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原文链接：https://reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/vggdp7/i_have_some_concerns_about_paolo/

I have some concerns about Paolo

我对班切罗有点担心。

TLDR: How can you be far and away the best scorer in the draft if you were less efficient and scored less than most of the top 10, while also being in the most favourable situation?

太长了不想看直接要结论：

如果你队友最好，但是效率又最低，你怎么说自己是选秀里最好的得分手呢？

Of the top 3 picks, Paolo had pretty clearly the best situation. 5 future NBA-player teammates, 3 of which are likely lottery picks. Arguably the best shooter and best center in the draft.

在三大内线中班切罗的队友是最好的，有5个队友都是未来的NBA球员，有三个都是预测乐透签，甚至可以说他的队友是大学里最强的投射和中锋。

Duke also pretty clearly had the best spacing out of Gonzaga, Auburn and Duke.

杜克在三大所在大学里空间最好（杜克，奥本，刚薩加）

Team 3P% without the player on the floor (percentiles relative to D1 teams)

今年三大不在场上时其他球员的投射数据：

•Duke w/o Paolo: 39.9% from 3 (99th percentile)

•Gonzaga w/o Chet: 35.3% from 3 (79th percentile)

•Auburn w/o Jabari: 30.3% from 3 (11th percentile)

Paolo is also the most physically developed of the 3 at 6’10 250lbs (which also suggests he has less room to grow physically)

保罗同时也是三人中身体成熟度最高的，6尺10寸，250磅（这意味着进NBA后身体方面上升空间最小）

However despite these advantages, Paolo was the least efficient of any of the top 6 NCAA guys and scored the fewest points per 36.

（但是尽管具有身体上的优势，班切罗在预测前6的里面得分效率是最低的，同时每36分钟的得分也最低）

| PTS per 36 | TS% | USG%

Keegan | 26.5 | 63.8 | 29.7

Jabari | 21.2 | 57 | 27.6

Ivey | 19.8 | 57.9 | 28.7

Mathurin | 19.6 | 57.6 | 25.1

Chet | 18.9 | 69.1 | 21.6

Paolo | 18.8 | 55.7 | 27.5

Considering the lion share of his sales pitch is him being this dominant scorer, this alarms me. Paolo also had a pretty big drop-off in efficiency against top 50 teams of these 6, and was the least efficient by a large margin.

考虑到班切罗用来宣传的最大优点就是他得分上的统治力，这数据让我担心。同时在面对全美前50的球队时，班切罗效率下降明显，同时也是选秀预测前6中效率最低的。

vs top 50 | TS%

Chet | 60.6

Mathurin | 58.8

Jabari | 57.5

Ivey | 57.3

Keegan | 56.7

Paolo | 52.7

In the NBA, 52.7 TS% would be around the 25th percentile for PFs according to dunksandthrees, which is not ideal. I think it is unlikely that Paolo walks into the NBA and is more efficient than he was against college kids. People handwave his efficiency saying Tatum and Ingram weren’t that efficient in college - sure but 1) they didn’t drop off vs better comp and 2) they were 6’8-6’9 200lbs. They were going to get stronger and bigger, and Paolo is already big and strong and couldn’t be any more efficient for it.

如果在NBA，真实命中率52.7%，对于大前锋位置的球员，效率就要排在底层25%的部分了，这不理想。作者认为班切罗进入NBA后面对NBA防守不可能立即提高效率。有人用塔图姆和英格拉姆类比班切罗。他们的区别是：塔图姆和英格拉姆在面对更好的ncaa球队时效率并没有下降，且塔图姆和英格拉姆大学期间身体成熟度不高，，只有6尺8到6尺9，200磅左右，他们进入NBA都成功增重了。班切罗身体上的进步空间制约了他这方面的进步。

Paolo also had a much higher rate of assisted shots compared to Tatum and Ingram (and similar to Jabari, despite the narrative of Paolo being a self-creation monster and Jabari being a catch and shoot role player)

同时与塔图姆，英格拉姆，和今年的贾巴里史密斯相比，班切罗的得分被助攻率很高，宣传的自主得分能力强从数据上并没有体现出来，跟所谓的投射男史密斯差不多。

% FGA ast’d | rim | mid | 3P

Paolo | 43 | 22 | 87

Tatum | 29 | 9 | 88

Ingram | 17 | 17 | 95

Jabari | 42 | 30 | 73

His unassisted rim FG% is identical to Tatum and Ingram (54.4%), despite being so much larger and stronger - that doesn’t indicate great finishing touch. Paolo especially struggles finishing with his left. When defenders get bigger and stronger, it may become even more apparent.

班切罗尽管身体更强壮，但是非助攻情况下命中率跟大学里的塔图姆和英格拉姆差不多，终结手段堪忧。尤其是左手终结拉胯，特别是面对强壮的防守者的时候。

For being 6’10 250lbs, Paolo had a poor FT rate and poor rebounding rate. His close physical comps of top picks being Griffin (6’10 248) and Randle (6’9 250) doubled his free throw rate in college and were way better rebounders. Jabari got to the line more than Paolo and rebounded better despite not being as physically developed. When Jabari adds strength and improves his handle even a little bit, the gap will only widen.

作为6尺10寸250磅的内线，班切罗创造罚球比率不高，篮板率更是很差。与他身体条件类似的高位秀，格里芬和兰德尔，在大学期间的篮板率都是他的两倍。同时对比贾巴里史密斯，史密斯的罚球比率和篮板率都比班切罗高，尽管身体成熟度不如班切罗。当史密斯进入NBA增加身体强度后这个差距更会拉大。

Not a great perimeter or interior defender. Decent enough on-ball but was terrible off-ball. Duke was horrible defensively with him at the 5, and he doesn’t seem quick enough to guard 3s.

班切罗的外线和内线防守都不是精英级。有球防守还行，无球防守非常拉胯。杜克在他打小球5号位时防守十分糟糕，班切罗的速度让他防不了三号位。

IMO Paolo has the lowest floor of the top 3 because he’s the worst off-ball on offense out of the 3. In a league where the bar to have the ball in your hands on a half-decent team is extremely high, inability to be effective without it means the conversation around a player can become ‘he’d be a decent 6th man on a good team’ very fast. It’s why no-one wants Julius Randle and why Jabari Parker is shuttling around rosters. Even his on-ball game is the least NBA friendly of the 3, revolving around post ups and midrange shots. His 3P% and FT% aren’t great, and he was a bad shooter in HS too. His shot chart is very revealing, with his shooting 62% in the corners masking the fact he shot 29% from NBAish range. Most of his misses are short as well, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him struggle to adjust to the NBA line. Typically guys who develop their shot at the next level either shoot well from 3 or from FT in college - Tatum shot 85% from the line and Ingram shot 41% from 3. The list of guys who were below average at both and became elite shot makers in the NBA is pretty short. This list of contender-quality no 1 options that aren’t elite shot makers is extremely short.

作者认为班切罗是三大里地板最低的。因为班切罗进攻需要球权，无球进攻三人中最差。NBA对持球进攻者的要求非常高，如果效率不高的话，很快你就会被人开始讨论只能打球队砍分第六人。这就是为什么现在没人要兰德尔，而贾巴里史密斯行情这么好。班切罗的持球技术在目前的NBA也是最不合潮流的，主要是篮下背打和中投。班切罗的三分和罚球命中率都不理想，同时他在高中的投射命中率也不高。当你仔细看班切罗的投射热图，班切罗在底角命中率高达62%，在NBA三分线命中率仅29%。同时大多数班切罗投丢的球都投短了，所以作者认为班切罗进NBA投射会很挣扎。

If Paolo did go no 1, he’d be the 2nd most inefficient player taken no 1 overall since at least 1990 (probably longer), following only Anthony Edwards who was on a terrible Georgia team which is in stark contrast to Paolo’s stacked Duke team. If Paolo doesn’t hit he becomes a player very hard to build around and one that feels like it caps the ceiling of your team, because his game requires the ball to go through him. I don’t think there is much evidence that Paolo is going to be this nuclear scorer in the NBA, and if he isn’t I think it will be a lot harder for him to outweigh his defensive and off-ball deficiencies. In contrast Jabari and Chet can easily scale down to lower usage roles with their shooting and defence.

假如班切罗被状元签选中，他就会成为90年以来效率第二低的状元签。之前效率最低的是森林狼的爱德华兹。但是爱德华兹在大学里的球队是支烂队，身边空间完全无法与今年的杜克相比。如果班切罗没有变成超巨的话，他很可能成为兰德尔那种不上不下球队很难在你身边建队的球员。因为班切罗需要大量球权。作者认为现有证据并不能证明班切罗未来会成为NBA的超级得分手，而他防守上和无球进攻端的弊端让围绕他建队变的困难重重。相比之下，贾巴里史密斯和切特就算没有成为头号得分选择，也可以通过防守和投射成为有价值的重要球员。