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搜我想看ESPN 2022选秀第二期模拟榜单：Chet Holmgren状元，预测Jalen Duren选择跳级
With Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, Evan Mobley and the rest of the 2021 draft class off to the NBA, it's time to shift our full attention to next year's crop of college and international players.
The 2022 NBA draft is less than 11 months away, but we've had our eyes on this group of players for quite some time. We've watched the class' best prospects grow up in high school, AAU and FIBA events, as well as other all-star settings in the past two years, despite pandemic-induced restrictions.
Still, as a result of the disjointed nature of events, NBA decision-makers say they know very little about this group at this stage. Teams skipped most scoutable events due to short-term prioritization of the 2021 NBA draft class, plus the need to be with their own teams during what was a very challenging season. Events continue to be canceled or reduced, including FIBA championships this summer, the Nike Skills Academy and an NBA Basketball Without Borders-type event that was planned for Dallas in September.
Those realities only place more emphasis on the coming season. Expect there to be significant movement as unheralded players emerge from the confusing haze of the past 18 months and other more highly regarded prospects inevitably stagnate after missing critical opportunities for development in the form of high-level competition.
Let's look at the way our mock sets up at this early stage, followed by the top storylines we expect to follow this class into 2022:
Note: The projected 2022 draft order is based on 2021-22 NBA championship odds from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill, with all ties broken by 2020-21 standings. The full 1-59 order also reflects picks owed and owned.
Chet Holmgren | Gonzaga | PF/C | Age: 19.2
Paolo Banchero | Duke | PF/C | Age: 18.6
Jaden Hardy | G League Ignite | SG | Age: 19.0
Jalen Duren | TBA | PF | Age: 17.6
Caleb Houstan | Michigan| SF/PF| Age: 18.5
Yannick Nzosa | Unicaja Malaga | C | Age: 17.6
Jabari Smith | Auburn | PF/C | Age: 18.1
A.J. Griffin | Duke | SF/PF | Age: 17.9
Peyton Watson | UCLA | SF | Age: 18.8
Patrick Baldwin Jr. | Milwaukee | SF/PF | Age: 18.6
J.D. Davison | Alabama | PG | Age: 18.8
12. Memphis Grizzlies (from New Orleans via Lakers)
Jaden Ivey | Purdue | SG | Age: 19.4
13. Memphis Grizzlies
Kennedy Chandler | Tennessee | PG | Age: 18.8
14. Toronto Raptors
Ousmane Dieng | New Zealand Breakers | SF/PF | Age: 18.1
15. Indiana Pacers
Jean Montero | Overtime Elite | PG/SG | Age: 18.0
16. New York Knicks
Dyson Daniels | G League Ignite | SG | Age: 18.3
17. Boston Celtics
TyTy Washington | Kentucky | PG | Age: 19.6
Daimion Collins | Kentucky | PF/C | Age: 18.7
19. Houston Rockets (from Miami)
Allen Flanigan | Auburn | SF | Age: 20.2
20. Atlanta Hawks
Bennedict Mathurin | Arizona | SG/SF | Age: 19.0
21. Dallas Mavericks
Tristan Vukcevic | Real Madrid | PF | Age: 18.3
22. Denver Nuggets
Nolan Hickman | Gonzaga | PG | Age: 18.2
23. Oklahoma City Thunder (from LA Clippers)
Earl Timberlake | Memphis | SF | Age: 20.7
Nikola Jovic | Mega Basket | SF | Age: 18.1
25. Utah Jazz
Roko Prkacin | TBA | PF | Age: 18.6
26. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Phoenix)
Khalifa Diop | Gran Canaria | C | Age: 19.5
Keegan Murray | Iowa | PF | Age: 20.9
28. Milwaukee Bucks
Jaime Jaquez Jr. | UCLA | SG | Age: 20.4
Caleb Love | North Carolina | PG/SG | Age: 19.8
30. Miami Heat (from Brooklyn)
Mark Williams | Duke | C | Age: 19.6
31. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Houston)
Michael Foster | G League Ignite | PF | Age: 18.1
32. Oklahoma City Thunder
Marcus Bagley | Arizona State | SF/PF | Age: 19.7
33. Washington Wizards (from Detroit)
Ochai Agbaji | Kansas | SG/SF | Age: 21.2
34. Orlando Magic
Andre Curbelo | Illinois | PG | Age: 19.7
35. New Orleans Pelicans (from Cleveland)
Hugo Besson | New Zealand Breakers | PG/SG | Age: 20.2
36. Minnesota Timberwolves
Josiah James | Tennessee | SG | Age: 20.8
37. Sacramento Kings
Johnny Juzang | UCLA | SF | Age: 20.3
38. Cleveland Cavaliers (from San Antonio)
Matthew Mayer | Baylor | SF/PF | Age: 21.8
39. Sacramento Kings (from Chicago)
Justin Lewis | Marquette | SF/PF | Age: 19.2
40. Charlotte Hornets
Gabriele Procida | Fortitudo Bologna | SG | Age: 19.1
41. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Cleveland via Washington)
Julian Champagnie | St. John's | SF/PF | Age: 20.0
Walker Kessler |Auburn | C | Age: 19.9
43. Memphis Grizzlies
Drew Timme | Gonzaga | PF/C | Age: 20.8
44. Golden State Warriors (from Toronto)
Ariel Hukporti | Melbourne United | C | Age: 19.2
45. Orlando Magic (from Indiana)
Ibou Dianko Badji | Barcelona| C | Age: 18.7
46. New York Knicks
Malcolm Cazalon | Mega Basket | SG | Age: 19.9
47. Boston Celtics
Taevion Kinsey | Marshall | SG | Age: 21.3
48. Portland Trail Blazers
Andrew Nembhard | Gonzaga | PG | Age: 21.5
49. Indiana Pacers (from Miami)
Max Abmas | Oral Roberts | PG | Age: 20.3
50. Atlanta Hawks
Azuolas Tubelis | Arizona | PF/C | Age: 19.3
51. Dallas Mavericks
Guil Santos | Minas Tennis Club | SF/PF | Age: 19.0
52. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Denver)
Terrence Shannon Jr. | Texas Tech | SG/SF | Age: 20.9
53. LA Clippers
Abramo Canka | Nevezis | SG/SF | Age: 19.3
54. Houston Rockets (from Philadelphia)
Zsombor Maronka | Joventut | SF | Age: 18.8
55. New Orleans Pelicans (from Utah Jazz)
Pavel Savkov | Vitoria | SG | Age: 19.2
56. Phoenix Suns
Will Richardson | Oregon | PG | Age: 21.8
57. Golden State Warriors
Jahvon Quinerly | Alabama | PG | Age: 22.6
58. Detroit Pistons (from Los Angeles Lakers)
DeVante' Jones | Michigan | PG/SG | Age: 23.2
59. Brooklyn Nets
Iverson Molinar | Mississippi St. | SG | Age: 21.6
*The Bucks forfeited their 2022 second-round pick for violating rules governing the timing of free-agency discussions.
Top storylines to watch for the class of 2022
Who's No. 1?
The race for the No. 1 pick is wide open at this point, even more so than in the 2021 NBA draft, where Cade Cunningham held the mantle of the top spot from start to finish, starting with our very first projection. We've already flip-flopped between Holmgren and Banchero atop our 2022 mock, and scouts sound split at the moment on which player will go first -- although strong showings at the Iverson Classic and FIBA U19 World Cup give Holmgren a slight edge for now. NBA executives have already circled Nov. 26 on their calendars, when Holmgren and Banchero will match up head-to-head as Duke faces Gonzaga at the Continental Tire Challenge from Las Vegas, a game that is already sold out and will be a banner scouting event, along with the Champions Classic.
Where will Duren play?
Duren, the No. 2 prospect in the rising high school senior class of 2022, is widely expected to announce he's enrolling in college a year early, making him eligible to be drafted in 2022. Sources said Duren's academic coursework is largely in order and that he should have little issue receiving his high school diploma in time. We've tentatively projected him at No. 4 in this mock draft, as it appears inevitable that he'll either be playing in college or professionally this upcoming season, with Penny Hardaway's Memphis Tigers considered the team to beat for Duren's services right now.
Deep draft coming
As we've previously documented, a serious bottleneck has emerged after a large chunk of players either decided not to enter the 2020 NBA draft or ended up withdrawing their names due to the restrictions they encountered -- and the significant uncertainty those restrictions inspired -- in the pre-draft process. That carried over to the 2021 draft, as 16 players in the ESPN top 100 elected to withdraw from the draft by the NCAA and NBA deadlines. That doesn't include the eight returning collegians currently projected as 2022 first-rounders, none of whom entered the 2021 draft.
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Those realities, combined with the usual two dozen or so one-and-done candidates from the rising freshman and 2003-born international class, should provide for a significant amount of depth to the 2022 class. It also means NBA teams have as much ground to cover as ever on scouting trips, including evaluation of the new Overtime Elite venture, the G League Ignite team, the Australian NBL and the other 16 international prospects currently projected to be drafted, an unusually high number. Both OTE and Ignite have said they plan to play part of their season abroad competing against international teams and academies, forcing NBA scouts to renew passports that lapsed during the pandemic.
Big year for bigs?
The draft typically serves as a good indication of how the NBA is trending positionally. We've seen a significant uptick in versatile, multipositional wings picked in the first round the past few years. Centers appear to have been devalued somewhat, as evidenced by only three (Evan Mobley, Isaiah Jackson, Day'Ron Sharpe) being selected in the first round this year. Smaller point guards who project as one-position players also seem to be on the way out to an extent. This is a supply-and-demand issue, too, as most teams are unlikely to reach for a player type (especially a big man) they can just as easily find in free agency, with defensive versatility being a major priority.
Is Duke-bound Paolo Banchero a true threat to Chet Holmgren at No. 1 overall in 2022? Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire
But the trend around bigs will be tested in the next draft -- five of the top seven players currently projected to be drafted are 6-foot-10 or taller. Most are either highly versatile perimeter big men (especially Holmgren and Banchero) or are expected to develop into defensive anchor types (Duren and Yannick Nzosa), although that is subject to scrutiny as the season unfolds.
The last time five of the top seven players selected were big men was 2018, when Deandre Ayton, Marvin Bagley III, Jaren Jackson Jr., Mo Bamba and Wendell Carter Jr. went 1, 2, 4, 6 and 7, respectively. Bagley, Bamba, Carter and (to a lesser extent) Jackson have not yet lived up to expectations, which could certainly play a role in how the top of the 2022 draft is viewed. It's a fairly safe bet to say that the tall, versatile wing/forwards, such as Griffin, Watson, Baldwin and Dieng will have every opportunity to establish themselves as top-five picks when it's all said and done, as there is little doubt that the NBA is evolving far more in their direction than it is toward big men.
It's important to point out that 10 players who played primarily at center ended up being selected in the top 35 of the 2020 NBA draft, with half of those going in the top 20. Most of those have underachieved their draft position thus far as well, especially those picked in the top 10 (James Wiseman, Onyeka Okongwu and Obi Toppin), although it's too early to draw definitive conclusions at this stage.
Early movement on 2022 draft order
A number of draft picks have already changed hands in 2022:
Oklahoma City's first-rounder is owned by Atlanta if OKC's pick falls between 15 and 30 in 2022, which seems unlikely. If Oklahoma City misses the playoffs as expected, Atlanta will instead receive the Thunder's 2024 and 2025 second-round picks.
Oklahoma City owns the Los Angeles Clippers' first-rounder, which is unprotected.
Oklahoma City also owns Phoenix's first-rounder, if it falls in the 13-30 range. If Phoenix surprisingly ends the season with one of the 12 worst records in the NBA, the Suns will convey their pick in 2023 (top-10 protected), their 2024 pick (top-eight protected) or an unprotected pick in 2025.
Houston will receive either Brooklyn's or Miami's first-round pick, whichever is better, provided Miami makes the playoffs next year. If Miami makes the playoffs but finishes lower in the standings than Brooklyn, it will receive the Nets' first-rounder (while sending its own to Houston) as part of the same swap. New Orleans owns the Los Angeles Lakers' first-rounder (unprotected). Memphis owns Utah's first-rounder if it falls between No. 7 and 30.
Detroit will convey its first-round pick to Houston in the unlikely event it falls in the 17-30 range.
For the full list of upcoming draft assets, visit Bobby Marks' complete list of NBA draft assets for future drafts.
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