2021 NBA Redraft: Does Evan Mobley go first overall this time?

by josh cornelissen

1)EVAN MOBLEY

Big, Detroit Pistons

Evan Mobley rising from third in the draft to first is partially a nod to how incredible he has been, and partially a result of Cade Cunningham looking a bit less than the surefire All-Star he was thought to be. Cunningham’s perimeter creation and shooting are more valuable than Mobley’s defense if both are at elite levels, but Cunningham was yet to put it together when he went down for the season with an injury.

A team drafting Evan Mobley (and, of course, the Cleveland Cavaliers in our normal timeline) doesn’t have to bank on Mobley’s upside; they can rely on what he has already proven. He is right now one of the 20 best defenders in the NBA, and perhaps even higher on the list than that. His combination of length, fluidity, athleticism and instincts on defense are unlike anyone else in the league. He’s the heir apparent to Anthony Davis and Kevin Garnett.

Mobley has been asked to do less on offense than other top prospects because he plays on a really good team with two All-Star-level guards. His shot attempts per game are essentially the same as last year (12.0 last season, 11.9 this year) but his scoring has increased because of improved efficiency. He is a better offensive player than a year ago, even if he isn’t called upon to dominate the ball.

Drafting Evan Mobley would give the Detroit Pistons a top-notch rim protector, someone around whom the rest of the defense can be built. His presence likely influences their trade for Jalen Duren this past year, but they also love to collect bigs so it’s hard to say. Regardless, Mobley has been the best player in this draft class and deserves to go No. 1 overall.

1)埃文·莫布利 中锋，底特律活塞队

埃文·莫布里从选秀第三顺位上升到第一顺位，部分是因为他的表现令人难以置信，部分是因为凯德·坎宁安看起来比他被认为是必胜的全明星球员要差一些。如果坎宁安的外线创造能力和投篮能力比莫布里的防守更有价值，如果两者都处于精英水平的话，但坎宁安在因伤缺席本赛季时还没有把这两者结合起来。 一支选择了埃文·莫布里的球队（当然，还有我们正常时间线中的克利夫兰骑士队）不必指望莫布里的优势；他们可以信赖他已经证明的东西。他现在是 NBA 20 名最佳防守者之一，甚至可能比这个排名还要高。他的长度、流动性、运动能力和防守本能的结合与联盟中的其他人不同。他是安东尼·戴维斯和凯文·加内特的法定继承人。 莫布里被要求在进攻上比其他顶级新秀少做一些事情，因为他在一支拥有两名全明星级别后卫的优秀球队中打球。他的场均出手次数与去年基本相同（上赛季12.0次，今年11.9次），但由于效率提高，他的得分有所增加。与一年前相比，他是一名更好的进攻球员，即使他没有被要求主宰球权。 选中埃文·莫布里将为底特律活塞队提供一名一流的篮筐保护者，其余的防守都可以围绕他建立。他的存在可能会影响他们去年对贾伦·杜伦的交易，但他们也喜欢收集大个子，所以很难说。无论如何，莫布里一直是本次选秀中最好的球员，值得成为第一顺位。

2)FRANZ WAGNER

Forward, Houston Rockets

Franz Wagner makes a massive leap in this redraft, from his original spot at eight all the way up to second. Wagner has built on his game in nearly every way, improving as a scorer, playmaker and shooter this season. He is averaging 18.8 points per game, second only to Jalen Green among this class this season (plus Cade Cunningham if he were healthy enough to qualify). The Orlando Magic have amassed an elite frontcourt and Wagner has been right there with rookie Paolo Banchero as their best player.

The Houston Rockets originally drafted Jalen Green, and while he has shown plenty of scoring pop he is still an inefficient offensive player and a trainwreck on defense. Wagner is not Scottie Pippen (or Scottie Barnes) out there, but he is a solid defender and has been a much better all-around player thus far. Still just 21 years old, he has plenty of room to grow. The Rockets could build around Wagner and their picks later in this redraft and have a much more balanced group of players.

2）弗朗茨·瓦格纳 前锋，休斯顿火箭队

弗兰茨·瓦格纳在这次重新选秀中取得了巨大的飞跃，从最初的第八名一路上升到第二名。瓦格纳几乎在各个方面都增强了自己的比赛能力，本赛季在得分手、组织核心和射手方面都取得了进步。他场均得到 18.8 分，在本赛季的同级别中仅次于杰伦·格林（加上凯德·坎宁安，如果他身体健康有资格的话）。奥兰多魔术队已经聚集了一支精英前场，瓦格纳就在那里，新秀保罗·班切罗是他们最好的球员。 休斯敦火箭队最初选中了贾伦·格林，尽管他表现出了足够的得分能力，但他仍然是一名进攻效率低下的球员，防守方面也很糟糕。瓦格纳不是斯科蒂·皮蓬（或斯科蒂·巴恩斯），但他是一名可靠的防守者，并且迄今为止是一名更好的全能球员。他才21岁，还有很大的成长空间。火箭队可以在这次重新选秀中围绕瓦格纳和他们的选秀权进行建设，并拥有一支更加平衡的球员队伍。

3)CADE CUNNINGHAM

Point Forward, Cleveland Cavaliers

Cade Cunningham doesn’t fall far in our redraft, swapping places with Evan Mobley to land at No. 3 with the Cleveland Cavaliers. While the season lost to injury is not a boon for his development, it shouldn’t have a lasting effect on him either. Cade’s poor shooting to start his career — 30.9 percent from 3-point range, just 47.1 percent from 2 — is a concern, but his free-throw shooting is strong and he still projects as a strong shooter.

Cunningham is an excellent passer and at 6’6″ has the size to cause matchup issues. He is not only capable defensively but plays hard on that end, an unexpected boon in a player with his offensive role. Here in this redraft, the Cavaliers could pair Cade with Darius Garland, giving them two high-level on-ball creators who can both shoot.

3）凯德·坎宁安 前锋，克利夫兰骑士队

凯德·坎宁安在我们的重新选秀中并没有落下太远，他与埃文·莫布里交换了位置，在克利夫兰骑士队排名第三。虽然因伤缺席的赛季对他的发展来说并不是一件好事，但也不会对他产生持久的影响。凯德职业生涯之初的投篮命中率很差——三分球命中率为30.9%，二分命中率仅为47.1%——令人担忧，但他的罚球命中率很强，而且仍然是一名强大的射手。 坎宁安是一位出色的传球手，身高 6 英尺 6 英寸，身材足以引起对位问题。他不仅防守能力强，而且在防守端也很努力，这对于一名进攻型球员来说是一个意想不到的好处。在这次重新选秀中，骑士队可以将凯德与达柳斯·加兰配对，为他们提供两位都能投篮的高水平控球创造者。

4)SCOTTIE BARNES

Forward, Toronto Raptors

Last year’s Rookie of the Year has had a more difficult second season, which could be said for any of his Toronto Raptors teammates as the entire roster has taken a step back this year. With that being said, he is still averaging 15.4 points per game and 35.3 minutes per game on a team with a positive point differential; the struggle has been more against expectations than the revelation of a bad player.

The Toronto Raptors go right back to the well here and take Barnes in our redraft. He is still long, strong and versatile defensively; he has improved as a passer and as an interior scorer. His jumper has regressed, and shooting continues to be the greatest concern for him (30.2 percent from 3 this year) but he brings a lot of value to the table and fits what the Raptors like in a prospect.

4）斯科蒂·巴恩斯 前锋，多伦多猛龙队

去年的年度最佳新秀经历了一个更加困难的第二个赛季，这对他的多伦多猛龙队队友来说都是如此，因为今年整个阵容都后退了一步。话虽如此，他仍然在一支拥有正分差的球队中场均上场 35.3 分钟，得到 15.4 分；这场斗争更多的是违背预期，而不是揭露一个糟糕的球员。 多伦多猛龙队直接回到这里，并在我们的重新选秀中选择了巴恩斯。他仍然身材高大、强壮、防守多才多艺；他作为传球手和内线得分手都有了进步。他的跳投有所退步，投篮命中率仍然是他最关心的问题（今年三分球命中率为 30.2%），但他为球队带来了很大的价值，并且符合猛龙队所喜欢的前景。

5)JALEN GREEN

Shooting Guard, Orlando Magic

There is a case for Jalen Green to land as high as fourth in a ranking of the 2021 draftees, or to fall to the bottom of the lottery. The good? He is an explosive scorer, with the ability to get hot at any moment and the potential to develop into a player who can essentially ignore defense and get his shot up against anyone. His 21.5 points per game this season leads the class by far.

The bad? He is amassing those point totals playing for the closest thing the NBA has to the Washington Generals. He is shooting just 41.1 percent from the field and 33.6 percent from 3-point range. Despite having the ball in his hands on a largely spaced-out floor, Green is averaging just 3.9 assists versus 2.8 turnovers. He is a turnstile on defense, has a myriad of bad habits and the Rockets are a trainwreck this year yet again.

Still, the upside is very real, and on-ball shot creation is the rarest skill in the league. The Orlando Magic take the swing here, hoping to give Green a strong environment to grow in and mold him into a 1B kind of star player on the wing. If Green doesn’t start to change his profile from “inefficient chucker” to “dangerous score-first guard” then he will plummet down this redraft a year from now.

5）杰伦·格林 得分后卫，奥兰多魔术队

杰伦·格林有可能在 2021 年选秀顺位排名中升至第四位，或者跌至乐透区垫底。好的？他是一名爆发力得分手，有能力随时变得火热，并且有潜力发展成为一名基本上可以无视防守并在对抗任何人时投篮的球员。本赛季他场均得到21.5分，遥遥领先全班。 坏处？他正在为 NBA 中最接近华盛顿将军队的球队积累这些总得分。他的投篮命中率仅为 41.1%，三分命中率为 33.6%。尽管格林在空间很大的场地上持球，但他场均只有 3.9 次助攻和 2.8 次失误。他在防守上是个旋转门，有无数的坏习惯，火箭队今年再次陷入困境。 尽管如此，它的优势还是非常真实的，而且创造持球投篮机会是联盟中最稀有的技能。奥兰多魔术队在此占据一席之地，希望能够给格林一个良好的成长环境，将他塑造成1B类侧翼明星球员。如果格林不开始将自己的形象从“低效的傻瓜”转变为“危险的得分第一后卫”，那么一年后他将在这次重新选秀中一落千丈。

6)ALPEREN SENGUN

Center, Oklahoma City Thunder

We just covered the most highly-drafted of the Houston Rockets’ four first-round picks in 2021, and now we come to their second back-to-back. Alperen Sengun has been a better player than Jalen Green through two seasons, is arguably the best player on their team right now, and rises up our redraft board to go at six to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Sengun is one of the most creative passers and finishers around the rim in the entire league, residing in the tier just below Nikola Jokic and bearing a lot of stylistic similarities to the reigning MVP. He is a great rebounder, an excellent passer and has a developing outside shot. He isn’t much of a rim protector, so pairing him with secondary rim protection at the 4 will be important, but he is a unique offensive player and deserving of a rise up redraft boards.

6)阿尔佩伦申京 中锋，俄克拉荷马城雷霆队

我们刚刚报道了休斯敦火箭队 2021 年四个首轮选秀权中最高的选秀权，现在我们来看看他们的第二个背靠背选秀权。阿尔佩伦申京在两个赛季中一直是比贾伦·格林（Jalen Green）更好的球员，可以说是他们队中目前最好的球员，并且在我们的重新选秀板上排名第六，与俄克拉荷马城雷霆队竞争。 申京是整个联盟中最具创造力的传球手和篮下终结者之一，其排名仅低于尼古拉·约基奇，并且与卫冕 MVP 有很多风格相似之处。他是一名出色的篮板手，出色的传球手，并且外线投篮能力不断提高。他并不是一个很好的篮筐保护者，所以在四号位为他配备辅助篮筐保护将很重要，但他是一名独特的进攻球员，值得重新选秀板。

7)QUENTIN GRIMES

Shooting Guard, Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors originally drafted Jonathan Kuminga here, and it would be reasonable for them to take him again here. Instead, they take a player who originally went 25th to the New York Knicks, Quentin Grimes, who has been a revelation and developed into a starter for a Knicks team that has been better than the Warriors this season.

Grimes is a rugged wing defender, able to check the opposing team’s most dangerous wing threat. On top of that, he has a smooth outside jumper and is developing into a high-volume 3-point shooter; in a year or two he will likely be among the league leaders in 3-pointers made. He is a 3-and-D wing with the potential to improve even more, the kind of player who would fit perfectly on the Warriors (or any team).

7）昆汀·格莱姆斯 得分后卫，金州勇士队

金州勇士队最初在这里选中了乔纳森·库明加，他们再次选择他在这里也是合理的。相反，他们选择了一位最初在纽约尼克斯队排名第25位的球员昆汀·格里姆斯(Quentin Grimes)，他已经成为尼克斯队的一个亮点，并在本赛季比勇士队表现更好的尼克斯队中成长为首发球员。 格莱姆斯是一名坚固的侧翼防守者，能够阻止对方球队最危险的侧翼威胁。最重要的是，他拥有一手流畅的外线跳投，并且正在发展成为一名高命中率的三分射手；一两年后，他可能会跻身联盟三分球命中数领先者之列。他是一名 3D 侧翼球员，有进一步提高的潜力，是那种非常适合勇士队（或任何球队）的球员。

8)JOSH GIDDEY

Guard, Orlando Magic

Josh Giddey is a polarizing player, just as much after nearly two seasons as he was when the Oklahoma City Thunder surprisingly drafted him sixth overall in 2021. His passing is remarkable, his positional size and rebounding are strong, and he has developed as a scorer with a deep bag of flips and tricks around the basket.

The rub for Giddey is that his shot still looks broken, and he is a 30.2 percent 3-point shooter and a 74.5 percent free-throw shooter; he might still develop his shot, but a knockdown jumper isn’t hiding in his profile. You can build a well-spaced offense around a player like Giddey, but it takes work. His strengths outweigh that weakness here at eighth. The Orlando Magic pair him with Jalen Green, hopefully providing the kind of table-setter to maximize Green’s impact and development.

8）乔什·吉迪 后卫，奥兰多魔术队

乔什·吉迪是一位两极分化的球员，就像他在 2021 年俄克拉荷马城雷霆队令人惊讶地以第六顺位选中他时一样，已经经历了近两个赛季。他的传球非常出色，他的位置尺寸和篮板能力很强，而且他已经发展成为一名得分手在篮筐周围进行大量空翻和技巧。 吉迪的问题在于，他的投篮看起来仍然很糟糕，而且他的三分球命中率为 30.2%，罚球命中率为 74.5%；他可能仍在发展自己的投篮能力，但击倒跳投并没有隐藏在他的个人资料中。你可以围绕吉迪这样的球员建立一个良好的进攻空间，但这需要付出努力。他的优势超过了劣势，排名第八。奥兰多魔术队将他与贾伦·格林配对，希望能提供一种能够最大限度地发挥格林影响和发展的球员。

9)TREY MURPHY III

Forward, Sacramento Kings

Trey Murphy III has been an excellent pick for the New Orleans Pelicans, who originally took the wing out of Virginia with the 17th pick. He is a true 3-point bomber, hitting 38.5 of his 5.6 3-point attempts per game. He is also a solid defender, although he can get blown by and hasn’t developed the strength to bang inside in small-ball lineups yet. The Sacramento Kings go for a player whose size and shooting make him a better fit than Davion Mitchell, their original pick here at nine.

9)特雷·墨菲三世 前锋，萨克拉门托国王队

特雷·墨菲三世 (Trey Murphy III) 是新奥尔良鹈鹕队的绝佳新秀，他们最初以第 17 顺位从弗吉尼亚队挑选了侧翼球员。他是一名真正的三分轰炸机，场均出手 5.6 次三分球，命中率高达 38.5 次。他也是一名可靠的防守者，尽管他可能会被击垮，而且还没有发展出在小球阵容中冲击内线的力量。萨克拉门托国王队正在寻找一名身材和投篮能力都比达维昂·米切尔更合适的球员，达维昂·米切尔是他们最初在九号位选择的球员。

10)JONATHAN KUMINGA

Forward, Memphis Grizzlies

The Memphis Grizzlies originally took Zhaire Williams, a former top prospect who has been a solid defender and shown flashes offensively, but who hasn’t put it together yet for a team that would love another option at forward. Jonathan Kuminga is the better version of Williams in this draft class in essentially every way.

Right now, Kuminga is a high-level defender, clearly showing growth as the understudy to Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala. The Warriors are throwing him on players like Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James. Offensively, he is a hyper-athletic finisher and is feasting on cuts and in transition. His on-ball creation game needs some work, but there has been enough to suggest he could get there and turn into an All-Star type of player one day. He also might not, and simply settle out as an elite defender and finisher, but that combination of floor and upside is too good to fall out of the Top 10.

10) 乔纳森·库明加 前锋，孟菲斯灰熊队

孟菲斯灰熊队最初选择了扎伊尔·威廉姆斯，他是一名前顶级新星，一直是一名可靠的防守者，在进攻端也表现出色，但他还没有为一支愿意选择另一个前锋的球队做好准备。乔纳森·库明加基本上在这届选秀中的各个方面都是威廉姆斯的更好版本。 目前，库明加是一名高水平的后卫，作为德雷蒙德·格林和安德烈·伊戈达拉的替补，他明显地表现出了成长。勇士队把他扔给了科怀·伦纳德和勒布朗·詹姆斯这样的球员。在进攻方面，他是一名运动能力超强的终结者，并且擅长切入和攻防转换。他的持球创造能力还需要一些努力，但已经有足够的证据表明他有一天可以成为一名全明星球员。他也可能不会，只是简单地定位为一名精英防守者和终结者，但这种地板和优势的结合太好了，不可能跌出前十名。

11)CAM THOMAS

Guard, Charlotte Hornets

The most recent riser up the board, Cam Thomas has started to show flashes in the last month that he could be a dangerous weapon as an on-ball creator and scorer. His 3-point shot has turned into a weapon and he notched multiple 40-point outings in the midst of the Brooklyn Nets’ chaotic season. Only two players from this draft class have reached 40 points: Jalen Green (four times) and Cam Thomas (three times). He is a much better choice here than the Charlotte Hornets’ originally drafted point guard, James Bouknight.

12)HERB JONES

Wing / Forward, San Antonio Spurs

Herb Jones becomes the first player in our redraft to leap into the lottery from the second round, and depending on how you value his defense could land higher or lower than this. He has been perhaps the second-best defensive player in this draft class behind only Evan Mobley, with the size, length and speed to defend multiple positions.

The problem? His offensive game is a big work in progress. His 3-pointer fell from a respectable 33.7 percent last season to 28.3 percent this year, and he doesn’t bring much in terms of high-level passing or shot creation inside the arc. Still, he’s an elite defender, and the San Antonio Spurs would love to plug such a player into their young group rather than their original pick here at 12.

13)JALEN SUGGS

Guard, Indiana Pacers

Most guard prospects who struggle offensively upon entering the NBA are massive negatives to their teams, but Jalen Suggs is cut differently. His shot has completely deserted him since he was drafted (25.2 percent from 3-point range) and he isn’t finishing well from inside or at the line either. Even so, he has been a helpful player to the Orlando Magic because of his dogged defense at the point of attack. There is still hope for him to rediscover his offensive game, and if so he can be a solid two-way guard for the Indiana Pacers to pair with Tyrese Haliburton.

14)JOSE ALVARADO

Point Guard, Golden State Warriors

This is the most wild pick of this entire redraft, with the undrafted Jose Alvarado flying up to the last pick of the lottery. “Grand Theft Alvarado” is averaging just nine points per game in his second season but brings so much value to his team in other areas, from his insane on-ball defense to his fearless rim attacks to his brash leadership. He is the kind of player every coach wants on the roster and every player wants to go to war with, and for a Warriors team trying to win titles, the pairing of Quentin Grimes and Alvarado gives them a defensive backcourt to rotate in that will set the tone against any opponent.

2021 Redraft: Picks 15-30

15. Washington Wizards – Ayo Dosunmo, Guard

16. Houston Rockets – Bones Hyland, Guard

17. New Orleans Pelicans – Moses Moody, Wing

18. Oklahoma City Thunder – Jalen Johnson, Forward

19. Charlotte Hornets – Davion Mitchell, Guard

20. Atlanta Hawks – Corey Kispert, Forward

21. LA Clippers – Austin Reaves, Wing

22. Indiana Pacers – Chris Duarte, Wing

23. Houston Rockets – Santi Aldama, Forward

24. Houston Rockets – Zhaire Williams, Forward

25. New York Knicks – Miles McBride, Guard

26. Denver Nuggets – Jericho Sims, Center

27. Brooklyn Nets – Aaron Wiggins, Wing

28. Philadelphia 76ers – Jeremiah Robinson-Earl

29. Brooklyn Nets – Usman Garubo, Big

30. Memphis Grizzlies – Neemias Queta