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Wizards acquiring Barton, Morris from Nuggets

Wizards get:

Will Barton

Monte Morris

Nuggets get:

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Ish Smith

Denver Nuggets: C-

More than anything -- even the luxury tax implications, though we'll get to them -- this deal looks like the Nuggets are betting on the health of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., both of whom are slated to return from long-term injuries next season.

With this trade, Denver goes from having a backup point guard in Morris capable of starting (he started 74 of his 75 games played last season with Murray sidelined following ACL surgery) and a combo wing in Barton capable of sliding to small forward to replace Porter to a depth chart that looks awfully thin at both positions.

If Murray and Porter are the players we saw in 2020-21, adding Caldwell-Pope alongside them could strengthen the Nuggets' best five-man lineup. If they miss extended periods, Denver is less equipped to replace them, pending additional moves this summer.

On the positive side, Caldwell-Pope looks like a great fit with the Nuggets as the new version of what Gary Harris once was in Denver. He's developed the "3" part of the 3-and-D equation, hitting 39.5% of his 3-pointers over the past three seasons at moderate volume (5.3 attempts per game in 2021-22).

Caldwell-Pope is also a capable on-ball defender, allowing the Nuggets to cross-match him and Murray, putting Caldwell-Pope on the better opposing guard. Using Second Spectrum tracking data and my analysis of lineup data, 29% of Caldwell-Pope's individual matchups last season were against players who primarily saw action at point guard, as compared to 18% for Barton.

Although Barton and Caldwell-Pope have similar size (Barton is listed an inch taller but 23 pounds lighter), Barton has been much more likely to play small forward over the course of his career. Lineups with Caldwell-Pope at small forward will be a bit small to match the West's bigger combo forwards, taking away a bit of lineup versatility for coach Michael Malone.

Additionally, Denver undoubtedly downgraded in the point guard half of this trade, but this could be a precursor to adding another this summer. The Nuggets have been linked to Vasilije Micic, the MVP of the last two EuroLeague final fours, whose NBA rights are held by the Oklahoma City Thunder. If so, however, that means paying $4.7 million to the well-traveled Smith (who could suit up for his record 13th NBA franchise if he sticks with the Nuggets) as a third point guard.

All of which brings us to the financial element. After completing this trade, Denver begins free agency right at the projected luxury tax line by virtue of saving nearly $5 million in salary on the heels of the recent trade shedding JaMychal Green's $8.2 million.

Because the Nuggets have just 11 players under contract, including first-round picks Christian Braun and Peyton Watson, they'll surely go into the tax to start the season by filling out the roster. Given what's at stake for Denver with two-time reigning MVP Nikola Jokic in his prime, I hope the Nuggets plan to reinvest some of the savings by either using the projected $6.4 million taxpayer midlevel exception or their trade exception (which will grow to Morris' $9.1 million salary if they take in Smith using the slightly smaller exception generated in the Green trade) to add forward depth.

Behind Porter, whose history of back injuries makes his return from surgery more complicated than Murray's more straightforward ACL rehab, Denver has only Watson, the 30th pick who played sparingly in his lone season at UCLA. Aaron Gordon can slide to small forward as well, but the Nuggets don't have enough power forward depth to cover that spot without any contributions from Gordon.

Until we see what Denver has in store in free agency, it's tough to know exactly what to make of this trade. Still, shedding salary and not getting much value in return for Morris makes this look like a losing move.

Washington Wizards: A

From the Wizards' perspective, this move continues to spin the Russell Westbrook trade forward in ways that enhance the team's depth. Caldwell-Pope, who came from the Lakers as part of the return for Westbrook, has now turned into a pair of potential starters for Washington.

Given Kyle Kuzma came directly from the Lakers, and Kristaps Porzingis was acquired in part for a player (Spencer Dinwiddie) added via sign-and-trade expansion of the Westbrook deal, you can trace four-fifths of the Wizards' likely starting five to that transaction.

Morris in particular fills a need the Wizards have had since trading Westbrook. Dinwiddie didn't prove a fit at point guard next to Bradley Beal, but Morris' skill set should better complement Beal -- under the assumption Beal will re-sign with Washington in free agency.

Because of Morris' strong 3-point shooting (39.5% last season, right at his career mark), he doesn't need the ball in his hands when Beal is operating with it yet can take ballhandling and distribution duties off Beal's plate. Although he's proven a capable starting point guard, the two remaining years on Morris' contract ($9.1 million this season, $9.8 million in 2023-24) pay him more like a backup, which is a boon for the Wizards.

Meanwhile, Barton is a more natural fit at small forward next to Beal. My biggest concern from Washington's standpoint is that Barton likes to operate on the ball more than Caldwell-Pope, which could be difficult to manage with Beal and power forward Kyle Kuzma already looking for those touches. Still, Barton showed in Denver he could operate in a role with moderate usage, and he too is an off-ball threat, having hit 2.2 3-pointers per game at an above-average clip last season.

Financially, the Wizards could add the extra salary in this trade without issue. Presuming Beal signs on starting at his maximum salary (a projected $42.7 million), Washington will still be more than $10 million below the estimated luxury tax line with 12 players under contract. The Wizards could still use the bulk of their non-taxpayer midlevel exception to add another ball handler behind Morris.

As was the case with the Westbrook trade, this one doesn't necessarily make Washington a playoff team. However, it's a sensible deal that upgrades the Wizards in the short term without costing them anything down the road -- a no-brainer from their standpoint.