deep the Nuggets’ guard rotation is in front of him once his fellow Torontonian Jamal Murray gets healthy.
27. Brooklyn Nets
Ziaire Williams | 6-9 wing | 19 years old, freshman | Stanford
The player: A complicated evaluation. Williams had a tough year at Stanford, as the team lived out of hotels for the first six weeks of the season, then he left the team in the middle of the season due to a death in the family before returning for the final few games. On the court, he had some true highs, such as a triple-double against Washington. He also averaged 13 points, six rebounds and three assists prior to his month-long departure. Still, his inefficiency left a bad lasting impression in most evaluators’ eyes, and he struggled to deal with the physicality of the game at what looked to be about 175 pounds. Williams is a project, although one with major upside if the right team ends up with him.
The fit: The Nets are competing for a title and can afford to take a home run swing on a late first-round pick if only because it’s unlikely many of these guys would be able to hold down a rotation spot on a title contender right now. Williams has a long way to go, but it’s hard to imagine someone better for his game to be around every day than Kevin Durant. He’s definitely seen as a wild card who could go all over the board on draft day.
28. Philadelphia 76ers
Ayo Dosunmu | 6-5 guard | 21 years old, junior | Illinois
The player: Dosunmu was one of the best players in college basketball this past season, posting 20 points, six rebounds and five assists while leading Illinois to a terrific season. Simply put, he’s pro-ready and should be able to make an impact early due to his athleticism, vision, defensive ability, length and poise. Having said that, I can tell you there are scouts who are not enamored with him because of his jumper. He hit 39 percent this past season on under 100 attempts, and over the course of his career, he’s hit 34.5 percent of his 300-plus 3-point attempts. It’s a bit of a wonky shot mechanically that scouts worry about in terms of consistency. Teams also aren’t sure if he’s a lead guard or an off-guard from a vision and playmaking perspective. But he’s also considered a leader and a high-character guy, so there is some faith he’ll keep improving.
The fit: The 76ers seem likely to move Ben Simmons this summer given all of the reporting. That would totally reshape the roster and open up a few different avenues. Dosunmu isn’t a great shooter, but he’s a high-level defender on the perimeter who also has some real offensive game. As usual, though, sources have continued to note that Daryl Morey has a tendency not to use his draft picks, so don’t be surprised if this pick comes up as a potential trade option.
29. Phoenix Suns
Sharife Cooper | 6-1 guard | 20 years old, freshman | Auburn
The player: One look at Cooper’s numbers will tell you a lot. He averaged over 20 points and eight assists per game in an extremely high-usage role for Auburn after becoming eligible to play (the NCAA held him out for half the season while looking into amateurism concerns). Cooper’s ballhandling acumen is absurd, as he keeps the ball close to the ground and tight to his body while creatively contorting his body, changing paces and adjusting directions. His live-dribble passing also is an extremely high-level skill. The intersection of those two skills should allow him to at least be a backup in the NBA. Where the upside will come is with his shooting and defense. He’s terrible at both right now. And he’s extremely small, making it highly unlikely the defense is going to come along. For Cooper to reach his ceiling, it involves getting better as a shooter.
The fit: The good news for the Suns is that they have very few real needs. Backup center is definitely one, but that is easily filled in free agency by myriad options. Backup point guard (and a legitimate option as a long-term point guard of the future for after the Chris Paul era ends) also is a real need given that Cam Payne has made himself quite a bit of money this season with his standout performances. Cooper would be a killer fit here in that regard. He could end up going about 10 spots higher than this on draft night as well. He has a very wide range, and it’s a bit telling that he has not been invited to the NBA Draft Green Room yet.
30. Utah Jazz
Herbert Jones | 6-7 wing |22 years old, senior | Alabama
The player: Jones is one of the best defensive players in the draft, a 6-foot-7 wing with a 7-foot wingspan who can legitimately guard one through four. On top of that, he can really handle the ball and make passing reads, sometimes even running the point for Alabama on his way to SEC Player of the Year and SEC Defensive Player of the Year. The big question is with the jumper. Personally, I’m a bit skeptical of it and have real concerns about him ever shooting at the level expected of a low-usage NBA wing. But if he does, he’ll be an NBA role player for a decade.
The fit: The Jazz are certainly looking for athletic defensive players who can help them win a title next year. Jones fits that billing perfectly. The only issue is that he can’t shoot, something that is very coveted within their offense. They’d need to believe they can fix the jumper for this one to work.
Round 2
31. Milwaukee (via HOU): Quentin Grimes | 6-5 guard | 21 years old, junior | Houston
32. New York (via DET): Austin Reaves | 6-5 guard | 23 years old, senior | Oklahoma
33. Orlando: Bones Hyland | 6-3 guard | 20 years old | VCU
34. Oklahoma City: JT Thor | 6-10 forward | 19 years old | Auburn
35. New Orleans (via CLE): Joe Wieskamp | 6-7 wing | 21 years old, junior | Iowa
36. Oklahoma City (via MIN): Tre Mann | 6-4 guard | 20 years old, sophomore | Florida
37. Detroit (via TOR): Brandon Boston Jr. | 6-7 wing | 19 years old, freshman | Kentucky
38. Chicago (via NO): Day’Ron Sharpe | 6-11 center | 19 years old, freshman | North Carolina
39. Sacramento: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | 6-10 forward | 20 years old, sophomore | Villanova
40. New Orleans (via CHI): Santi Aldama | 6-11 big | 20 years old, sophomore | Loyola (MD)
41. San Antonio: Isaiah Todd | 6-10 big | 19 years old | G League Ignite
42. Detroit (via CHA): Josh Christopher | 6-4 guard | 19 years old, freshman | Arizona State
43. New Orleans (via WAS): Filip Petrusev | 7-0 center | 21 years old | Mega
44. Brooklyn (via IND): Joel Ayayi | 6-5 guard | 21 years old, junior | Gonzaga
45. Boston: Jason Preston | 6-4 guard | 22 years old, junior | Ohio
46. Toronto (via MEM): Juhann Begarin | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | Paris
47. Toronto (via GSW): Isaiah Livers | 6-7 wing | 22 years old, senior | Michigan
48. Atlanta (via MIA): Greg Brown | 6-8 forward | 19 years old, freshman | Texas
49. Brooklyn (via ATL): Sandro Mamukelashvili | 6-11 big | 22 years old, senior | Seton Hall
50. Philadelphia (via NYK): David Johnson | 6-5 guard | 20 years old, sophomore | Louisville
51. Memphis (via POR): Kessler Edwards | 6-8 wing | 20 years old, junior | Pepperdine
52. Detroit (via LAL): Vrenz Bleijenbergh | 6-10 wing | 20 years old | Antwerp
53. New Orleans (via DAL): Aaron Henry | 6-5 wing | 21 years old, junior | Michigan State
54. Indiana (via MIL): Charles Bassey | 6-10 center | 20 years old, junior | Western Kentucky
55. Oklahoma City (via DEN): Neemias Queta | 7-0 center | 21 years old, junior | Utah State
56. Charlotte (via LAC): Justin Champagnie | 6-7 forward | 20 years old | Pittsburgh
57. Charlotte (via BKN): Jericho Sims | 6-10 big | 22 years old, senior | Texas
58. New York (via PHI): Luka Garza | 6-11 center | 22 years old, senior | Iowa
59. Brooklyn (via PHX): Moses Wright | 6-9 big | 22 years old, senior | Georgia Tech
60. Indiana (via UTA): Matthew Hurt | 6-9 guard | 20 years old, sophomore | Duke
(Top design: Wes McCabe / The Athletic; photos: Mert Alper Dervis / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images and Sam Navarro / USA Today)
所寻皆是欢
好家伙,基恩都掉20顺位,着实离谱,还有魔术8号签,中锋位置都有两个高顺位新秀卡特和班巴了,培养都培养不过来了,还选申京也是离谱,魔术缺侧翼,选基恩或者穆迪他不香么?
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· 福建u1s1这版变动还是很大的