虎扑体育网

当时发这个帖子，是因为有不少人在讨论杜兰特是否可以破詹姆斯的最年轻的记录。有些人对杜兰特破记录的可能性呲之以鼻的。所以，我就较个真，把这个小学数学问题梳理了一下。就是想和那些“不在乎”这项荣誉的又认为不可能的球迷探讨一下可能性。

最近詹姆斯刚破23000分最年轻的记录。又有人挖我的贴，我只好再修改修改。希望版主留着这帖子，因为他需要时间证明。希望可以有机会证明！

注意：我只是表达一个意思——可能性。并不针对什么杜兰特父母、詹姆斯父母、联盟赛程安排，不怪这个，也不怪那个，我就是想告诉你们：“可能，很可能。” 而已。

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NBA每个赛季的时间是11 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月1 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日左右到4月底，历时不到6个月。詹姆斯生日是12 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月30 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日，杜兰特生日是9 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月29 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日。每次过生日的时候，詹姆斯已经打了两个月的NBA，大约35场的比赛，杜兰特的生日处于休赛期，没有得分进账，因此詹姆斯在生日时间点上占据了一定的优势。

mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">所以，詹姆斯生日之前越接近赛季初的记录，杜兰特破起来有优势，詹姆斯生日以后到赛季结束的记录，杜兰特难破。但15000mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分以后，詹姆斯就没有生日前的纪录。

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mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">以下为根据原帖及时间发展修改的内容（杜兰特未打的比赛以场均30mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分计算）：

 

mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">最年轻15000mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分，2010 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">年3 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月20 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">，詹姆斯25mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">岁79mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">天。杜兰特同龄是在2013 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">年12 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月17 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">，杜兰特在这个时间得到的分数是：12914mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分，Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">差距是2186Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">分。

mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">最年轻16000mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分，2010 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">年12 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月24 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">，詹姆斯差6mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">天26mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">岁。杜兰特是2014 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">年9 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月23 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">。但是，杜兰特在2014 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">年4 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月20 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">得到14669+6*Xmso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">≈14849mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分以后，赛季就结束了。到9 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月23 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">，Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">差距是1180Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">分Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">。

mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">最年轻17000mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分，2011 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">年3 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月19 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">，詹姆斯26mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">岁零79mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">天。杜兰特是2014 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">年12 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月18 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">。悲剧，一个打满赛季快结束了，一个赛季刚开始，场次差好多。杜兰特只比4 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月20 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">多打约25mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">场比赛，只能涨约750mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分，等于15599mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分，Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">差距是1401Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">分mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">。

mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">最年轻18000mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分，2012 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">年2 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月4 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">，詹姆斯27mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">岁36mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">天，杜兰特同龄是在2015 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">年11 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月5 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">，同样一个处于赛季中段，一个赛季刚开始。杜兰特估计可以比上个节点涨60mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">场比赛1800mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分，约17399mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分，Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">差距缩小至601mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">分mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:#121212">。仔细看，杜兰特得到17299mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:#121212">左右的分数是在2015 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">年4 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月20 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">左右，不过，之后漫长的休赛期没比赛了，哪怕有个20mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">场比赛……

mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">最年轻19000mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分，2012 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">年4 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月20 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">，詹姆斯27mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">岁111mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">天，杜兰特同龄在2016 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">年1 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月18 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">。比上个节点多打35mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">场，1050mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分，18449mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">。Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">差距缩小至551mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">分mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:#121212">。

Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold">最年轻2000010.5pt;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold">分2013 10.5pt;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold">年1 10.5pt;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold">月16 10.5pt;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold">日Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold">，詹姆斯2810.5pt;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold">岁1710.5pt;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold">天，杜兰特mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">同龄Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold">在2016 10.5pt;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold">年10 10.5pt;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold">月16 10.5pt;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold">日Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold">，悲剧的处于休赛期，比上个节点只能多打4310.5pt;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold">场，129010.5pt;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold">分，1973910.5pt;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold">。Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">差距缩小至261mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">分mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:#121212">。宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:red">注意！杜兰特拿到这个分数的实际时间是2016 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">年4 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">月18 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">日Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">。27Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">岁231Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">天。Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:blue">詹姆斯拿到19739Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:blue">分是在2013 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:blue">年12 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:blue">月29 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:blue">日Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:blue">，他已经27Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:blue">岁364Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:blue">天了。实际上杜兰特得到19046Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:blue">至19739Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:blue">分所有的分数都比詹姆斯年轻130Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:blue">天左右。

mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">最年轻21000mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分，2013 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">年4 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月7 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">，詹mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">姆mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:#121212">斯28mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:#121212">岁97mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:#121212">天，杜兰特同龄在2017 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">年1 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月4 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">。比上个节点多打30mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">场，900mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分，20639mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">。Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">差距361Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">分mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">。

mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">最年轻22000mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分，2014 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">年1 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月11 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">，詹mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">姆mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:#121212">斯29mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:#121212">岁11mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:#121212">天，杜兰特同龄在2017 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">年10 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月10 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">。比上个节点多打52mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">场，1560mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分，22199Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">分。超过了！实际上，杜兰特在2017 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">年4 Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">月1 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">日Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">左右就可以得到22000Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">分了。那时候，杜兰特才28mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">岁183Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:red">天！ 

mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">最年轻23000mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分，2014 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">年4 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月5 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">，詹姆斯29mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">岁95mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">天，杜兰特同龄在2018 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">年1 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">月2 Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">日mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">。比上个节点多打30mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">场，900mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#121212">分，23099分。

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所以，反过来推算，以2014年4宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"times="" roman""="">月8日杜兰特的14669分起算： 

杜兰特需要在接下来的6+82+82=170场比赛里场均得到31.36分，就可以在27岁231宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"times="" roman";="" mso-bidi-font-weight:bold"="">天的时候破了詹姆斯28岁17宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"times="" roman";="" mso-bidi-font-weight:bold"="">天的最年轻20000分记录。休息4宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"times="" roman";="" mso-bidi-font-weight:bold"="">场，则需32.12分。 

杜兰特需要在接下来的6+82+82+30=200场比赛里场均得到31.66分，就可以在28岁96宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"times="" roman";="" mso-bidi-font-weight:bold"="">天的时候破了詹姆斯28岁97宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"times="" roman";="" mso-bidi-font-weight:bold"="">天的最年轻21000分记录。休息4宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"times="" roman";="" mso-bidi-font-weight:bold"="">场，则需32.31分。 

杜兰特需要在接下来的6+82+82+82=252场比赛里场均得到29.10分，就可以在28岁231宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"times="" roman";="" mso-bidi-font-weight:bold"="">天的时候破了詹姆斯29岁11宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"times="" roman";="" mso-bidi-font-weight:bold"="">天的最年轻22000分记录。休息6宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"times="" roman";="" mso-bidi-font-weight:bold"="">场，则需29.81分。 

杜兰特需要在接下来的6+82+82+82+30=282场比赛里场均得到29.55分，就可以在29岁94宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"times="" roman";="" mso-bidi-font-weight:bold"="">天的时候破了詹姆斯29岁957宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"times="" roman";="" mso-bidi-font-weight:bold"="">天的最年轻23000分记录。休息6宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"times="" roman";="" mso-bidi-font-weight:bold"="">场，则需30.20分。

杜兰特需要在接下来的6+82+82=170场比赛里场均得到25.75分，就可以在27岁231天的时候破了詹姆斯27岁306天的最年轻19046分记录。如果休息4场，则需26.38分。如果场均30 分，只需146场，杜兰特可以在这两个赛季休息24场。——这是我这个帖子标题的意思，20000分以前将有一部分分数的最年轻记录是杜兰特的，除非你认为他接下来两个赛季场均得不到25.75分，或者他将缺阵超过24场。

结论： 20000分以后詹姆斯所有的最年轻记录，越接近赛季初创造的，杜兰特破起来越轻松，而且可以大幅度提高最年轻记录，越接近赛季末创造的，杜兰特破起来越艰难。

另外，因为2011-12" times="" new="" roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"times="" roman";color:blue"="">赛季是缩水赛季。这是杜兰特的第5个、詹姆斯的第9" times="" new="" roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"times="" roman";color:blue"="">个赛季。因此，在詹姆斯第5至第9" times="" new="" roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"times="" roman";color:blue"="">个赛季里所有的最年轻纪录，杜兰特都几乎不可能破了。但是，詹姆斯第9个赛季以后的最年轻记录，就距离杜兰特越来越近了。