Which Player from 2021 NBA Draft Class Has the Highest Ceiling?

ANDY BAILEY

SEPTEMBER 6, 2023

原文地址：https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10088145-which-player-from-2021-nba-draft-class-has-the-highest-ceiling

原文如下：

We're two years removed from the 2021 NBA draft, which means we have two seasons of video, production and numbers with which to analyze the class.

All of that makes it significantly easier to determine (or at least declare) the upside or ceiling of the players in that group.

However, predicting the future is always going to take tons of subjectivity. Even with numbers, film, (in some cases) playoff appearances and more to guide us, there's still some guesswork involved.

We've combined all of the above to rank the highest-ceiling players from the 2021 draft class.

Peruse the list of players drafted in 2021, and it becomes clear pretty quickly that this class has a chance to be special. And that means whittling it down to a top five is a challenge.

As is the case with every year, though, there are also some players who seem unlikely to touch their pre-draft projections.

Though this slide is by no means exhaustive, below, you'll find a few names from each category.

Age:22

Class Rank in Career Wins Over Replacement Player: 2nd

Inefficient shooting, particularly from the outside, is a real concern for Scottie Barnes. He's below average in pretty much every important indicator on that front, including his free-throw percentage.

The upside is still undeniable, though, in large part due to Barnes' size (6'9" with a 7'2" wingspan and 227 pounds), versatility and perimeter skills.

In college, Barnes essentially operated as a point guard. And while he's had some opportunities to flash that skill set in the league, the presence of Fred VanVleet certainly limited them.

This season, even with Dennis Schröder incoming, Barnes should get more possessions as the de facto point guard. And piloting lineups with four shooters would go a long way to neutralizing his own weakness in that area of the game.

More reps as a point forward and continued growth and development as a multipositional defender could have Barnes in the hunt for All-Star selections within the next few years.

Age: 22

Class Rank in Career Wins Over Replacement Player: 6th

At 6'9", Franz Wagner can play either forward position, but that doesn't really do his versatility justice. When operating on the perimeter, despite his forward-sized frame, he looks very much like a guard.

And, eventually, his ability to create off the bounce and from the outside could make him a legitimate point forward.

But even if he just stays on his current trajectory, Wagner could be competing for All-Star appearances as early as 2023-24.

Last season, he averaged 18.6 points, 3.5 assists and 1.6 threes, while shooting 36.1 percent from three.

If he wasn't on the same roster as Paolo Banchero, those are the kind of numbers from a 21-year old that would have fans and media clamoring to call him a long-term No. 1 option.

Age: 20

Class Rank in Career Wins Over Replacement Player: 4th

At 6'8" and 20 years old, Josh Giddey already does a bit of everything.

He's led the Oklahoma City Thunder in rebounds per game in each of his two NBA seasons. And among 6'8"-plus players, he's fifth in career assist percentage. The names ahead of him on that list? Magic Johnson, LeBron James, Nikola Jokić and Ben Simmons. That's it.

That kind of playmaking alone from a 6'8" player would make Giddey one of the highest-upside names in this class. But again, he brings more.

Finding a creator who can run the offense and get everyone else easy looks is hard enough. Getting that from a player who can also get you seven or eight rebounds and be reasonably expected to defend wings and forwards is exceptionally rare.

The most glaring hole in Giddey's game right now is an inconsistent outside shot, but he's already taken a stride there. He shot 32.5 percent from three in 2022-23, compared to 26.3 percent as a rookie. If he can drag that mark to average, he'll be one of the game's most interesting point men.

Age: 22

Class Rank in Career Wins Over Replacement Player:1st

There's a value to Giddey's playmaking that Evan Mobley will never replicate. Despite being a decent passer for his position and player archetype, he'll almost certainly have teammates creating shots for him for much of his career.

So, what is it that more than makes up that gap in playmaking?

More than anyone else profiled so far (including Jones from the honorable mentions), Mobley absolutely has the potential to anchor a championship-level defense. He can protect the rim and holds up well on switches to the perimeter. And just two seasons into his NBA career, he already has an All-Defense nod.

With just marginal improvements on the offensive end (he already averaged 16.2 points and 2.8 assists in Year 2), he will be in the hunt for All-Star appearances.

Age: 21

Class Rank in Career Wins Over Replacement Player: 14th

Putting Cade Cunningham in this spot takes a leap of faith.

Injuries have limited him to just 76 games over his first two seasons, and his numbers from those contests don't jump off the screen.

Career marks of 17.8 points, 5.6 assists and 1.7 threes are intriguing, but his effective field-goal percentage is waybelow average.

When he plays, though, you can see the template of a playmaker with size. And his college shooting numbers (40.0 percent from three and 84.6 percent from the line) suggest he'll eventually figure that out.

The way Cunningham already knows how to mix up pace, the way he reads the floor in pick-and-roll settings and the way he can bully smaller guards are all encouraging signs.

If he can just stay on the floor to get the developmental reps he needs, there's still star upside waiting to be tapped.

翻译如下：

2021年NBA选秀哪位球员的上限最高？

安迪·贝利 2023年9月6日

距离2021年NBA选秀已经过去两年时间，这意味着我们有两个赛季的视频、制作和数据来分析这届球员。 所有这些使得确定（或至少宣布）该组中玩家的优势或上限变得更加容易。 然而，预测未来总是需要大量的主观性。即使有数字、电影、（在某些情况下）季后赛出场情况等信息来指导我们，仍然存在一些猜测。 我们将上述所有内容结合起来，对2021年选秀级别最高的球员进行了排名。 仔细阅读2021年选秀的球员名单，很快就会发现这个班级有机会变得特别。这意味着将其削减到前五名是一个挑战。 不过，与每年的情况一样，也有一些球员似乎不太可能达到选秀前的预测。 尽管这篇文章并不详尽，但您会在下面找到每个类别的一些名称。

年龄：22

生涯胜利贡献度等级：第二

低效的投篮，尤其是外线投篮，是斯科蒂·巴恩斯真正担心的问题。他在这方面的几乎所有重要指标都低于平均水平，包括他的罚球命中率。 不过，其优势仍然是不可否认的，这在很大程度上归功于巴恩斯的身材（6英尺9英寸，臂展7英尺2英寸，体重227磅）、多才多艺和外线技术。 在大学里，巴恩斯基本上担任控球后卫。虽然他有一些机会在联盟中展示自己的技能，但弗雷德·范弗利特的存在无疑限制了他们。 本赛季，即使丹尼斯·施罗德加盟，巴恩斯作为事实上的控卫也应该获得更多的控球权。而由四名射手组成的试点阵容将大大有助于消除他自己在比赛这一领域的弱点。 作为控球前锋的更多出场次数以及作为多位置后卫的持续成长和发展可能会让巴恩斯在未来几年内成为全明星球员。

年龄：22

生涯胜利贡献度等级：第六

身高6英尺9英寸的弗兰兹·瓦格纳可以打任意一个前锋位置，但这并不能真正体现他的多才多艺。当在外线作战时，尽管他的身材是前锋，但他看起来非常像一名后卫。 最终，他从外线创造弹跳机会的能力可能使他成为一名合格的控球前锋。 但即使他只是保持目前的轨迹，瓦格纳最早也可能在 2023-24 赛季参加全明星赛。 上赛季，他场均贡献18.6分、3.5次助攻和1.6个三分球，三分命中率为36.1%。 如果他不和保罗·班切罗在同一个名单上，那么这位21岁球员的数据会让球迷和媒体大声疾呼称他为长期的第一选择。

年龄：20

生涯胜利贡献度等级：第四

乔什·吉迪 (Josh Giddey) 身高6英尺8英寸，年仅20岁，已经什么都会了。 在他的两个NBA赛季中，他的场均篮板数都领先俄克拉荷马城雷霆队。在身高6英尺8英寸以上的球员中，他的职业生涯助攻率排名第五。这份名单上排在他前面的名字是“魔术师”约翰逊、勒布朗·詹姆斯、尼古拉·约基奇和本·西蒙斯。就是这样。 仅凭一位6英尺8英寸的球员的这种组织能力就足以让吉迪成为这个级别中上升空间最大的名字之一。但同样，他带来了更多。 找到一个能够组织进攻并让其他人轻松看起来的创造者已经够难的了。从一个能够为你抢下七八个篮板并且被合理预期防守侧翼和前锋的球员身上获得这样的成绩是非常罕见的。 吉迪现在比赛中最明显的漏洞是不稳定的外线投篮，但他已经在这方面迈出了一大步。 2022-23赛季，他的三分命中率为32.5%，而新秀时的命中率为26.3%。如果他能把这个分数拉到平均水平，他将成为比赛中最有趣的控卫之一。

年龄：22

生涯胜利贡献度等级：第一

吉迪的组织能力具有埃文·莫布里永远无法复制的价值。尽管就他的位置和球员原型而言，他是一名不错的传球手，但他几乎肯定会在职业生涯的大部分时间里让队友为他创造投篮机会。 那么，除了弥补比赛组织方面的差距之外，还有什么可以弥补呢？ 莫布里比迄今为止所介绍的任何人（包括荣誉奖中的琼斯）都更有潜力，他绝对有潜力支撑冠军级别的防守。他可以保护篮筐并在外线转换时保持良好的状态。在他的 NBA 职业生涯仅仅两个赛季，他就已经入选了最佳防守阵容。 由于进攻端略有进步（第二年他场均得到16.2分和2.8次助攻），他将有望入选全明星。

年龄：21

生涯胜利贡献度等级：第14位

把凯德·坎宁安放在这个位置上需要一个信念的飞跃。 伤病使他在前两个赛季只打了76场比赛，而他在这些比赛中的数据也并没有从屏幕上跳出来。 职业生涯场均17.8分、5.6次助攻和1.7个三分球，令人着迷，但他的有效投篮命中率远低于平均水平。 不过，当他上场时，你可以看到一个身材高大的组织核心的模板。他的大学投篮命中率（三分球命中率为 40.0%，罚球命中率为 84.6%）表明他最终会解决这个问题。 坎宁安已经知道如何混合节奏，他在挡拆中阅读场上的方式以及他可以欺负小个后卫的方式都是令人鼓舞的迹象。 如果他能留在场上获得他需要的发展代表，那么他仍然有明星优势等待挖掘

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广坤点评：坎宁安有多么优秀，看看各大知名美媒的评价便可见一斑。上个赛季几乎报销仍然风评不减，大伤初愈便被科尔邀请去美国男篮正赛队伍，可以说只要坎宁安保持健康，他就是21届最佳。瓦格纳和吉迪在刚刚过去的男篮世界杯上出尽风头，吉迪当选男篮世界杯最佳新星，瓦格纳则收获冠军奖杯和MVP。内线新星莫布里则入选22-23赛季最佳防守阵容一阵，大家都分别在各自领域不断获得各项殊荣。而我们的大年榜眼被誉为天赋上乔下科的杰伦格林这两年在忙些什么？历史第二差的防守，被人诟病的低效进攻，两年NBA生涯没有一次两双，-966奇迹等，一个又一个振聋发聩的现实不断冲击着球迷和球队忍耐的底线。格林在火箭的生涯可谓涯坎坷不断，先是被前全明星球员沃尔警告比赛没有胜负心换个队伍会被扫出联盟，后被刚上任的乌杜卡摆上货架寻求交易。当球队夏季引进后场领袖范乔丹后，火箭后场球员已经人满为患，格林至今还在为争取一个球队稳固位置而发愁，前有范乔丹小波特，后有阿门白魔，以及在世界杯上攻防一体技惊四座的锋卫摇摆人狄龙。格林的表现到目前为止严重低于所有人的预期，这一切在21届选秀前都是不能想象的。但是有句俗话说得好，既来之则安之，格林既然以高顺位来到了火箭，说明两者命中有注定的缘分，希望格林在23-24赛季能打出一个务实的赛季，不要被”全明星““DPOY”“最佳阵容”“得分王”等好高骛远的目标所干扰，真正踏踏实实在攻防两端进步为一名NBA合格轮换。