NBA Offseason Guide 2022: Orlando Magic and their ongoing rebuild

There is no question that rebuilding in the NBA requires patience and a little luck.

For the Orlando Magic, the patience part will require an understanding that the sustainability of the roster they're building outweighs any shortcut to a return to the playoffs. Orlando's front office has realized that building a competitive roster for the foreseeable future will come via in-house development, the draft, shrewd trades and not excessive spending in free agency.

"We do need to develop these young guys," President of Basketball Operations Jeff Weltman told the media before the season started. "We definitely want to move them forward. We want our team to grow and develop. The sooner the better. That said, we're not going to sacrifice the bright future that's in front of us for a sugar high, which I kind of felt like we had been doing previously."

As the Magic enter Year Two of their roster transformation, here is a look at all the big decisions that await this offseason, starting with the state of the roster.

State of the roster

Roster status: Rebuilding (Year Two)

Orlando's 26-77 record since the 2021 trade deadline should not be a sign of discouragement.

The Magic knew that there would be growing pains this season with a roster that featured seven players on rookie contracts (second-youngest team in the NBA) and two of their more established players, Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac on the sidelines rehabbing from a prior injury. Fultz eventually returned in March but was on a minutes restriction and Isaac missed the entire season rehabbing his knee injury from 2020.

The goals this season were not about wins and losses, but each player improving from the start of the season and not developing bad habits. There is a clear argument to be made that the core players on the roster, namely Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr., improved over the course of the season.

Wagner ranks third in points per game among rookies and scored 38 points against Milwaukee in late December. Per ESPN Stats and Information, Carter is one of 11 players averaging 15 points, 10 rebounds and shooting 50% this season, and is the youngest player in that group.

If there is a concern moving forward it is the inefficient play at the guard position. The Magic are 29th in offensive efficiency and they have struggled in pick-and-roll actions. Per Second Spectrum, Orlando is averaging 0.87 points per direct play when setting an on-ball screen. That is the worst efficiency by any team over the past five seasons.

Cole Anthony averaged a career high 16.9 points but also led the team in field goal attempts and 3-point attempts. A big red flag for Anthony is his inability to finish at the rim. Out of the 132 players who have attempted 200 layups or dunks this season, Anthony is one of three who shot below 50% (James Harden and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are the other two).

Rookie Jalen Suggs averaged 27.1 minutes and struggled with injuries and his play on the court. Out of the 206 players who attempted 200-plus jumpers this season, Suggs ranked last in field goal percentage and 124th in field goal percentage on layups and dunks.

The offensive woes could change next season with another year of development and Markelle Fultz moving back to full time point guard next season. In only 18.2 minutes per game, Fultz averaged 9.5 points, 4.3 assists and shot 45.7% from three.

Fultz was also a big part of the Magic having some mild success after the All-Star game. The Magic have gone [7-11] since the break and have had three sets of back-to-back wins. Orlando also ranked second in defensive efficiency in that span, behind only the Memphis Grizzlies. Moving forward, ownership has entrusted Weltman and GM John Hammond with a blank canvas on building the roster. Both recently inked long term extensions and have the resources to build a competitive roster.

Orlando has three draft picks in the top 35 this June, including a likely top-four selection. The Magic also own nine first-round picks in future years (they are owed first-round picks from Chicago and Denver).

They have potential cap flexibility to add in free agency either with veterans to improve their bench depth or take back salary and add to their pool of draft assets.

Mohammed Bamba and cap flexibility

Before the season started, the only thing guaranteed for Mo Bamba was the $7.6M salary that he was set to earn in 2021-22.

After three non-descript seasons of dealing with health issues and inconsistent play, Bamba's future beyond this season was anything but guaranteed, especially given that Orlando inked Carter to a four-year, $50 million extension before the season started.

However, Bamba made a concerted effort last offseason to improve his all-around game, starting with his conditioning.

"This summer, I prided myself on a couple things," he said back at media day in September. "I wanted to work on my conditioning. I wanted to work on my finishing around the rim. But I think one of the things that comes along with just time in the NBA and just playing is my IQ. I'm able to see plays happen before they happen. I'm able to make reads. I think that's one thing I'm really excited to get out there and show this year."

This season Bamba averaged career highs in points, 3-point field goal percentage, free throw percentage, rebounds and blocks. He ranked in the top-10 in 3-point makes among centers this season.

The concern with locking up Bamba to a lucrative contract is his fit with Carter. In the 990 minutes with both players on the court, Orlando has a net efficiency of minus-5.8. That number drops to minus-1.0 with only Carter by himself and increases to minus-16.1 with just Bamba.

Now entering the offseason, Bamba's contract will dictate how much flexibility the Magic will have. Orlando has $82 million in guaranteed salary but the Magic will be right up against the $122 million salary because of Bamba's $22.7 million cap hold and the cap hold for their first-round pick.

How that cap space evolves will depend on several factors. The first is the Magic front office determining if they want to stay over the cap or become a room team.

The under-the-cap scenario is to sign Bamba to a contract in the $10-12 million range, comparable to his $10.1 million qualifying offer, and use the remaining $16 million to sign free agents or take back unwanted contracts (while adding draft picks) in a trade. The Magic could increase that available cap space to $27 million by trading veteran Terrence Ross and not taking back salary in return.

However, to create room, Orlando would also need to renounce veteran Gary Harris, who averaged 11.1 points and shot 38.4% from 3 while playing in his most games since 2017-18 this past season..

The over-the-cap scenario has Orlando preserving its $10.3 million midlevel and $4.0 million biannual exception, signing Bamba to the same contract as referenced above and bringing back Harris. This would now give the Magic two tradable contracts in Bamba and Harris that could be used closer to the deadline. Orlando would have 11 players between $2.4 and $17.4 million in salary.

One thing to keep in mind is that there is no salary relief this season for Isaac unless the Magic are willing to waive him and stretch the guaranteed portion over the next seven seasons. However, because Isaac missed the entire season and failed to play at least 25 games this season, the guaranteed portion of his remaining contract has been reduced to $16 million in 2022-23, $7.4 million in 2023-24 and nothing in 2024-25.

PG SG SF PF C

M. Fultz J. Suggs F. Wagner J. Isaac W. Carter Jr.

C. Anthony R. Hampton T. Ross C. Okeke

M. WagnerNG

NG=Non-guaranteed

Team needs

• Player development for third-youngest team

• A healthy Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac

• Bench scoring

• Backup center

Resources to build the roster

• The draft: Three picks in the top 35

• Controllable contracts: Five players on rookie deals

• Restricted free agent Mo Bamba

• Own free agents: Gary Harris and Robin Lopez

• Cap flexibility: Can create up to $27M in room

• Room midlevel: $5.3M

• Expiring contract of Terrence Ross

• Cash: $6.3 million to send or receive in a trade

• Future draft assets: Chicago and Denver first-round picks

Dates to watch

• JUNE 29: The Magic have until this date to tender Bamba a one-year, $10.1M qualifying offer that will make him a restricted free agent. After starting only six games in his first three seasons, Bamba has started 47 games this year, making him eligible for the higher "starter criteria" qualifying offer.

• JUNE 29: The Magic also have until this date to tender qualifying offers to Bol Bol ($2.2M), Ignas Brazdeikis ($50K) and Admiral Schofield ($50K).

• JUNE 30: The $1.9 million contract of forward Moritz Wagner is guaranteed if he is on the roster past this date. The fourth-year forward has appeared in 45 games this season, averaging 7.6 points in only 12.5 minutes.

Restrictions

• The poison-pill restriction on Carter's contract does not get lifted until July 1. Carter signed a four-year, $50 million rookie extension last October. For trade purposes, Carter Jr. counts as $6.9 million in outgoing salary and $11.4 million in incoming salary for the acquiring team until July 1.

• The Magic received $3.63 million from Boston at the trade deadline. They are restricted to $2.1 million that they can receive in a trade. Starting on July 1, their cash allotment (to receive or send) replenishes to $6.2 million.

• Because the $1.9 million contract of Mo Wagner is non-guaranteed, his salary counts as zero in a trade until it becomes guaranteed.

Extension eligible

Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz and Wendell Carter Jr. all received contract extensions in recent seasons, but that trend is likely to end this offseason. First, the Magic do not have a player who is entering the fourth year of a rookie-scale contract.

Second, Isaac and Fultz are extension eligible starting on Sept. 30 but are not in consideration to have years added to their existing contract. Ross is also extension eligible, but giving him a contract extension would put a six-month trade restriction on him, making him harder to deal.

The draft

The Magic are sitting on a stockpile of draft picks. Orlando has three picks in the top 35 this June, controls all of its future first-round picks, and is owed two future firsts. The pick from Chicago is top-4 protected in 2023 and top-3 protected in 2024. It will turn into second-round picks in 2026 and 2027 if not conveyed.

From the Aaron Gordon trade, Orlando will receive a top-5 protected first from the Nuggets in 2025. However, if Denver does not convey Oklahoma City a first in 2023 (top-14 protected), the pick will rollover to 2026 (top-5 protected). The first is also top-5 protected in 2027 if not previously conveyed.

Including the two second-round picks this year, the Magic have a total of 13 second rounders. Since Weltman took over in 2017, Orlando has traded out of the second round four out of the past five years.

Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have the Magic selecting in June:

No. 1 (own): Chet Holmgren, PF, Gonzaga

We've truly never seen an NBA prospect quite like Holmgren: A shot-blocking, lob-catching, 3-point shooting, ballhandling 7-foot-1 "big man" with the fluidity of a guard and a relentlessness that doesn't match his slender, 195-pound frame. With a body type that earns him comparisons ranging from Kevin Durant to Brandon Ingram to Kristaps Porzingis to Bol Bol, Holmgren has let his game do the talking, as he is in the midst of a record-breaking freshman season for Gonzaga. He is the only prospect in NCAA history to average at least 14 points, nine rebounds and three blocks while shooting over 70% from 2 and 40% from 3, and he's doing so on the No. 1 team. -- Schmitz

No. 31 (own): David Roddy, PF, Colorado State

The Mountain West Conference player of the year, Roddy emerged as a potential All-American and one of the most versatile and unique college players as a junior. At 6-foot-6, he sees quite a few minutes at center, which he can thrive at thanks to his 260-pound frame. While he's comfortable operating with his back to the basket, he's also a creative ball-handler and outstanding passer who is converting 45% of his 3-pointers on the season, making him a huge mismatch that has lit up mid-major and high-major teams alike. -- Givony

No. 33 (via IND): Christian Braun, SG/SF, Kansas

Braun plays up to four positions for Kansas, switching seamlessly on the perimeter, putting a body on big men in the post and doing quite a bit of facilitation in the half-court. He's an outstanding rebounder, Kansas' best rim-protector, and is converting 38% of his 3-pointers, making him one of the more versatile wing players in this class. Somewhat of a jack of all trades, master of none, Braun's ability to emerge as a consistent scoring presence, and not run away from open jump-shots, will be scrutinized by scouts as the stakes rise in big moments. -- Givony