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What Evan Mobley's injury means for the Cleveland Cavaliers' surprising start

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers' fast start withstand injuries to multiple starters?

After losing starting guard Collin Sexton to a meniscus tear last week, the Cavaliers announced Tuesday that fast-starting rookie Evan Mobley will miss the next two to four weeks with a ligament sprain in his right elbow.

In years past, such injuries might not have been a concern, as Cleveland rebuilt through the draft. That's changed early this season, however, as the Cavaliers have surged to fifth in the Eastern Conference standings by starting 9-6.

Already, Cleveland is assured of being above-.500 deeper into the season than at any other point since LeBron James' departure for the Los Angeles Lakers in the summer of 2018. (Last year's Cavaliers started 8-7 before fading.)

Although Mobley should be back by the end of December, Sexton's timetable hasn't yet been announced. Presumably, he and the team are deciding on the appropriate treatment for his meniscus tear, which will determine whether his absence could extend much of the season.

Let's take a look at how Cleveland will replace Mobley and Sexton, and what it means to the Cavaliers' hopes of returning to the playoffs ahead of schedule.

Different timetables for Sexton's return

There are a handful of possible outcomes for players like Sexton with meniscus tears. Occasionally, a small tear can be treated with rest and rehab, as was the case with Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid in last year's playoffs. Embiid returned to play through the injury within a week.

Much more commonly, surgery is required. That's where there are two paths with very different timetables. A meniscectomy removes the injured part of the meniscus, allowing a player to come back from the injury within a matter of weeks, not months.

Depending on the location and size of the tear, it's also possible to undergo a meniscus repair. That can be better long-term because it preserves the meniscus, but the recovery process is much longer. James Wiseman, the No. 2 overall pick of the 2020 draft, underwent a meniscus repair in April and still hasn't been cleared to return to the court. A repair would likely end Sexton's season.

Looming over Sexton's decision is his impending restricted free agency. Sexton and the Cavaliers were unable to agree to an extension to his rookie contract before the Oct. 18 deadline.

Rubio becomes critical without Sexton

Because starting wing Isaac Okoro returned from a hamstring strain just as Sexton went out of the lineup, Cleveland coach J.B. Bickerstaff was able to swap in Okoro for Sexton without dramatically changing the rest of his rotation. However, Sexton's absence has increased the importance of newcomer Ricky Rubio, who's played well in his first season with the Cavaliers.

Despite coming off the bench, Rubio has averaged the fourth-most minutes on the team (31.2) over the four games since Sexton went out of the lineup. Beforehand, Cleveland's best lineups tended to feature Rubio alongside fellow point guard Darius Garland, a combination that's worked well by offering more playmaking and size in the backcourt than the Cavaliers' duo of Garland and Sexton.

The biggest concern for Cleveland if Sexton misses an extended stretch is: What happens if another perimeter contributor goes down? The Cavaliers have also gotten a bounce-back season from reserve wing Cedi Osman, who's making a career-best 42% of his 3s after hitting just 31% in a disappointing 2020-21 campaign. Get beyond that group, and Cleveland is looking at rotation minutes for Dylan Windler (who's shot well in limited playing time), Lamar Stevens or newcomer Denzel Valentine.

Mobley's skills are more difficult to replace

It's rare that an injury to a rookie affects a team's record, but Mobley has already proven an exception as the No. 3 overall pick. He's quickly established himself as one of the league's most versatile defenders, capable of defending on the perimeter against stretch 4s or on switches, as well as being a potent rim protector when stationed in the paint.

It's that defensive component where Mobley will be most difficult to replace. He's also averaging 14.6 points and 2.5 assists per game on offense, but the Cavaliers can get similar production from the high post from Kevin Love and Lauri Markkanen, who are nearing a return after missing time because of the NBA's health and safety protocols.

Most likely, Markkanen will eventually fill Mobley's spot in the starting lineup at power forward after the two players started together in big frontcourts to begin the season. That leaves Love coming off the bench at both frontcourt spots. Although neither has shot the ball well yet this season (Markkanen made 28% of his 3s in eight games, while Love was at 21% from deep and 45% on 2s in seven games), they provide more floor spacing than Mobley via their reputations as shooters.

Defensively, neither Markkanen nor Love offers the same kind of rim protection as Mobley. Opponents had made just 52% of their attempts within five feet with Mobley as a primary defender, per Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats, putting him 10th among players who have defended at least 10 such shot attempts. By contrast, opponents have shot 57% against Love and 67% against Markkanen from that range. Last season, those marks were 73% for Love and 60% for Markkanen.

That weakness in terms of rim protection will be magnified when starting center Jarrett Allen is off the court, likely leaving Love at center. Thus far, Bickerstaff has managed his rotation to keep either Allen or Mobley on the floor at nearly all times. Per my analysis of lineup data from NBA Advanced Stats, one or the other has played center for 668 of the team's 720 minutes.

The outlook in Cleveland

Mobley's absence comes at a tough time for the Cavaliers, who are about to enter a difficult stretch of their schedule. Over the next two weeks, Cleveland plays the Brooklyn Nets (twice), Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns -- a stretch only briefly interrupted by a home game against the lottery-bound Orlando Magic.

The week after that brings matchups with the Miami Heat, Utah Jazz and defending champion Milwaukee Bucks ahead of one against the Chicago Bulls before the schedule lightens. With or without Mobley and Sexton, this period was likely to serve as a reality check for the Cavaliers.

In part because other East teams have also started better than expected, Cleveland's playoff odds (9% before accounting for the Mobley injury) haven't budged much in FiveThirtyEight's projections. In a best-case scenario, the Cavaliers can survive the next couple of weeks with their record still around .500, and then resume playing better than that once Mobley is back in the lineup. That's a lot to ask of a team with low expectations entering the season.