Houston Rockets: What’s Alperen Sengun ceiling?

Houston Rockets’ rookie, Alperen Sengun, has quickly emerged as a foundational piece for the franchise. His swift acclimation to the NBA shouldn’t have come as a surprise. He was the MVP of the Turkish League, widely considered the third-best professional league in the world, as an 18-year-old.

His MVP campaign saw him average 19.2 points and 9.4 rebounds per game on 64.6-percent shooting. The Rockets landing him with the 16th pick on draft night was a steal, and with each passing day it looks more and more like a Danny Ocean plotted heist.

Through his first 14 games, Sengun has passed both the eye and metrics test. If given more playing time, he would be making a serious run at Rookie of the Year.

The only disappointing part of Sengun’s rookie season has been his lack of playing time. He’s averaging 18.3 minutes per game, has only made two starts, and just had a game against the Oklahoma City Thunder where he only played five minutes.

(Where’s Christopher Walken to tell Stephen Silas that they have a fever, and the only prescription is more Sengun when you need him?)

Alperen Sengun should see his minutes tick up as the season goes on. The Rockets are rebuilding, and developing chemistry between him and Jalen Green will soon become one of the season’s priorities. The franchise’s timeline for contention hinges on the pair both hitting as good to great NBA players.

Jalen Green is poised to become an All-Star, but what does Sengun’s future look like? If his rookie season is any indication, it appears to be blindingly bright.

Alperen Sengun’s scoring

Let’s ignore Sengun’s current per-game stats and instead focus on his per 36-minute statistics to gauge where he is right now. On a per 36 minute basis, Sengun is averaging 17.2 points, 9.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 2.5 steals, and 1.1 blocks. He’s gotten his points on 47.1-percent shooting from the field and 37.5-percent shooting from 3-point range.

Sengun’s 17.2 points per 36 minutes lead all NBA teenagers. While teenagers make up an incredibly small percentage of the NBA, it illustrates just how rare it is for a player as young as Sengun to be this productive.

Sengun’s 3-point shooting efficiency (37.5-percent) won’t continue. He’s only shooting 66.7-percent from the free-throw line, which is a good indicator that his jump shot still has a ways to go. He may one day develop a credible 3-point shot, but it’s probably a few seasons away.

Sengun’s poor free-throw shooting might mean that his jumper isn’t NBA ready, but the amount he is getting to the line portends star-level upside.

Sengun is averaging 7.6 free throw attempts per 36 minutes to go along with a free throw rate of .635 (free throw rate is the number of free throw attempts per field goal attempts). As a rookie, his per 36 minutes free throw attempts is sixth-best in the league, and his free throw rate, of players who have played more than 100 minutes, is fifth-best.

Getting to the free-throw line is the hallmark of just about every elite scorer. Of the top-20 players in free throw attempts per game, just four are averaging under 20 points per game. The early indication is that Sengun will be a 20 points per game scorer at the bare minimum.

Alperen Sengun’s passing

Just about every night Alperen Sengun attempts a jaw-dropping pass. Sometimes it's a turnover, sometimes it doesn't count, but sometimes it leads to a bucket.

Sengun’s assist numbers won’t have him confused with LaMelo Ball. However, 4.1 assists per 36 minutes is an impressive total, especially given context. The Rockets have the sixth-worst team field goal percentage. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, but for someone to get an assist someone else needs to hit a shot.

Sengun, on a better shooting team, would have more assists by virtue of having better teammates. The other important piece of context is his position. This season, Sengun has split time between power forward and center. His per 36 minutes assist total of 4.1 ranks 79th in the NBA, but it is 10th among power forwards and centers.

The nine power forwards and centers ahead of him are Draymond Green, Nikola Jokic, Thaddeus Young, Giannis Antekounmpo, Kevin Durant, Julius Randle, Josh Hart, Nikola Vucevic, and Nemanja Bjelica. Positionally, Sengun is already an elite passer.

Sengun’s assist numbers look good, but he hasn’t been perfect. He has 30 turnovers to 29 assists this season. However, only 13 of his turnovers have come from bad passes. The next step for Sengun is to be able to have an offense run through him. If the early returns are any indication, he shouldn’t have any problem dishing dimes.

Alperen Sengun’s defending

The only reason Alperen Sengun was available with the 16th pick was because of concerns over his defense. Sengun doesn’t have the physical traits that teams look for in interior or perimeter defenders.

He isn’t incredibly tall, his wingspan is average, and his feet are slow, but that hasn’t mattered. Sengun is averaging 2.5 steals and 1.1 blocks per 36 minutes. His 2.5 steals per 36 minutes is the fourth-best mark in the NBA of players who have played over 200 minutes.

Unfortunately, Sengun’s block numbers are far less impressive. His 1.1 blocks per 36 minutes is only 55th in the league. The lack of blocks has obscured his positional instincts. Sengun leads the Rockets in field goals defended at the rim with 4.4 per game. Opponents are finishing at a 64.5-percent clip, which is slightly better than the league average conversion rate within three feet (67.1-percent).

Sengun won’t be able to have a defense built around him. His ability to protect the rim isn’t poor, but it will never be elite. However, his defense, once a major concern, looks like it will be passable to above average. Sengun's penchant for being in the right place at the right time goes a long way.

Alperen Sengun’s ceiling

Alperen Sengun’s ceiling is All-NBA. His offensive potential gives him a chance to be a top-three power forward or center. While saying he could be the next Nikola Jokic because of his passing and scoring is tempting, it is disrespectful to Jokic and unfair to Sengun. Jokic just won an MVP with an All-Time great season and has followed that up with an even better one.

Sengun’s ceiling is a turbo-charged Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis is lethal ten feet or closer from the basket, is an excellent passer, rebounds well, and is limited defensively. Over the past three seasons, Sabonis has averaged 19.3 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 5.6 assists on 54.2-percent shooting.

Sengun, because of his free throw generating capabilities, audacious passing, and deft hands, should be able to eclipse Sabonis’s level of production. Sabonis is only 25 and already a two-time All-Star. If Sengun can match his level of production with a little extra on top, that sounds like an All-NBA quality player.

Only three players are averaging more than 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists a game. Giannis Antekounmpo, Julius Randle (he’s at 19.8 points per game), and Nikola Jokic. All three made an All-NBA team last season, and Jokic and Antekounmpo have won the last three MVPs.

Sengun’s ceiling is sky-high. It’s unlikely he’ll win an MVP, which is the case for every player, but he looks like a lock to be an All-Star and has a great chance to make an All-NBA team. Not bad for the 16th pick.