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搜我想看一篇有点意思的访谈，图卢兹主席谈转会策略与数据分析
图卢兹现在也算是米兰的兄弟队了，这个访谈中也可以看出些红鸟的理念和球队的发展方向。
Comolli, the president of Toulouse who are a club owned by RedBird, spoke to L’Equipe about the methods behind their promotion back to the top flight, which gives an insight into what Milan fans can perhaps expect.
Comoli，图卢兹主席在队报的访谈里给出了他们如何取得升级的一些理念，米兰球迷也可以从中这里看出本队一些可能的前景。以下为访谈内容：
“We analyse 70 leagues, but with the promotion we will have more investment margin. Even if we will not be able to buy Premier League or Bundesliga players, we have for example detailed information on players up to the English fourth division and German third division,” he revealed.
我们分析了70个联赛，升级后会有更多的投入。即使现在我们还无法负担英超或德甲的球员，但我们拥有包括英格兰第四级联赛以上和德国第三级联赛以上的非常详细的球员资料。
We have more than 40 thousand players in the archive so we know everything. We buy data, but we process it with our own algorithms to make it into exclusive statistics. RedBird? I am associated with them because we all wanted to work with this method.
我们有超过4万名球员的数据库，一切尽在掌握。我们会购买数据，但会通过自己的算法分析来处理这些数据让他们为我所用。红鸟和我们一样想靠这个方法来进行工作。
“RedBird bought a well known data analytics company in the US: Zelus. And from them there are nine analysts who work exclusively for Toulouse. Redbird has no speculative will. We want to break away from the model of player trading. But then there is also reality.
红鸟在美国买了一家有名的数据分析公司：Zelus。在那里一共有9名分析员专门为图卢兹工作。红鸟并没有投机的想法。我们一起希望能打破目前球员转会的模式，但也要考虑现实情况。
“If a player becomes performing we will try to keep him but up to a certain point. The first criterion is of course quality. But we seldom take players over 25 and then push the study very deep.
如果一名球员表现出色那我们尽力留住他，但不会不计成本。最重要的当然是实力，但我们很少会买入25岁以上的球员，并且会继续深入这条路线。
“We recently met a striker and we showed him exactly his playing zones by percentages of minutes, all his shots over the last two seasons. And not with videos, but with analytics. All in three minutes. Gamers like it, that’s one more argument to convince them. I think we will close many purchases already before June 30th.”
我们最近见了一名前锋并给他展示了他在过去2个赛季里所有的比赛中，场上的活动区域的占比和所有的射门情况。不需要任何的视频，只是数据分析，全部在3分钟内展示完毕。球员喜欢这个，这也可以帮助我们来说服球员。我认为我们会在6月30号前完成很多笔购入。
这些回复亮了
elfwolf楼主
所谓魔球理论，说到底就是重视数据，控制成本发掘新人，关注年轻人，除了少数球队外，大部分球队其实都是这个理念。与之相对的，其实是当初加秃一度放弃球探系统，完全靠经纪人推荐和个人喜好来签人。所以魔球实际就是把过去那套完全以人的主观好恶来主导转会，改为以数据为基础，结合实际负责人的判断来进行转会。而能否成功，实际取决于你的数据库大小，你的算法先进性，以及你的负责人的水平。是否适用于顶级球队，取决于你如何定义顶级球队了。比如米兰这个赛季的冠军我觉得就是这套东西最好的例子。
elfwolf楼主
正好我可以借你这个回帖来说一下我一直很想说的一点，就是魔球理论是不是等于控制成本和严格工资帽。我觉得很多人在这上面是有误区的。所谓魔球理论，追本溯源就是moneyball这本书提出来的，那么这本书里的moneyball到底讲的是什么呢？我们可以来看一下wiki上的解释：https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MoneyballBefore sabermetrics was introduced to baseball, teams were dependent on the skills of their scouts to find and evaluate players. Scouts are experienced in the sport, usually having been players or coaches.[1] The book argues that the Oakland A's' front office took advantage of more analytical gauges of player performance to field a team that could outsmart and better compete against richer competitors in Major League Baseball (MLB).Rigorous statistical analysis had demonstrated that on-base percentage and slugging percentage are better indicators of offensive success, and the A's became convinced that these qualities were cheaper to obtain on the open market than more historically valued qualities such as running speed and defense. These observations often flew in the face of conventional baseball wisdom and the beliefs of many baseball scouts and executives.简单来说，就是在数据分析引入之前，球队的引援非常依赖球探的经验和个人的好恶。而很多球探都是前球员教练，他们的经验又是由前代球员教练球探言传身教下来的。而moneyball里讲的，就是如何通过更深入的分析球员的数据和表现，在预算有限的情况下来组成一支去抗衡那些预算更充裕的球队。其中很重要的一点，里面提到有几项数据，on-base percentag， slugging percentage之前并不为人所看重，因此拥有这些特点的球员身价相比那些拥有传统上更为人看重的数据running speed and defense的球员的身价要便宜很多。而这些恰好是之前那些依靠经验和传统的球探没有发现，却被MoneyBall理论所重视并以此来挑选球员组建球队。所以说，魔球本质上说的是更优秀的数据分析与发掘人才组建球队的方法。并不等同于控制成本，更不是工资帽和究极性价比。