What if the Rockets had selected Evan Mobley instead of Jalen Green?

Indulge yourself in some Rockets fan fiction.

By jpiercey24@JamesPiercey11 Sep 30, 2023, 9:11am CDT

原文地址：https://www.thedreamshake.com/2023/9/30/23897056/what-if-houston-rockets-had-selected-evan-mobley-jalen-green-amen-thompson-jabari-smith-jr-nba-draft

原文如下：

Where were you when the Houston Rockets drafted Jalen Green?

That’s a two-pronged question. If you’re a diehard Rockets fan, you remember where you were physically. With that said, you also remember where you were philosophically. At that time, Rockets fandom was in the throws of a bloody civil war. You were either #GreenGang or you were #MobleyMob.

I was a Mobster. I admit it. It’s a scarlet letter that I wear to this day. Some of my thinking has changed since that time. It’s not that I’m any lower on Mobley. He’s going to be a special defensive player and a sturdy second offensive option. Still, there’s a case to be made that special offensive players are scarcer than defensive studs. It may be that it’s a poor use of resources to draft for defense in the lottery.

What if the Rockets had thought differently?

What if the Houston Rockets had drafted Evan Mobley?

Firstly, let’s be clear: this is basically a work of fan fiction. With that said, the angle isn't “What would the author have done”? The angle is “What does the author think Rafael Stone would have done”? Since the author is not clairvoyant, it’s likely that some of my preferences and biases will bleed into the piece.

Let’s answer the question with another question: why didn’t the Rockets draft Mobley? This was a controversial decision. It feels like more than half of the league’s general managers would have gone with him.

In all likelihood, there are at least two answers. Stone probably philosophically believes that you draft for offense with a high lottery pick. Fair. At the same time, it’s been widely reported that Mobley’s father didn’t want his son to play with Kevin Porter Jr.

...Sounds like a pretty good dad.

OK. So, the Rockets select Evan Mobley with the second overall pick in the NBA draft. They quickly trade Porter Jr. - at that time, he probably doesn’t go for much. Let’s say they trade him for a pair of second-round picks. That’s one more than they got him for. Positive value!

Here’s what the Rockets don’t do: trade a pair of protected future firsts for Alperen Sengun. Yes, Sengun and Mobley could play together. If anything, Mobley could be precisely the player to cover for Sengun on the defensive end. Still, it feels like a major misuse of resources to go for two big men with that much draft capital. Moreover, the Rockets still have Christian Wood:

For now.

We’re not changing anything else about the 2021 draft, The Rockets still go with Usman Garuba and Josh Christopher. Some have speculated that Stone only picked Christopher due to his relationship with Green. That could have been a factor, but surely Stone liked something - anything - else about the kid. Now that we haven’t taken Green, he’s an even more sensible pick. The 2021-22 depth chart looks something like this:

PG: John Wall / Daishen Nix / D.J. Augustine

SG: Eric Gordon / Josh Christopher / Armoni Brooks

SF: Jae’Sean Tate / KJ Martin / Garrison Matthews

PF: Evan Mobley / Danuel House Jr. / Usman Garuba

C: Christian Wood / Daniel Theis / Usman Garuba

How does the 2021-22 season look with Mobley?

Frankly, this is probably a marginally better team than the Rockets actually fielded in 2021-22.

Wall is washed. Correct. He’s still going to organize and manage an offense better than Porter Jr. ever did. Moreover, Mobley is going to be more impactful on winning than Green as a rookie. Volume scorers like Green tend to struggle early. Mobley has been a plus defender since the moment he entered the NBA.

Plus, this hypothetical is more fun if the Rockets are a little better. In that spirit, the Rockets land the fifth pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. Here come those preferences and biases we talked about...

First, an order of business. The Rockets still make the Christian Wood trade. Wood still alienates his teammates with his insistence on playing NBA basketball like he’s a 10-year-old James Piercey on the playground pretending to be Michael Jordan in the ‘90s. So long and short, we’re still getting TyTy Washington.

We’re not getting Jabari Smith Jr. This was a three-man draft, and the Rockets are on the outside looking in. I’m also taking the liberty of assuming Jaden Ivey is off the board. The Sacramento Kings may have been the only team in the NBA that wouldn’t have picked him in that spot. We’re invoking the butterfly effect here: someone else is picking fourth in this alternate universe. They take Jaden Ivey.

Guess what? The Oklahoma City Thunder love Keegan Murray. They think he’s the perfect three-and-D wing to pair with Chet Holmgren. On the other hand, Rafael Stone has a different vision. So the Rockets are getting in on a three-team deal that allows them to net two lower lottery picks via the Thunder and the New York Knicks.

Sorry? If Ivey is off the board because the Kings aren’t drafting fourth, why is the rest of the order the same? Oh: I’m rigging this whole thing. Anyway, we can assume that there would have been enough consistency in this hypothetical outcome that such a deal is realistic. Get off my case.

The Rockets select Tari Eason and Ousmane Dieng. Both are seen as a reach. Eason is going to dispel that notion as a rookie. We’re not sure how Dieng looks with higher usage - probably not great. Here’s a rough 2022-23 depth chart:

PG: John Wall / Daishen Nix / TyTy Washington

SG: Eric Gordon / Garrison Matthews / Josh Christopher

SF: Jae’Sean Tate / Ousmane Dieng / KJ Martin

PF: Tari Eason / DJ Wilson / Usman Garuba

C: Evan Mobley / Usman Garuba / Daniel Theis

How about 2022-23?

Some housekeeping is in order. Stone still lets House Jr. walk to a contender - even if nobody wants his number. He doesn’t bother with the Schroeder / Theis deal. Without Sengun around, the Rockets need the big man depth at least as badly as they need point guard depth. So everybody’s favorite rotation player is still on the roster.

Although, Usman Garuba has usurped him. It’s not that he’s better - this team is still tanking, and Garuba has shown promise. He’s seen as a long-term rotation player. Garuba is getting 20ish minutes per game as a reserve combo big.

This team regresses. They didn’t like Wood’s brand of offense, but they still miss his raw production. The Mobley/Eason pairing is enough to get fans excited throughout the year. The Rockets employ an aggressive switching scheme that can generate a lot of turnovers on some nights. They just struggle to get the ball in the bucket. Wall is a shell of himself - Nix is a better option at times.

Oh, and we’re still making the same Eric Gordon trade. He’s still tired of losing and he’s still showing it on the floor. The Rockets are the second-worst team in the NBA, and this time, the lottery balls bounce as they did in real life.

Free agency plays out a little bit differently. The Rockets still sign Fred VanVleet, Jock Landale, Jeff Green and Aaron Holiday. The idea is still to take a major leap forward, but with Mobley in Green’s place, the need for shooting is more pressing than the need for defense. So the Rockets make an aggressive play for Seth Curry instead of Dillon Brooks. Yes, they wanted Austin Reaves. Reaves wanted to stick with the Lakers and play for championships. With that in mind, we’re still dumping Christopher, Washington and Martin to make cap space. We’re hanging onto Garuba - he’s established himself, and Curry comes cheaper than Brooks. Without further ado, Here are your 2023-24 Houston Rockets:

PG: Fred VanVleet / Amen Thompson / Aaron Holiday

SG: Seth Curry / Garrison Matthews / Aaron Holiday

SF: Ousmane Dieng / Jae’Sean Tate / Cam Whitmore

PF: Tari Eason/ Jeff Green / Usman Garuba

C: Evan Mobley / Jock Landale / Usman Garuba

Are the Rockets in a better situation in his alternate universe than they’re in now?

NO.

Selecting Mobley has unintended consequences. For starters, it dissuades the Rockets from making a move for Sengun. Whether you believe he’s the future of the franchise or future playoff pick-and-roll food, he’s clearly got star upside. If the Rockets eventually decide that they’d prefer a defensive presence at the five, Sengun will be an excellent trade chip.

Moreover, the Rockets are victims of their own success. Drafting Mobley means cutting early ties with the Porter Jr. experiment. Mobley was a better rookie than Green, so it also means decreased lottery odds in 2022.

Of course, this is all a bunch of nothing. It could have played out a million different ways. The most egregious liberty I took here was probably selecting Dieng. God, I just love that kid. He’s flashed some potential with the Thunder too, but he’s far from a sure thing. Either way, the operating principle that if the Rockets had selected Mobley, their odds of landing Smith Jr. or Ivey would have decreased is, in my own opinion, sound enough.

With that said, in hindsight, perhaps we all should have been #GreenGang.

翻译如下：

如果火箭选择了埃文·莫布里而不是杰伦·格林会怎么样？

沉浸在一些火箭队粉丝小说中。

jpiercey24 @JamesPiercey11 2023 年 9 月 30 日上午 9:11（美国中部时间）

如果火箭选择了埃文·莫布里，他们还能选中小贾巴里·史密斯吗？

当休斯顿火箭队选中杰伦·格林时你在哪里？

这是一个两方面的问题。如果您是铁杆火箭队球迷，您会记得自己的身体状况。话虽如此，你还记得你在哲学上处于什么位置。当时，火箭队球迷正处于一场血腥的内战之中。你要么是格林粉丝，要么是莫布利粉丝。

我是一个莫布利粉丝，我承认。这是我至今还戴着的红字。从那时起，我的一些想法发生了变化。这并不是说对莫布利偏心。他将成为一名特殊的防守球员和一个稳健的第二进攻选择。不过，有理由认为，特殊进攻型球员比防守型球员更稀缺。这可能是因为在乐透区选秀时对资源的利用不当。

如果火箭队有不同的想法怎么办？

如果休斯顿火箭队选中了埃文·莫布里怎么办？

首先，我们要明确一点：这基本上是一部同人小说。话虽如此，这个角度不是“作者会怎么做”？角度是“作者认为拉斐尔·斯通会怎么做”？由于作者没有洞察力，我的一些偏好和偏见很可能会渗透到这篇文章中。

我们用另一个问题来回答这个问题：为什么火箭没有选秀莫布里？这是一个有争议的决定。感觉联盟一半以上的总经理都会和他一起走。

很可能，至少有两个答案。斯通可能从哲学角度认为，你应该以高乐透顺位选秀进攻。公平的。与此同时，广泛报道称莫布里的父亲不希望他的儿子和小凯文·波特一起打球。

……听起来真是个好爸爸。 于是，火箭队在选秀大会

好的。 于是，火箭队在选秀大会上以第二顺位选中了埃文·莫布里。他们很快就交易了小波特——那时，他可能不会出太多钱。假设他们用他交换了两个第二轮选秀权。这比他们得到他的目的还多了一个。正值！

这是火箭队不会做的事情：用两个受保护的未来第一换来阿尔佩伦·先贡。是的，申京和莫布里可以一起打球。如果说有什么不同的话，莫布里可能正是防守端替申京补位的球员。尽管如此，对于拥有如此多资金的两个大个子来说，这感觉像是对资源的严重滥用。而且，火箭队还有克里斯蒂安·伍德：

目前。

我们不会改变 2021 年选秀的任何其他内容，火箭队仍然选择乌斯曼·加鲁巴和乔什·克里斯托弗。有人猜测斯通之所以选择克里斯托弗是因为他与格林的关系。这可能是一个因素，但斯通肯定喜欢这个孩子的某些东西——任何东西——其他方面。现在我们没有选择格林，他是一个更明智的选择。2021-22 深度图如下所示：

控球后卫：约翰·沃尔 / 戴申·尼克斯 / DJ 奥古斯丁

SG：埃里克·戈登/乔什·克里斯托弗/阿莫尼·布鲁克斯

SF：泰特 /小马丁 / 加里森·马修斯

大前锋：埃文·莫布里 / 小丹尼尔·豪斯 / 乌斯曼·加鲁巴

C：克里斯蒂安·伍德 / 丹尼尔·泰斯 / 乌斯曼·加鲁巴

莫布里的2021-22赛季怎么样？

坦率地说，这可能是一支比火箭在 2021-22 赛季实际派出的球队稍微好一些的球队。

沃尔被洗白了。正确的。他仍然会比小波特更好地组织和管理进攻。此外，作为新秀，莫布里对胜利的影响力将比格林更大。像格林这样的得分手往往很早就陷入困境。自从进入NBA那一刻起，莫布里就一直是一名出色的防守者。

另外，如果火箭队稍微好一点的话，这个假设会更有趣。本着这种精神，火箭队在 2022 年 NBA 选秀中获得了第五顺位。这是我们讨论过的那些偏好和偏见......

首先，业务订单。火箭队仍然进行克里斯蒂安·伍德的交易。伍德仍然因为坚持打NBA而疏远了他的队友，就像他是10岁的詹姆斯·皮尔西在操场上假装成90年代的迈克尔·乔丹一样。总而言之，我们仍然会得到泰泰华盛顿。

我们没有得到小贾巴里·史密斯。这是一个三人选秀，火箭队在外面寻找机会。我也冒昧地假设贾登·艾维已经被排除在外。萨克拉门托国王队可能是NBA中唯一一支不会选择他的球队。我们在这里引用了蝴蝶效应：其他人在这个平行宇宙中选择了第四。他们选择了贾登·艾维。

你猜怎么了？俄克拉荷马城雷霆队喜欢基冈·穆雷。他们认为他是与切特·霍姆格伦搭档的完美三D侧翼。另一方面，拉斐尔·斯通有着不同的愿景。因此，火箭队正在达成一项三队交易，这使他们能够通过雷霆队和尼克斯队获得两个较低的乐透选秀权。

对不起？如果艾维因为国王队没有选第四顺位而被排除在外，为什么其余的顺序是一样的？噢：这一切都是我操纵的。无论如何，我们可以假设这个假设结果有足够的一致性，这样的交易是现实的。离开我的案子。

火箭队选择了塔里·伊森和奥斯曼·迪昂。两者都被认为是可以达到的。伊森将在新秀时期打消这种想法。我们不确定迪昂在使用率较高的情况下会是什么样子——可能不太好。这是 2022-23 年的粗略深度图：

控球后卫：约翰·沃尔 / 戴申·尼克斯 / TyTy Washington

SG：埃里克·戈登 / 加里森·马修斯 / 乔什·克里斯托弗

SF：贾肖恩·塔特 / 奥斯曼·迪昂 / KJ·马丁

大前锋：塔里·伊森 / DJ·威尔逊 / 乌斯曼·加鲁巴

中锋：埃文·莫布里 / 乌斯曼·加鲁巴 / 丹尼尔·泰斯

2022-23怎么样？

一些内务管理工作井然有序。斯通仍然让小豪斯走向竞争者——即使没有人想要他的号码。他不关心施罗德/泰斯的交易。没有森贡在身边，火箭队对大个子深度的需求至少和他们对控球后卫深度的需求一样严重。所以大家最喜欢的轮换球员仍然在名单上。

尽管如此，乌斯曼·加鲁巴已经篡夺了他的位置。这并不是说他更好了——这支球队仍在陷入困境，而加鲁巴已经展现出了希望。他被视为一名长期轮换球员。加鲁巴作为替补组合大个子每场比赛大约有 20 分钟的上场时间。

这支球队退步了。他们不喜欢伍德的进攻风格，但他们仍然怀念他的原始表现。莫布利/伊森的搭档足以让粉丝全年兴奋不已。火箭队采用了激进的换防策略，这可能会在某些夜晚产生大量失误。他们只是努力把球放进桶里。沃尔只是一个空壳——尼克斯有时是更好的选择。

哦，我们仍在进行同样的埃里克·戈登交易。他仍然厌倦了失败，并且他仍然在场上展示它。火箭队是NBA倒数第二的球队，而这一次，彩票球的弹跳就像现实生活中一样。

自由球员的表现略有不同。火箭队仍然签下了弗雷德·范弗利特、乔克·兰代尔、杰夫·格林和亚伦·霍勒迪。想法仍然是向前迈出一大步，但有了莫布里代替格林，投篮的需求比防守的需求更迫切。因此，火箭队对塞斯·库里而不是狄龙·布鲁克斯进行了积极的进攻。是的，他们想要奥斯汀·里夫斯。里夫斯想留在湖人队并为总冠军而战。考虑到这一点，我们仍然抛弃克里斯托弗、华盛顿和马丁以腾出薪金空间。我们会抓住加鲁巴——他已经确立了自己的地位，而库里的价格比布鲁克斯便宜。言归正传，这是您的2023-24赛季休斯顿火箭队：

控球后卫：弗雷德·范弗利特 / 阿门·汤普森 / 亚伦·霍乐迪

SG：塞斯·库里 / 加里森·马修斯 / 亚伦·霍乐迪

SF：奥斯曼·迪昂 / 泰特 / 卡姆·惠特莫尔

PF：塔里·伊森/杰夫·格林/乌斯曼·加鲁巴

C：埃文·莫布里 / 乔克·兰代尔 / 乌斯曼·加鲁巴

火箭队在他的平行宇宙中的处境比现在更好吗？

不。

选择莫布里会产生意想不到的后果。首先，这阻止了火箭队引进申京。无论你相信他是球队的未来还是未来季后赛挡拆的菜品，他显然都有明星般的优势。如果火箭最终决定他们更喜欢在五号位防守，申京将是一个很好的交易筹码。

而且，火箭队也是自己成功的受害者。选中莫布里意味着要切断与小波特实验的早期联系。莫布里是一个比格林更好的新秀，所以这也意味着2022年的乐透赔率下降。

当然，这一切都是空谈。它可以有一百万种不同的方式。我在这里采取的最令人震惊的自由可能是选择了迪昂。天哪，我就是爱那个孩子。他在雷霆队也展现出了一些潜力，但他还远未确定。不管怎样，在我看来，如果火箭选择了莫布里，他们得到小史密斯或艾维的可能性就会降低，这一操作原则是足够合理的。话虽如此，事后看来，也许我们都应该成为格林粉丝。