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[翻译团]休斯顿火箭，奥兰多魔术以及底特律活塞该如何使用2022NBA选秀的状元签

What the Houston Rockets, Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons should do with the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA draft

2022年NBA选秀将让联盟中最差的球队有机会选择一名可以让他们在下一个及以后的赛季咸鱼翻身的球员。休斯顿火箭队，奥兰多魔术队和底特律活塞队都有14%的几率获得状元签，而且显而易见的是，每支球队都在为这种情况（获得状元签）和其他相对不利的情况进行规划。

The 2022 NBA draft will give a selection of the league's worst teams a chance to select a player who can improve their fortunes for next season and beyond. The Houston Rockets, Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons each have 14% odds to obtain that No. 1 pick, and it stands to reason that each is in the process of planning for that scenario and others of a less favorable variety.

但是与之前的选秀相比，在今年的选秀中，关于谁应该是第一个被选中的人，人们没有达成共识。6月23日的巴克莱中心不会有凯德·坎宁安、安东尼·爱德华兹或锡安·威廉姆森，而是一众潜在的精英球员，包括切特·霍姆格伦、贾巴里·史密斯和保罗·班切罗。

But compared to previous drafts, there is less of a consensus in this year's event on who the first pick in the draft should be. There will be no Cade Cunningham, Anthony Edwards or Zion Williamson at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn on June 23, but rather a handful of potentially elite prospects including Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith and Paolo Banchero.

上面提到的三支球队——或者另一只球队，如果在5月17日的选秀中彩票球以某种方式排列（即他们中的一个获得状元签）的话——将在第一顺位选秀上做出艰难的抉择。

The three teams mentioned above -- or another team, should the lottery balls align in a certain way at the May 17 draft lottery -- will have a tough choice at No. 1.

如果在2022年NBA选秀中获得状元签，这三支球队中的每一个应该怎么做？如果他们跌出前三怎么办？ESPN的NBA选秀专家乔纳森·吉沃尼和迈克·施密茨在距离选秀只有两周的时候考虑了这些问题:

What should each member of this group of three do if they win the top pick in the 2022 NBA draft? What if they fall out of the top three? ESPN's NBA draft experts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz considered these questions with the draft lottery just two weeks away:

休斯顿火箭

Houston Rockets

获得第一顺位的概率：14%|前三顺位的概率：40%

No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-three odds: 40%

休斯顿火箭应该用第一顺位选择的球员：切特·霍姆格伦

Player the Rockets should select with the No. 1 pick: Chet Holmgren

火箭队肯定会对于选入霍姆格伦、史密斯或班切罗这些预期排在选秀前列的优秀的前场球员中的任何一位都十分兴奋。考虑到他们的长处，你可以说他们每个人都是理想的人选。（球队）对于史密斯的移动投射和外围防守的结合的需求就像对Banchero提供的创造投篮的能力，传球能力和得分能力的需要一样大。

The Rockets would surely be excited to add any of the elite frontcourt players projected at the top in Holmgren, Smith or Banchero. You could make an argument that each of them is an ideal fit considering their strengths. Smith's combination of dynamic shooting and perimeter defense is just as much of a need as the shot-creation, passing and shot-making Banchero offers.

而作为选秀中最有天赋的球员，也是最有潜力去影响火箭去年在NBA排名垫底，比上赛季任何一支球队的禁区失分都多的防守的球员，霍姆格伦备受我的青睐。

Holmgren gets the nod here in my view as the most talented player in the draft, as well as having the most potential to impact the Rockets' defense, which ranked last in the NBA last year, as no other team gave up more points in the paint last season.

霍姆格伦对于移动能力，臂展长度和时机把握的精英级别的结合，帮助他在平均每40分钟能拿到5.3次盖帽，能有助于立即缓解休斯顿在防守端的挣扎。

Holmgren's elite combination of mobility, length and timing, which helped him average 5.3 blocks per-40 minutes, should help alleviate Houston's defensive struggles immediately.

有着既能来开空间（39%三分命中率）又能在篮筐附近的终结(74% 两分命中率)的能力，霍姆格伦看起来也是与2021年选秀榜眼球员杰伦·格林搭配的理想人选。他突破防守的能力是极具破坏力的，而且他拥有巨大的，成为能创造机会的球员和传球手的潜力，这些比赛内容是我们在他被要求扮演更多辅助角色的冈萨加那里所看不到的。

Holmgren also looks like an ideal fit next to franchise cornerstone Jalen Green, the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft, with his ability to both space the floor (39% 3P%), and finish around the basket (74% 2P%). He's lethal busting out off the defensive glass, and holds significant potential as a shot-creator and passer himself, something we didn't see as much of at Gonzaga where he was asked to play more of a complementary role.

霍尔姆格伦也很适合休斯顿2021年首轮秀阿尔佩伦·申京，他是一名技巧丰富的进攻球员，为了能让效率达到最高，他迫切需要与正确的前场搭档配合。而他（霍姆格伦）和现任首发球员，火箭队的头号得分手，本身能力也很强的克里斯蒂安·伍德一起打球也不会有任何问题。

Holmgren is also a good fit alongside Houston's 2021 first-rounder Alperen Sengun, an extremely skilled offensive player who desperately needs to be paired with the right frontcourt partner to be most effective. He'd also have no issues playing alongside incumbent starter Christian Wood, the Rockets' leading scorer, who is very skilled in his own right.

最重要的是霍姆格伦能带来的的影响，他可以帮助火箭建立一个胜利的文化。他打出了无私的篮球风格，同时带给了球队非常缺乏的坚韧和无私的品质。

Most important is the impact Holmgren could make on helping the Rockets establish a winning culture. He plays a selfless style of basketball while bringing the type of toughness and unselfishness the team sorely lacks.

-吉沃尼

- Givony

如果休斯顿火箭掉出前三顺位，他们应该选择的球员：贾登·艾维或者基根·穆雷

Player the Rockets should select if they fall out of the top three: Jaden Ivey or Keegan Murray

尽管拥有NBA最差的战绩，火箭队仍然有60%的机会落到第四或第五的位置，这将是一个无比令人失望的结果，但仍然会让他们留在一个能选择有影响力的球员的位置。

Despite having the NBA's worst record, the Rockets still have a 60% chance of falling to the No. 4 or 5 slot, which would be an incredibly disappointing outcome, but would still leave them in position to draft an impact player.

在这种情况下，艾维和杰伦·格林在后场搭档的前景是火箭必须仔细研究的。通过他们出色的转换得分能力，强有力的击败对手的运球能力，以及轰炸篮筐的高光表现，他们会组成可以说是NBA最具爆发力的后场。虽然他们在波动的投篮命中率、不一致的决策和防守端的小毛病这些方面似乎如出一辙，但长期来看他们有相当大的共同成长空间，因为他们都只有20岁(生日相差四天)。尽管大个子是本届选秀的突出之处，但毫无疑问，能创造投篮机会的后卫是NBA最佳球队背后的引擎。对于休斯顿来说，在同一个后场有两个全明星级别的后卫的机会必须是有吸引力的，不管他们是否有些重叠。

The prospect of pairing Ivey with Jalen Green in the backcourt is one the Rockets will have to closely study in this scenario. They'd form, arguably, the most explosive backcourt in the NBA with their transition-scoring prowess, ability to powerfully beat opponents off the dribble and highlight-reel finishing operating above the rim. They also duplicate each other somewhat with their streaky shooting, inconsistent decision-making and defensive lapses, but would have quite a bit of room to grow together long-term, as both are just 20 years old (born four days apart). While big men are the strength of this draft, there's no question that shot-creating guards are the engines behind the best teams in the NBA. For Houston, a chance to have two all-star caliber guards in the same backcourt has to be attractive, duplicative or not.

穆雷也是火箭肯定会关注的人。作为上赛季大学联赛的最佳球员，他展现了一名即插即用、即将年满22岁的，拥有精英得分本能和全面的比赛能力的大前锋，赢回声望的最直接的途径。

Murray is also someone the Rockets will surely look at. As the best player in college basketball last season, he presents perhaps the most straightforward path back to respectability as a plug-and-play, soon-to-be 22-year-old power forward with elite scoring instincts and a complete all-around game.

在没有一个真正的控球后卫在他身边，而且是在球队经常没有球员能打出一个控球后卫能提供的表现的情况下，穆雷仍以非常高的效率(65%的投篮命中率)在平均每40分能得到29分(本届选秀中最好的)。他是一个多才多艺的防守者，在爱荷华州立大学的压迫防守中起带头作用，同时也展示了作为小球中锋的能力，这使他十分适配于休斯顿现有的后场球员。

Murray averaged a scorching 29 points per-40 (best in this draft class) on outstanding efficiency (65% true shooting) without a real point guard alongside him and often without all that many plays being called for him. He's a versatile defender who spearheaded Iowa's press while also showing the ability to operate as a small-ball center, making him a strong fit alongside Houston's existing frontcourt options.

-吉沃尼

- Givony

奥兰多魔术

Orlando Magic

获得第一顺位的概率：14%|前三顺位的概率：40%

No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-three odds: 40%

魔术应该用第一顺位选秀权选择的球员：切特·霍姆格伦

Player the Magic should select with the No. 1 pick: Chet Holmgren

虽然你可以为班切罗或史密斯争论，但霍姆格伦对魔术队来说是最有意义的，考虑到他既是篮筐保护者，又是空接的威胁和能够拉开空间的球员。再加上霍姆格伦是魔术后卫杰伦·萨格斯的高中和AAU队友，在比赛中也有文化契合和配合的熟悉度。

While you could make an argument for Banchero or Smith, Holmgren makes the most sense for the Magic at No. 1 given what he offers both as a rim protector, a lob threat and a floor spacer. Then add in that Holmgren was high school and AAU teammates with Magic guard Jalen Suggs, and there's a cultural fit and level of familiarity in play as well.

一方面，一个每回合得分在NBA排名第30位，有效命中率排名第28位的魔术队可以使用像班切罗这样的错位投篮创造者或者像史密斯这样的全能得分手。但是魔术队并不缺少萨格斯、马克尔·富尔茨和科尔·安东尼这样的创造机会的球员，加上霍姆格伦只会让魔术队的其他球员更加出色。霍姆格伦会给那些后卫——和弗朗茨·瓦格纳——更多的操作空间同时在挡拆中提供空中打击的威胁。

On one hand, a Magic team that ranked 30th in the NBA in points per possession and 28th in eFG% could use a mismatch shot creator like Banchero or a versatile scorer like Smith. But the Magic have no shortage of shot creators in Suggs, Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony, and adding Holmgren would only enhance the rest of Orlando's pieces. Holmgren would give those guards -- and Franz Wagner -- more space to operate while providing a vertical threat in pick-and-roll.

瓦格纳和霍姆格伦在4/5号位挡拆中会给对方的防守带来冲击，主教练贾马尔·莫斯利甚至可以将霍姆格伦作为有球挡拆中的持球者，给魔术的射手带来空位的机会，因为这位7英尺的球员拥有强大的控球能力和对比赛的感觉。霍姆格伦还能提供小温德尔·卡特所没有的那种篮筐保护，尽管这位23岁的魔术中锋有250磅的身板来对付那些，瘦弱的霍姆格伦十分难对付的体型魁梧的大个子。由于他的技术和敏捷性，霍姆格伦可以与萨格斯(6尺4)、瓦格纳(6尺10)、健康时的乔纳森·艾萨克(6尺11)和小文德尔·卡特(6尺10)一起在大个阵容中发挥作用，给魔术带来了管理层十分渴望的尺寸和多功能性。

Wagner and Holmgren in 4/5 pick-and-rolls would give opposing defenses fits, and head coach Jahmal Mosley could even use Holmgren as the primary handler in ball screens to spring free Magic shooters for open looks since the 7-footer boasts strong ball handling and feel for the game. Holmgren also offers the type of rim protection that Wendell Carter Jr. historically hasn't, while the 23-year-old Magic center has the 250-pound frame to handle the physical bigs the lean Holmgren figures to struggle with. Because of his skill set and agility, Holmgren can function in jumbo lineups alongside Suggs (6-4), Wagner (6-10), Jonathan Isaac when healthy (6-11) and Wendell Carter Jr. (6-10), giving the Magic the type of length and versatility its front office typically covets.

霍尔姆格伦提供了奥兰多魔术高层在2018年以第六顺位选择莫·班巴(下赛季后成为自由球员)时所希望的许多元素，只是前者对比赛的感觉更好，球技更精进，而且更加的整装待发。

Holmgren offers many elements that the Orlando brass hoped for when they selected Mo Bamba (a free agent after next season) 6th overall in 2018, but with a more advanced feel for the game, sharper ball skills and more revved up motor.

-施密茨

- Schmitz

如果魔术掉出前三顺位，他们应该选择的球员：保罗·班切罗或者谢顿·夏普

Player the Magic should select if they fall out of the top three: Paolo Banchero or Shaedon Sharpe

我会长时间地观察穆雷，当我们在看排在霍姆格伦后面的高顺位选秀的时候，我实际上认为他（穆雷）应该被加入到同班切罗和史密斯的讨论中。虽然魔术队刚刚选择了一个6尺10的多功能前锋瓦格纳，但因为他有能力命中3分，防守多个位置，并在不需要太多出手的情况下影响胜利，穆雷可以适应几乎任何阵容。

I'd be looking long and hard at Murray, who I actually think belongs in the conversation with Banchero and Smith when we look at the top of the draft behind Holmgren. Although the Magic just drafted a 6-10 combo forward in Wagner, Murray can fit in pretty much any lineup because of his ability to knock down spot 3s, defend multiple positions and impact winning without needing much volume.

穆雷可以说是选秀中能最快适应NBA的人，将这位爱荷华州的前锋纳入麾下将立即使奥兰多在攻防两端更具竞争力。很容易设想他会扮演和猛龙球星帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆相似的角色。他体型足够大，臂展足够长，借此他甚至可以站一段时间的小球5号位，这是他在爱荷华州立经常做的，这些比赛中他在场均31.5分钟内拿到1.9次盖帽。

Murray is arguably the most NBA-ready prospect in the draft, and adding the Iowa forward would instantly make Orlando more competitive on both ends of the floor. It's easy to envision him playing a similar role to what we see from Raptors star Pascal Siakam. He's big and long enough to even slide up to the small-ball 5 spot for stretches, which he did regularly at Iowa on his way to 1.9 blocks per game in 31.5 minutes.

穆雷是上赛季大学篮球赛中最有效率的得分手，场均得到23.5分，并有65%的真实命中率，你不需要将太多的进攻角色交给他来让他得分，这使他非常适合与奥兰多能创造机会的后卫并肩作战。穆雷、瓦格纳和健康的艾萨克将为魔术队提供三名可换防的前锋，他们可以在攻守两端扮演各种不同的角色。

Murray was the most efficient scorer in college basketball last season with 23.5 points per game on 65% true shooting, and you don't need to run much offense for him to get buckets, which makes him an excellent fit alongside Orlando's shot creating guards. Murray, Wagner and a healthy Isaac would give the Magic three switchable forwards who can fill a variety of different roles on both ends.

18岁的夏普是我强烈考虑的另一个对象。虽然他没有穆雷甚至贾登艾维那么有经验，但夏普有着可以和本届选秀中任何一个人媲美的上限，他拥有高达6尺6寸的身高，7尺0寸的臂展而且会是你在进攻端创造投篮的第一选择。夏普轻松得分的能力，臂展，爆发和跳跃能力将完美地补充球风强硬的萨格斯，而他的韧性和组织能力将减轻夏普在这些领域的压力。

18-year-old Sharpe is another prospect I'd strongly consider. Although he's not as experienced as Murray or even Jaden Ivey, Sharpe has as high of an upside as any prospect in the draft at 6-6 with a 7-0 wingspan and the shot creation you look for in a No. 1 option. Sharpe's effortless scoring ability, length, burst and leaping ability would perfectly complement the hard-playing Suggs, whose toughness and playmaking would take less pressure off of Sharpe in those areas.

如果魔术能保持耐心，并寻求更多的锋卫摇摆人的话，夏普就是最佳选择。如果他们感受到了来自于提升竞争力的压力，并且不担心起选中另一个多才多艺的前锋，我会倾向于穆雷。-施密茨

If the Magic can remain patient and are looking to take more of a swing, Sharpe is the play. If they feel the pressure to get more competitive and aren't worried about drafting another versatile forward, I'd lean Murray. - Schmitz

底特律活塞

Detroit Pistons

获得第一顺位的概率：14%|前三顺位的概率：40%

No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-three odds: 40%

魔术应该用第一顺位选秀权选择的球员：切特·霍姆格伦

Player the Pistons should select with the No. 1 pick: Chet Holmgren

霍姆格伦是在解决活塞一些最紧迫的问题的同时解放凯德·坎宁安最擅长领域的理想人选。在他们增加了马文·巴格利三世之前，底特律严重缺乏坎宁安的空接搭档，同时他们上赛季在篮下的命中率只有60.6%，在联盟中排名第28。霍姆格伦上赛季篮下投篮命中率高达80%，是NCAA篮下至少投篮100次的球员中遥遥领先的最好成绩。在最具潜力的三名球员中是最好的空中屏障。

Holmgren is the ideal prospect to unlock the best parts of Cade Cunningham while addressing some of the Pistons' most pressing issues. Until they added Marvin Bagley III, Detroit sorely lacked a lob catcher for Cunningham, as they shot just 60.6% at the rim last season, 28th in the league. Holmgren shot 80% at the rim last season, far and away the best mark in the NCAA among players to take at least 100 shots at the rim. He's the best vertical spacer of the potential top-3 picks.

活塞在非底角三分命中率方面以32.1%排在NBA第30位，在转换三分的频率上排在第28位。史密斯可以立即解决这一需求，但他不能像在菜鸟赛季三分球命中率就有39%的霍姆格伦那样提供空接配合和护筐。

The Pistons also ranked 30th in the NBA in non-corner 3 accuracy at 32.1%, and 28th in frequency on above the break 3s. Smith addresses this need immediately, but he doesn't offer the lob-catching AND rim protection as Holmgren, who shot 39% from beyond the arc as a freshman.

增加一个像霍姆格伦这样的挡拆威胁将会给坎宁安提供必要的空间，利用这些空间，他能靠他的身材，力量和技术，让他比他的新秀赛季更有效地在三分线内得分。在进攻方面，霍姆格伦也是对以赛亚·斯图尔特和巴格利三世的完美补充，同时给了萨迪克·贝更多的中距离单打的空间，而后者在那个位置十分高效。

Adding a pick-and-pop threat like Holmgren will give Cunningham the necessary space to use his size, strength and skill level to score more efficiently inside the arc than he did as a rookie. Offensively, Holmgren also perfectly complements both Isaiah Stewart and Bagley III, while giving Saddiq Bey more space for mid-post isolations, where he's really effective.

史密斯在攻守端都很适合，因为他在职业生涯早期有着出色的防守和发挥更大作用的能力。虽然增加一个6尺10寸，250磅的，像班切罗这样的进攻天才，也会让活塞变得出奇的的有活力，但是他和坎宁安在一起就不那么自然了。班切罗仍在提高他的无球能力，而他球场上的大部分成功来自于自己创造的投篮。

Smith is a strong fit on both ends given his stellar defense and ability to function as more of a piece early on in his career. While adding a 6-10, 250-pound offensive talent like Banchero would make the Pistons incredibly dynamic, he isn't quite as natural of a fit alongside Cunningham. Banchero is still improving his ability to play off the catch, with much of his success coming from self-created shots.

最重要的是，活塞非常缺少一个真正的护筐手，也没有真正的盖帽手。而如果霍姆格伦和斯图尔特这样的大个子一起打球，他就不必担心乔尔·恩比德这样的NBA中的彪形大汉了。

On top of all that, the Pistons are sorely missing a true rim protector, and don't have any real shot blockers. Holmgren wouldn't have to worry about checking the NBA's bruisers like Joel Embiid if he's playing alongside a physical big like Stewart.`

因此，虽然史密斯是坎宁安和贝的绝佳搭档，并且增加像班切罗这样的进攻人才将减轻坎宁安的压力，使活塞更加令人兴奋，但霍姆格伦填补了大多数漏洞，可以作为底特律明星控卫的金牌辅助。

So while Smith is an excellent fit alongside Cunningham and Bey, and adding an offensive talent like Banchero would take pressure off Cunningham and make the Pistons even more exciting, Holmgren plugs the most holes and can function as a complement to Detroit's star point guard.

-施密茨

- Schmitz

如果活塞掉出前三顺位，他们应该选择的球员：贾登·艾维

Player the Pistons should select if they fall out of the top three: Jaden Ivey

除了前三名之外，没有哪个球员能像艾维那样适配于坎宁安。他的全场的速度，瞬间爆发力和强大的弹跳力与坎宁安更有条不紊的球风完美契合。想想2009年至2012年俄克拉荷马城的詹姆斯·哈登和拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克。活塞总经理特洛伊·韦弗长期以来一直因推动（雷霆）在2008年选秀中优先选择威斯布鲁克而受到好评，我不得不想象，他看到了前加州大学洛杉矶分校后卫和艾维之间的一些相似之处-至少在身体条件和运动能力方面。

No player projected outside the top 3 complements Cunningham quite like Ivey. His open-court speed, sudden burst and tremendous leaping ability meshes perfectly with Cunningham's more methodical pace. Think James Harden and Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City from 2009 to 2012. Pistons general manager Troy Weaver has long been credited for pushing for Westbrook leading up to the 2008 draft, and I'd have to imagine he sees some similarities -- at least physically and athletically -- between the former UCLA guard and Ivey.

坎宁安让防守者昏昏欲睡，并像哈登一样用技巧和假动作击败他们，而艾维可以提供在常规赛中非常危险的好似巅峰威斯布鲁克的那种速度。虽然进攻效率十分高，但根据Kenpom.com的数据，普渡的比赛节奏仅排名第237位，而艾维在眨眼之间攻守转换的能力在空间更大的NBA比赛中更能得到苏醒。

Cunningham rocks defenders to sleep and beats them with skill and deception like Harden, while Ivey can offer the type of peak-Westbrook speed in transition that's so dangerous in the regular season. Although an incredibly efficient offense, Purdue ranked 237th in pace according to Kenpom.com, and Ivey's ability to change ends in the blink of an eye figures to come to life even more in the wide-open NBA game.

作为一个外线射手，艾维也有了很大的提高，他已经证明了他有能力在多后卫阵容中出自己的一份力，就像他在普渡大学做的那样。有了坎宁安作为主要的控球者和场上领袖，艾维可以在职业生涯早期坚持发挥自己的长处，而不是被推到首席后卫或领导角色，在这两个领域他仍然有相当大的提升空间。简而言之，艾维会给活塞注入激情，这支球队除了哈米杜·迪亚洛之外，并没有什么能在高空作业的球员。而坎宁安、贝和艾维组成的年轻核心组合会让活塞立即成为全联盟瞩目的热门球队。

Ivey has also greatly improved as a perimeter shooter, and he's proven capable of adding value in multi-guard lineups like he did at Purdue. With Cunningham as the primary ball handler and on-court leader, Ivey can stick to his strengths early in his career while not being thrust into a lead guard or leadership role, which are both areas he still has considerable room to improve. Simply put, Ivey would give the Pistons an injection of excitement on a team that isn't exactly loaded with high-flyers other than Hamidou Diallo. A young core of Cunningham, Bey and Ivey immediately makes the Pistons a League Pass favorite.

-施密茨

- Schmitz

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