本文为2023年5月13日所作，当时勇士队刚刚止步季后赛次轮。温故知新，回顾问题，解决问题，希望勇士队可以越来越好。

In the end, it wasn’t some young upstart that knocked the Warriors off their pedestal into an uncertain future. Not Boston as redemption on the final climb up the mountain,not Denver earning its playoff stripes by knocking off the king.

终于，勇士的赛季结束了，但不是因为被某个年轻的后起之秀打下神坛，自此陷入不确定的未来；不是因为凯尔特人最后爬上峰顶，完成对上赛季的救赎；也不是因为沦为掘金一路过关斩将、在季后赛自我证明的垫脚石。

No, the thing that sent Team Light Years into existential despair wasn’t the next space age basketball paradigm … it was a 43-win team playing caveman basketball, one that opened the clinching game with seven straight post-ups and hammered them into submission. What year is this again?

让勇士这个“光年战队”陷入生死绝望的，不是属于下一个太空时代的篮球......而是打着原始社会穴居人时代的篮球、整个赛季仅有43胜、关键战开场用连续七个后仰将他们打得服服帖帖的洛杉矶湖人。看到这些，我不禁感叹：“今夕是何年？”

Nonetheless, the Warriors are here, the place that all contenders eventually end up late in their run: old, expensive and trending toward average. The core will be increasingly difficult to keep together in any kind of coherent form going forward. Even relative to other aging contenders of recent yore, these Warriors are somewhat older and massively more expensive.

时光不能倒流，勇士队还是走到了这一步。所有的逐鹿者，最终都会落得这样的下场：老迈、昂贵、趋于平庸。未来，勇士队的核心阵容将越来越难以保持不变。就算是和近期其他趋于老迈的球队相比，勇士队现在的队员也是更老的，而且薪资要贵的多。

It’s not just that the Warriors went 44-38 despite relatively good health, it’s that everyone is getting older and no help is around the corner. Of the mainstays of this title run, Steph Curry is 35, Klay Thompson is 33 and coming off two serious injuries, and Draymond Green is also 33. Andre Iguodala, if you remember him, is 39 and played eight games this year.

勇士的问题，远不止是在健康状况相对良好的情况下，仅取得了 44 胜 38 负的战绩，而是勇士的每个人都在变老，身边又没有帮手。这次卫冕的主力阵容中，斯蒂芬·库里已经 35 岁，两次大伤归来的克莱·汤普森 33 岁，德雷蒙德·格林也是 33 岁。安德烈·伊戈达拉，如果你还记得他的话，已经 39 岁了，今年只打了 8 场比赛。

Wait, it gets worse: Father Time is taking its toll, but the new CBA is here to finish the job. The Warriors spent freely to keep this team together, and especially to augment it once Kevin Durant left. Their willingness to absorb a massive luxury tax bill to turn that money into Andrew Wiggins (eventually) got them an additional crown in 2022.

时间老人无情，勇士众将迟暮；新劳资协议出台，勇士棺上钉钉。为了维持阵容，勇士队不惜散尽千金，在凯文·杜兰特离开之后，勇士的开支更大了。他们不惜承担巨额奢侈税，重金交易得到安德鲁·威金斯，终于在 2022 年再夺奥布莱恩杯。

However, the rules are becoming more draconian just when the Warriors could use a little more flexibility. Golden State will have only minimum contracts available to augment the roster unless it slashes and burns what is currently there.

然而，就在勇士队需要更多灵活性的时候，联盟的相关规则却变得越来越苛刻。金州勇士队除非对现有阵容进行大刀阔斧的改革，否则将只能用底薪球员来为阵容小修小补。

Green has a player option and could become a free agent, although our Shams Charania and Anthony Slater report that an extension seems more likely. Jordan Poole, coming off a series where he was nigh unplayable, is about to see his salary bump from a great value ($3.9 million) to a potential liability ($28.2 million, presuming his $500,000 incentive for winning Defensive Player of the Year doesn’t kick in). Thompson is set to make $43 million next year despite being, at this point, a pretty average player who was low-key brutal for much of the playoffs.

格林拥有球员选项，有可能成为自由球员，但是据沙拉尼亚和安东尼·斯莱特的报道，格林续约可能性更大。乔丹·普尔在系列赛差到几乎无法上场。在这之后，他的薪水即将从超值的390 万美元升到2820 万美元，无疑是一个潜在的累赘（假设他获得年度最佳防守球员， 还会额外获得50 万美元奖励）。汤普森明年要拿 4300 万美元，尽管他目前的表现相当一般，在季后赛的大部分时间里表现可以说是不声不响地惨不忍睹。

It becomes increasingly hard for successful teams to pipeline youth, and the Warriors are learning that part, too. They thought they had a workaround with the help of a horrific 2019-20 season that yielded the second pick in the draft, and a one-sided trade for Wiggins that gifted them the seventh pick a year later. Unfortunately, the two players they selected combined to play zero relevant minutes in the second round of the playoffs. RIP Two Tracks,which is a lot harder than it looks, as it turns out; the odds of any draft pick turning into a franchise’s next Curry are vanishingly small.

对于成功的球队来说，培养年轻人变得越来越难，勇士队也正在认识到这一点。他们本以为自己有一个变通的办法：勇士 2019-20 赛季破罐破摔，在选秀大会上获得了第二顺位的选秀权，并在一年后通过交易得到了维金斯，顺便获得了第七顺位的选秀权。不幸的是，他们后来选中的两名球员，在季后赛第二轮上场时间之和为零，宣告“两条腿走路"的建队策略破产。事实证明，未来和现在兼得这件事，看起来容易，实现起来难。把选到的新秀培养成下一个库里的几率，真的是微乎其微。

The question now for Golden State is even if they wanted to keep this rolling, how can they? The cap rules will continue to chip away at them. For instance, guard Donte DiVincenzo is DiVingonzo after making just $4.5 million last season. He will surely opt out of his $4.7 million deal for next season and likely have offers for the full midlevel exception, which the Warriors’ cap position prevents them from matching or even replacing.

金州现在的问题是，如果他们想维持阵容打下去，又能怎么操作呢？因为工资帽的存在，勇士阵容会继续挨刀。例如后卫唐特·迪温琴佐，上赛季他的薪水只有 450 万美元。下赛季，迪温琴佐肯定会选择跳出 470 万美元的合同，而且很可能会得到全额中产特例的报价。而勇士队碍于顶薪状况，根本无法匹配报价，甚至找不到人来替代他。

In spite of that, one wonders if the Warriors will need to cut further. They have over $205 million in projected salary for next season if Green either opts in or re-signs for a roughly similar amount, which would put them $55 million over the tax line. Combined with the repeater penalty, that would mean a roughly $250 million luxury tax check to the league, which is more than every other team’s payroll, to keep together a 44-win team that is only getting older and can’t make any additions.

尽管如此，人们不禁要问，勇士队是否还需要进一步裁员。如果格林选择不跳出合同或以大致相同的价格续约，勇士下赛季的薪金预计将超过 2.05 亿美元，超过税线 5500 万美元。因为接连四个赛季里的三个赛季都缴纳奢侈税，叠加罚金生效，勇士要向联盟缴纳总额大约 2.5 亿美元的奢侈税，这比其他所有球队的工资总额都要高。而这支 44 胜的球队只会越来越老，且无法进行任何补强。

It can’t work. The Warriors have to figure out how to get younger and cheaper, and the only plausible way is to shed at least one of their core pieces. There’s a really obvious place to start, at the shooting guard position, where Thompson and Poole will combine to make $71 million next season. Even by the money-out-the-firehose standards of the Warriors, that’s way too much for one position, and they aren’t even getting surplus production from it. Thompson finished the playoffs with a PER of 9.4; it was 9.7 for Poole.

如此操作是行不通的，勇士队必须想办法让阵容更年轻，付更少的钱。唯一可行的办法，就是至少舍弃一名核心球员。有一个位置非常明显可以开刀，那就是得分后卫。汤普森和普尔下赛季的薪资总和将达到 7100 万美元。即使按照勇士队的烧钱标准，7100万的薪资对一个位置来说也太多了，而且他们甚至没有从这个位置上获得多余的产出回报：截至季后赛结束，汤普森的效率值为 9.4，普尔为 9.7。

But what’s really possible with those two? Where is the outside demand coming to take on those contracts? Sorry, but nobody is jonesing to pay Thompson $43 million next year. The Warriors are stuck, stuck, stuck.

但送走这两人真的有可能吗？哪里会有球队来接手这些合同？很遗憾，没有人想在明年付给汤普森 4,300 万美元。所以，勇士队被卡住了，难以调整，转圜不得。

Trade Andrew Wiggins? Sure, he’d have a lot more of a market given his reasonable four-year extension, relative youth (28) and that he plays a position every team is dying to fill. But that would also leave a gaping roster hole on the wing that the Warriors have zero capacity to fill themselves, beyond praying that Jonathan Kuminga – the guy they hid at the end of the bench for the last month – can take over the role.

交易安德鲁·维金斯？当然，他四年续约合同很划算、28岁相对年轻，以及他所打的锋线位置每支球队都渴望填补，他的行情会好很多。但是，勇士假如交易威金斯，就会在侧翼造成一个巨大的空缺。除了祈祷上个月被他们雪藏板凳末端的库明加接替这个角色之外，勇士队根本没有能力填补这个空缺。

Kevon Looney and Gary Payton II are on good contracts for at least another year and would have some trade value, but both are probably more valuable in the Warriors’ system than they would be by playing for most other teams. Also, isn’t the whole point to ditch one of the whale contracts and keep the value guys? Besides, cutting an $8 million deal just doesn’t change the Warriors’ big picture that much.

凯文·卢尼和加里·佩顿二世的合同至少还能再签一年，有一定的交易价值，但这两人在勇士的体系里可能比在其他大多数球队中更有价值。而且，抛弃汤普森或普尔的巨额合同，保留有价值的球员，不是正合勇士之意吗？此外，砍掉一份 800 万美元的合同对勇士队的大局并没有太大的改变。

The Warriors will work the phones looking at something to ease the crunch. They can trade their first-round pick on draft night and could trade a future one (they owe their 2024 pick to Memphis), and may need at least one of those just to unload Thompson or Poole and make the payroll quasi-workable.

勇士队会加紧联系各方，寻求缓解资金紧张的办法。他们可以在选秀夜交易他们的首轮选秀权，也可以交易一个未来的选秀权（勇士欠灰熊一个2024年的选秀权）。此外，勇士队至少要付出一个选秀权，才可以摆脱汤普森或普尔其中一人，让球队总薪有操作的可能性。

They could also resort to deeper shenanigans, such as using the stretch provision on Thompson and then re-signing him for the minimum or the taxpayer MLE; such a move could keep the Warriors beneath the second apron, but adding $14 million in dead money in the following two years could hurt their future tax position.

勇士也可以采用更复杂的操作，比如裁掉汤普森后延期支付，然后和他续约底薪或者迷你中产特例。这样运作可以让勇士处于第二条土豪线之下，但未来两年多了1400万死薪水，可能会对他们之后的奢侈税位置不利。

Speaking of which, if there’s any good news here, it’s that the Warriors’ situation looks significantly better a year out. They may need to weather a rough cap storm in 2023-24, but a year later Thompson’s $43 million comes off the books, and Green would be at a lower number than this year’s $27 million. It’s plausible that the Warriors would be below the tax line by then, believe it or not, and could operate handcuffs-free in the trade and free-agent markets.

说到这里，如果说有什么好消息的话，那就是勇士队一年后的情况看起来要好得多。2023-24赛季，他们可能需要经历一场艰难的顶薪风暴，但一年之后，汤普森的4300万美元就会从勇士账面上消失，而格林的薪水也会比今年的2700万美元更低。不管你信不信，勇士队届时将低于税线，可以在交易市场和自由球员市场自由运作。

The fly in that ointment is that Curry will be 37 by the end of the 2024-25 season. It’s his prime that the Warriors are rightly seeking to maximize, so low-key punting on 2023-24 doesn’t seem like a great plan toward that end. The problem is that I’m not sure there’s a better one. Old, expensive and average is a tough place to be in the NBA. But, after a run of four titles in eight years, that’s where next year’s Warriors seem headed. Digging their way out of it would be their greatest feat yet.

但问题是，到 2024-25 赛季结束时，库里将年满 37 岁。勇士队理应最大限度地利用他的黄金时期，因此，在 2023-24 赛季低调摆烂似乎并不是一个很好的收场。但问题在于，我不知道还有没有更好的方案。对NBA球队而言，又老又贵又平庸可谓天大难题。然而，在八年四冠之后，明年的勇士队似乎正朝着这个方向前进。但是，如果能走出困境，这将是他们迄今为止最伟大的壮举。

原文作者：John Hollinger

原文链接：https://theathletic.com/4516403/2023/05/13/warriors-free-agency-offseason-salary-cap-contracts/

译：/@洛城里 同声传译WhaleXu）

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