Ranking NBA Guards Under 25 with Highest Ceilings

ZACH BUCKLEY AUGUST 22，2023

（文章来源：https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10086486-ranking-nba-guards-under-25-with-highest-ceilings）

原文如下：

The future of the NBA looks blindingly bright.

A batch of budding—and, in some cases, established—backcourt stars are a big reason why.

Several have already locked down All-Star selections, and others will soon challenge for those spots. These are, simply put, some of the best young players populating this league.

But how does one separate one up-and-comer from the next? That's the task we're tackling here.

To establish our playing field, we'll limit the player pool to those who will be under the age of 25 by opening night. While we need to wade into subjective waters when projecting future growth, objectively weighing current production is a big part of the process, too.

So, which young guards have the chance to climb highest over the course of their careers? Let's find out.

A 6'8" floor general, Josh Giddey can see passing lanes smaller guards can't access and has the arm talent to thread needles like a world-class tailor.

The 20-year-old's offensive range is limited (and his 72.3 free-throw percentage hardly guarantees its expansion) as is his athleticism, so there are a few warts in his game. But you have to look past his growing pile of triple-doubles (eight through two seasons) to find them.

One year removed from being the No. 12 pick and still only 22 years old, Jalen Williams already looks like the rare glue guy capable of making a leap to stardom.

His glue-guy game speaks to his two-way versatility, but his late-season eruption suggests his ascension is either possible or probable.

Over his final 19 outings, Williams averaged 19.2 points on 54.8/44.4/88.3 shooting with 5.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.7 steals in 33.6 minutes.

Cade Cunningham isn't the easiest to evaluate, since one of his seasons was derailed by shin surgery and both have been spent with a rebuilding Pistons team that has no shot at winning.

Still, it's hard not to let imaginations run wild with thoughts of what the 6'6", 220-pound, 21-year-old could achieve.

If you buy his three-ball developing (his career 84.4 free-throw percentage likes its chances), then he has very few weaknesses and a wealth of strengths. At his peak, he could be a top-15 scorer and table-setter who plays effective, versatile defense.

No, Scoot Henderson hasn't played an NBA game yet, but this is all about potential, and this summer's No. 3 pick offers gobs of it.

His bounciness and burst bring to mind Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose in their prime, but the 19-year-old is so much more than an elite athlete. He is a ferocious competitor who can create for himself and his teammates, demoralize opponents at the rim and make plays on the defensive end.

If he polishes his perimeter shot, this ranking won't be nearly high enough.

LaMelo Ball was a polarizing player before he even made it to the league, so this ranking may not be met with universal agreement. That's fine.

The 22-year-old has encountered some turbulence through three NBA seasons, but he has also put up gaudy numbers and delectable highlights along the way, hinting loudly about his centerpiece potential.

In terms of dribbling, distributing and long-distance shooting, he blends those skills like few others can. His first three seasons, spent in the less-than-fertile developmental grounds of Charlotte, have yielded more than 3,000 points, 1,000 assists, 1,000 rebounds and 400 three-pointers. Luka Dončić is the only other player to hit those marks this early in his career.

Ball, who's been an audacious shooter since his days as a prep phenom, has already exceeded expectations on the efficiency front, too. Sure, his 42.6 career field-goal percentage could use a lift, but he's hit 37.7 percent of his threes and 82.8 percent of his foul shots. If he expands his inside-the-arc arsenal, he could have a 50/40/90 run down the line.

He has underwhelmed as a defender and not always been the soundest decision-maker, and those problem areas are too worrisome to slot him any higher. But surround him with reliable shooters and defenders, and that could mask his weaknesses, enhance his strengths and possibly put him on an All-NBA path.

Despite being a lottery pick (No. 12 in 2020), stardom was hardly guaranteed for Tyrese Haliburton. He has good size for the point guard position (6'5"), but that's it for positive physical traits. He is neither blindingly quick nor particularly bouncy. His unorthodox shooting form has been a talking point since before he launched his first NBA three.

And yet, the 23-year-old is coming off the first All-Star season of his career and looking like he'll book a boatload more trips to the world's greatest pickup game.

Haliburton is almost a throwback floor general and a modern scoring point guard rolled into one. He is creative and calculated with his passing, and he already knows how to bend an NBA defense the way he wants. He has also used that funky form to become one of the best long-distance shooters around, splashing 40-plus percent of his triples and ranking among the league's top pull-up perimeter shooters (2.2 makes per game at a 39.7 percent clip in 2022-23).

His potential could still be held back a pinch by his athletic limitations, but how much higher does he even need to climb to justify this ranking? He just bagged his first 20-point, 10-assist season-long stat line while flirting with a 50/40/90 connection rate.

If he isn't already an elite, he'll get there in short order and could maintain that lofty standing for the better part of a decade.

Luka Dončić has soared so high so quickly in his career that he could start bumping into his ceiling pretty soon. But this lack of growth potential isn't as damaging as it sounds.

Even if he's close to maxing out his potential—there are still ways for the 24-year-old to improve, which we'll dissect in a minute—he has raised the bar higher than any other young guard can reasonably reach.

You can say he's on course to reach all-time greatness and still wonder if you're fully capturing the magnitude of his long-term outlook.

"He plays the game at his rhythm, he is very big, he can shoot, he can pass, he can rebound," fellow Slovenian Goran Dragić said of Dončić last September, per BasketNews. "... I think he could be . He is still very young, but if he stays healthy and plays a long more time I think that by the end of his career he could be the best ever."

Praise—and potential—can't get any higher than that, yet it may not be hyperbole. Dončić can be a bit loose with the ball (career 4.0 turnovers per game), isn't wildly efficient from three (33.8) or at the line (73.9) and has more than a few defensive flaws. But highlighting them feels nitpicky when he's so absurdly dominant even with those weaknesses.

He is a merciless attacker who consistently bends opposing defenses how he wants and carves them up with dribble drives, on-point dimes, step-back threes and two-steps-ahead processing skills. His last four seasons have yielded per-game contributions of 29.4 points, 8.8 rebounds and 8.5 assists.

While every other player on this list is striving for greatness, Dončić has achieved it already. If this isn't the best he'll ever be, that's a scary—yet wholly possible—thought.

翻译如下：

NBA的未来看起来非常光明。

一批崭露头角的后场明星（在某些情况下是已经成名的后场明星）是一个重要原因。

一些人已经锁定了全明星阵容，而其他人也将很快挑战这些席位。简而言之，他们是这个联盟中一些最优秀的年轻球员。

但如何区分后起之秀呢？这就是我们在这里要解决的任务。

为了建立我们的竞争环境，我们将在开幕之夜之前将玩家池限制为25岁以下的球员。虽然我们在预测未来增长时需要涉足主观领域，但客观权衡当前产量也是该过程的重要组成部分。

那么，哪些年轻后卫有机会在职业生涯中攀登最高点呢？让我们来看看吧。

乔什·吉迪（Josh Giddey）是一名身高 6 英尺 8 英寸的场上将军，他可以看到小个后卫无法进入的传球路线，并且拥有像世界级裁缝一样穿针引线的手臂天赋。这位20岁球员的进攻范围有限（他72.3的罚球命中率很难保证其扩大），他的运动能力也是如此，所以他的比赛中存在一些缺陷。但你必须透过他不断增加的三双（两个赛季八次）才能找到它们。

距第12号秀一年后，年仅22岁的贾伦·威廉姆斯看起来已经是罕见的能够一跃成为明星的粘合剂了。他的球队粘合剂属性说明了他在攻防两端的多才多艺，但他在赛季末的爆发表明他的提升要么是可能的，要么是可能的。在他最后的19场比赛中，威廉姆斯场均上场33.6分钟，得到19.2分、54.8/44.4/88.3的投篮命中率、5.5个篮板、4.5次助攻和1.7次抢断。

凯德·坎宁安并不是最容易评估的人，因为他的一个赛季因胫骨手术而中断，而且这两个赛季都是在一支重建中的活塞队度过的，而活塞队没有获胜的机会。 尽管如此，我们还是很难不去想象这位身高 6 英尺 6 英寸、体重 220 磅、21 岁​​的年轻人能取得什么成就。 如果你相信他的三球发展（他职业生涯84.4的罚球命中率喜欢它的机会），那么他的弱点很少，而优点却很丰富。在巅峰时期，他可以成为前15名得分手和得分手，防守高效、多才多艺。

不，斯科特·亨德森还没有打过一场 NBA 比赛，但这一切都与潜力有关，今年夏天的 3 号秀提供了巨大的潜力。他的弹力和爆发力让人想起巅峰时期的拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克和德里克·罗斯，但这位 19 岁的球员不仅仅是一名精英运动员。他是一位凶猛的竞争者，能够为自己和队友创造机会，在篮下挫伤对手的士气，并在防守端发挥作用。如果他完善自己的外线投篮，这个排名还不够高。

23岁的达柳斯·加兰 (Darius Garland) 已经成为协会的精英进攻发起者之一。 他是过去两个赛季场均贡献 21 分、7 次助攻和 2 个三分球的仅有的五名球员之一。 加兰也在提高他的效率（上赛季职业生涯最高的58.7%真实投篮命中率）和改善他的决策能力（职业生涯最低的13.5%失误率）。

拉梅洛·鲍尔在进入联盟之前就是一位两极分化的球员，因此这个排名可能不会得到普遍认可。没关系。 这位 22 岁的球员在 NBA 的三个赛季中经历了一些动荡，但他也一路上打出了华丽的数据和令人愉悦的亮点，大声暗示着他的核心潜力。 在运球、分球和远距离投篮方面，他将这些技能融为一体，很少有人能做到。他在夏洛特的前三个赛季中度过了不那么肥沃的发展土地，取得了超过 3,000 分、1,000 次助攻、1,000 个篮板和 400 个三分球。卢卡·东契奇是唯一一位在职业生涯早期就达到这些目标的球员。 鲍尔自成为预备队天才以来一直是一位大胆的射手，他在效率方面也已经超出了预期。当然，他职业生涯 42.6 的投篮命中率还需要提升，但他的三分球命中率为 37.7%，罚球命中率为 82.8%。如果他扩大三分线内的进攻能力，他的进攻效率可以达到 50/40/90。 作为一名后卫，他表现不佳，而且并不总是最明智的决策者，而这些问题领域太令人担忧，无法给他更高的位置。但是在他周围有可靠的射手和防守者，这可以掩盖他的弱点，增强他的优势，并可能让他走上全联盟的道路。

尽管是乐透秀（2020 年第 12 顺位），泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 的明星地位却很难得到保证。他拥有适合控球后卫位置的身材（6英尺5英寸），但积极的身体特征仅此而已。他的速度既不是快得令人眼花缭乱，也不是特别有弹性。自从他推出自己的第一个 NBA 三分球之前，他非正统的投篮方式就一直是一个话题。 。 然而，这位 23 岁的球员刚刚结束了职业生涯的第一个全明星赛季，看起来他将预订更多的行程去参加世界上最伟大的皮卡比赛。 哈利伯顿几乎是一位复古的场上将军和一位现代得分控卫的结合。他的传球富有创造力和计算力，而且他已经知道如何按照自己想要的方式扭转NBA的防守。他还利用这种时髦的状态成为了最好的远距离射手之一，三分球命中率超过 40%，并跻身联盟顶级急停外线射手之列（2022 年场均出手 2.2 次，命中率为 39.7%） -23）。 他的潜力仍然可能因运动能力的限制而受到限制，但他甚至需要爬到多高才能证明这个排名是合理的呢？他刚刚获得了整个赛季的第一个20分、10次助攻的数据，同时连接率也达到了50/40/90。 如果他还不是精英，他会在短时间内到达那里，并可以在十年的大部分时间里保持崇高的地位。

如果你能保证贾·莫兰特未来的可用性问题为零，那么他很难跻身前两名。但谁会接受这个赌注呢？ 他的高接触风格和瘦小身材（6英尺3英寸，174磅）的结合长期以来一直对他的寿命构成威胁，今年他已经两次因明显与枪支相关的事件而被停赛。 下赛季初他将面临25场禁赛，这将是他连续第三个赛季缺席20多场比赛。缺席的次数太多了，不能只是隐藏起来。 然而，这位 24 岁的球员在面对这些可用性问题的情况下仍然排名第三，这一事实说明了他极高的天赋水平和不断进步的潜力。他的反重力弹跳可能是他比赛中最迷人的部分，但他领导进攻的能力是最有影响力的。无论他是拨打自己的电话还是为队友准时、准确地投球，他总是能让事情发生。 2021-22赛季，他入选NBA最佳阵容二队。 2022-23赛季，他的助攻数（6.7次上升到8.1次）和篮板数（5.7次上升到5.9次），并且在更少的上场时间（33.1次和31.9次）内几乎得到同样多的得分（26.2次和27.4次）。 如果莫兰特留在球场上，他的未来会怎样，真是令人震惊。

安东尼·爱德华兹只用了三个赛季就首次入选全明星。对于 2020 年选秀状元来说，这是一个令人印象深刻的提升，特别是考虑到他仍然可以再做一两层修饰，这不仅能让他成为年度全明星球员，而且能成为常年入选 NBA 最佳阵容的球员。 在他的新秀年，人们有理由怀疑这位 22 岁的球员是否是一名比篮球运动员更令人印象深刻的运动员，但他已经解决了这个争论。他仍然可以提高自己的投篮水平——尤其是运球后的投篮命中率，因为上个赛季他的引体向上命中率只有 35.1%——但他的投篮命中率（2022-23 赛季为 45.9%）和三分球命中率不断提高。 (36.9) 连接率。 他在冲向篮筐的路上已经是一个行走的桶，因为他的欺凌和弹跳让他在上个赛季的场均突破得分中排名第 14（9.3）。他的下坡驾驶应该会在他的未来带来更多的口哨（他的 5.3 次罚球尝试是职业生涯新高），但如果他找到可靠的上拉并提高他的组织能力（职业生涯 3.7 次助攻对 2.7 次助攻），事情真的会变得有趣营业额）。 不过，如果爱德华兹检查这些方框，并提高他的防守稳定性，他就有双向超级巨星的潜力。这些都是很难实现的飞跃，但这个排名凸显了人们对他进一步发展的信念。

卢卡·东契奇在他的职业生涯中飞速飙升，以至于他很快就会开始触及天花板。但增长潜力的缺乏并不像听起来那么具有破坏性。 即使他已经接近最大限度地发挥自己的潜力——这位 24 岁的球员仍然有很多改进的方法，我们将在一分钟内详细剖析——他已经将标准提高到任何其他年轻后卫都无法合理达到的水平。 你可以说他正在实现历史上的伟大，但仍然想知道你是否完全理解了他的长期前景的重要性。 据《篮球新闻》报道，斯洛文尼亚同胞戈兰·德拉季奇去年九月这样评价东契奇：“他按照自己的节奏打比赛，他身材很高大，能投篮，能传球，能篮板。” “......我认为他可能成为[历史上最好的球员]。他还很年轻，但如果他保持健康并打更长时间，我认为在他的职业生涯结束时他可能会成为有史以来最好的球员。 ” 赞美和潜力不可能比这更高，但这可能并不夸张。东契奇控球有点松散（职业生涯场均失误 4.0 次），三分球（33.8）或罚球线（73.9）效率不高，并且有不少防守缺陷。但当他尽管有这些弱点却仍占据如此荒谬的统治地位时，强调这些弱点就显得很挑剔了。 他是一名无情的进攻者，总是能随心所欲地削弱对方的防守，并通过运球、定点投篮、后撤步三分和领先两步的处理技巧来分割对手。他过去四个赛季场均贡献29.4分、8.8个篮板和8.5次助攻。 虽然这份名单上的其他球员都在追求伟大，但东契奇已经实现了这一目标。如果这不是他有史以来最好的状态，那是一个可怕的想法，但也是完全可能的。

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广坤点评：继权威媒体The Athletic年度分卫评测仅把杰伦格林排在联盟分卫第34名后，杰伦格林再遭滑铁卢，知名媒体B/R再次发难，继续把被誉为前景光明，且以上乔下科天赋著称的21年榜眼超新星杰伦格林排除在25岁以下后场球员未来前景讨论范围之外，将去年大伤只打12场比赛的坎宁安以及一场未打的亨德森排入榜单，美媒对杰伦格林未来前景的集体看衰由此可见一斑。而华子和东契奇不出意外的进入了榜单前二。

作为火箭队的榜眼秀，杰伦格林承载着巨大的期望和压力，但他生涯两个赛季表现远远未达预期，屡屡刷新各项历史纪录，两年时间如白驹过隙，如今的他已经不再拥有新秀标签，新赛季随着新球员的加入火箭队内竞争会空前激烈，其他年轻球员的潜力和实力逐渐显现，他们也将逐渐蚕食杰伦格林的位置。前有追兵后有猛虎，杰伦格林面临着巨大的压力和挑战，相信格林已经为此做好了准备，努力训练，稳扎稳打，真正务实的在乌杜卡的火箭中站稳脚跟并为球队作出贡献。