2025NBA超前选秀榜单:弗拉格状元,VJ第五;值得观察的老生和内线们
With Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr, Donovan Clingan and the rest of the 2024 class off to the NBA, it's time to shift our attention to next year's draft.
The 2025 NBA draft is 12 months away, but we've had our eyes on these players for quite some time, publishing our first mock draft in February.
Over the past few years, we've watched the best prospects of the class grow up in high school, grassroots, USA Basketball and FIBA events, as well as many other settings -- and we will continue that process this summer and fall.
NBA executives were sitting next to us at many of these events and sounded excited about this 2025 draft class, especially at the top where we're seeing quite a bit of star power with headliners Cooper Flagg, Airious "Ace" Bailey and Dylan Harper.
Beyond those elite prospects, there will be others who will undoubtedly emerge in the college ranks and around the globe, the same way Reed Sheppard, Dalton Knecht, Nikola Topic, Devin Carter, Johnny Furphy, Bub Carrington, Kyshawn George and many others did in 2024. That's the fun part of draft projections as one never knows when or where players will emerge, keeping NBA scouts constantly on their toes.
Who will be the No. 1 draft pick in 2025?
Many have already penciled Flagg in as the top pick, and for good reason after an incredible year in which he demolished the Nike EYBL 16U league (averaging 26.8 points, 12.4 rebounds, 5.2 blocks and 4.7 assists per game), led Montverde Academy to a 30-0 record and national championship and then had stellar showings at the Nike Hoop Summit and Jordan Brand Classic games.
Flagg does everything on both ends of the floor, as he's an explosive athlete, a prolific scorer, a much improved 3-point shooter, an outstanding passer and an incredibly impactful defender who plays with nonstop intensity covering ground, making plays at the rim and guarding on the perimeter.
After electing to reclassify and skip his final year of high school, Flagg's youth (he turns 18 on Dec. 21) as well as developing his ballhandling and shot creation are the things scouts will be monitoring most closely at Duke next season. Expectations and pressure will be high from Day 1 for Flagg, and we still have things to learn about whether he indeed projects as a No. 1 type option and franchise player like you'd expect from a top selection.
Flagg, who is ranked No. 1 in the ESPN 100, has grown to 6-foot-9, adding bulk and showing the ability to pass off a live dribble and make pull-up jumpers with impressive confidence. Demonstrating how his talent translates to winning games is likely his best ticket to cementing himself atop the top of the 2025 draft class.
Bailey, who will play for Rutgers in 2024-25, is viewed as Flagg's biggest rival at No. 1. A 6-foot-9 guard who is ranked No. 2 in the ESPN 100, Bailey has outstanding physical skills, defensive versatility, shot-making prowess and a serious-minded, competitive approach. Bailey isn't anywhere near as polished a decision-maker as Flagg but has received far more reps operating on the ball, giving him an advantage as a one-on-one and pick-and-roll operator.
Harper, Bailey's teammate at Rutgers, was the most impressive performer in April of anyone in the class in practices and games at the McDonald's All-American, Nike Hoop Summit and Jordan Brand Classic. Playing almost exclusively at point guard -- despite standing over 6-foot-5, 228 pounds with a 6-10 wingspan. Harper, who is ranked No. 4 in the ESPN 100, has added muscle to his frame, showed impressive ballhandling ability, strength and craft using and rejecting ball screens. He finishes with physicality inside the paint, guards instinctually all over the floor and can pass off a live dribble. He made a barrage of difficult pull-up jumpers every time we saw him play this spring.
Some NBA teams say they have Harper ranked No. 1 in the 2025 class, but others are enamored with Bailey's upside. However, most are sticking with the status quo with Flagg as the early favorite since he's clearly the most accomplished of the group.
Those who have seen enough of this group (most NBA teams are at a very early stage in their evaluations) to have a firm opinion often say any of these three prospects would have likely been drafted No. 1 in the 2024 draft. They are excited to see how this next group plays out, including the possibility of new candidates -- for example Nolan Traore or VJ Edgecombe, two prospects who round out ESPN 100's top five -- joining the conversation.
-- Jonathan Givony
Who are the top returning prospects to watch?
The early iterations of ESPN's mock drafts tend to prioritize incoming freshmen and younger prospects who are higher on the draft board, and these players receive early benefit of the doubt because of their youth, upside and pre-college reputations. Yet it's inevitable that some of them will be replaced in the first round by returning college prospects who break out in new team contexts after making developmental strides in the offseason.
We just saw Knecht, Carter, Zach Edey, Tristan da Silva and many other college returners complete long, impressive climbs into the 2024 draft's first round, and most of them this time a year ago were not viewed as top prospects. With much left to play out over the next year, here are some of the top college players NBA teams will be closely monitoring going into the fall.
Motiejus Krivas, C, Arizona
Krivas logged 12 minutes per game last season for the Wildcats, but with incumbent starter Oumar Ballo transferring to Indiana, the 7-foot-3 Lithuanian center is poised for a breakout opportunity. Krivas is offensively skilled with good footwork and touch around the basket and had some productive moments this season at Arizona.
While more of a traditional center, Krivas has the size and length to be highly impactful as a rebounder and scorer next season. He doesn't stretch the floor, and his defense will be a key area for improvement, but the pieces are here for him to turn into a full-fledged prospect, with the NBA always intrigued by size and productivity.
Collin Murray-Boyles, F, South Carolina
Murray-Boyles (6-foot-7, 231 pounds) enjoyed one of college basketball's under-the-radar breakouts, playing a productive role as an 18-year-old freshman for a South Carolina team that made the NCAA tournament. By the end of the season, he had created NBA intrigue, with a strong feel for the game and a solid motor driving his success despite a somewhat unorthodox profile as an undersized big.
While not an elite athlete, Murray-Boyles' impressive efficiency and ability to generate steals and blocks on the defensive end -- all at a young age for his level -- has made him a player teams, particularly in analytics-driven front offices, are monitoring closely.
KJ Lewis, G, Arizona
Another Arizona player set to step into a bigger role, Lewis produced good moments playing 18 minutes per game as a freshman, most notably on the defensive end. He puts his strength and lateral quickness to good use guarding on the ball and has shown excellent instincts, giving him a pathway to NBA appeal if he can make tangible strides on offense.
Lewis isn't much of a creator on the ball, so his best route to finding a role is likely through improving his perimeter shooting (34.1% last year on 1.1 attempts per game). If he can make a convincing case with his offensive growth, Lewis could have a good amount of first-round interest.
Tyrese Proctor, G, Duke
Proctor's two seasons at Duke haven't justified the lottery-level hype he was receiving earlier in his career, but he showed signs of improvement last season and is still just 20 years old. He'll again be given a lot of responsibility on a loaded team that includes several projected first-round picks, and NBA scouts will be hoping to see tangible growth from him as a shooter, playmaker and leader.
Proctor has good size (6-5) for a point guard and can use it to his advantage defensively, but has struggled to score efficiently and make a consistent winning impact in college. While he's likely a role player at best in the long run, Proctor is capable of putting together the type of complete season that would put him back in the first-round conversation, if things fall in place for him.
Dink Pate, G League Ignite
Pate was left without an immediate home for next season after G League Ignite folded, but remains under contract and has a potential home with the G League's Mexico City Capitanes. Pate, 18, came on toward the end of the season for Ignite, stringing together some good performances, but has major strides to make from an efficiency perspective (40% on 2-pointers and 21.5% from 3) no matter where he plays next season.
It was a steep learning curve for Pate, who has excellent positional size, but wasn't good enough to consistently impact winning at the G League level after making the leap and skipping his senior year of high school. Still, Pate was exceptionally young for that level, and NBA teams will give him a long look regardless to see what type of strides he can make with a full pro season under his belt already.
Jaylin Stewart, F, UConn
Stewart logged spot minutes on UConn's title team as a freshman last season, but looks like a person of interest for NBA teams, considering the way coach Dan Hurley's program has developed talent. Set to step into a bigger role on the wing as the Huskies aim to compete for a third straight championship, Stewart has the size and length (6-7, 205) to be effective on the defensive end and in transition and also offered some limited catch-and-shoot flashes in the minutes he got.
He'll be one of the youngest sophomores in college next season, and with his excellent frame and situation, there's certainly a chance he pops with a larger role. It remains to be seen exactly how he'll fit on a roster that will include a handful of new faces, but the pieces are there for him to take the next step as a big contributor.
Adou Thiero, G, Arkansas
Thiero had sleeper appeal at Kentucky with his explosive athleticism, energy and shot-blocking ability as a 6-7 forward. Having recently turned 20, Thiero will presumably have an expanded opportunity to showcase his upside after following coach John Calipari to Arkansas. He was often undisciplined on the floor and has a long way to go before being trustworthy of minutes at a high level, but Thiero's leaping ability and penchant for making things happen defensively give him an intriguing baseline if he can learn to read the game better and develop as a perimeter shooter.
There's a wide range of development outcomes here, and NBA teams will be interested to see how his role might change in a new situation, even under the same coach.
Alex Karaban, F, UConn
One of the 2024 draft's true tough stay-or-go calls, Karaban chose to remain at UConn and pursue a third championship rather than turn pro. His outstanding feel, catch-and-shoot ability and on-court intelligence makes him a pivotal player for the Huskies, and the type of player who is capable of adding value without needing the ball much. While not an exceptional run-jump athlete, Karaban is also a defender who uses his size (6-8, 220) and anticipation to his advantage.
He has a number of fans already in NBA front offices who will likely be interested in drafting him in a year and it will be curious to see if UConn expands his role on the offensive end.
Ryan Kalkbrenner, C, Creighton
Kalkbrenner has been one of college basketball's top rim-protectors the past few years and opted to return to Creighton prior to the NBA combine rather than go through the pre-draft process in full. At 7-2 with a 7-5 wingspan, Kalkbrenner is a mobile player inside the paint who serves as a huge deterrent at the college level. He has also begun to flash 3-point range, giving him a pathway to an NBA role as a sort of poor man's Brook Lopez, should he stay on his current track developmentally.
While not the fleetest of foot or most physical, the 22-year-old Kalkbrenner will be one of the top players in the Big East next season and will have a chance to reframe the conversation around him as a fringe prospect with another good year, particularly if he starts to consistently space the floor.
Kwame Evans Jr., F, Oregon
Evans exceeded modest expectations as a freshman, showing flashes of his talent as a rangy, defensive presence while also starting to dispel some of the questions that surrounded his motor at times in high school. While still scratching the surface of what he might become, Evans has a good physical profile and has started to produce in the flow of the game as a rebounder, finisher and versatile defender.
He's quite limited as a scorer at the moment. He turns 20 entering next season, putting him on the older side for his class. He will have to shoot the ball better and demonstrate more confidence with the opportunities he gets. But there's a lot of room for growth that could help NBA teams envision a useful frontcourt role, and his length and frame at 6-9 should presumably continue to fill out.
-- Jeremy Woo
Will we see more 7-footers drafted in 2025?
The 2024 draft saw six players standing 7-0 or taller selected in the first round and nine in total -- the most since 2016, when 13 were drafted (eight first-rounders and five second-rounders).
While to some extent this was a simple reflection of what talent was available on the 2024 draft board, it is noteworthy that these players were selected quite high, with Sarr, Clingan and Edey all drafted in the top 10. NBA teams proved willing to prioritize size in a way that hadn't happened in quite some time.
With players such as Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic dominating the MVP conversation and young players such as Victor Wembanyama tracking on that pathway, there remains real matchup utility in having size on the floor, and teams are still clearly quite interested in developing those players.
Only three 7-footers are currently projected in the first round of our 2025 mock (Khaman Maluach, Motiejus Krivas and Rocco Zikarsky), so this will take time to play out. The adage is that you can only draft what's available. This year, teams' decision-making skewed large. Next year's draft, which is expected to be much deeper, may tell whether the influx of size is more of a trend or simply a (big) blip.
2025 Round 1 mock draft
1. Detroit Pistons
Cooper Flagg, SF/PF, Duke | Age: 17.5
2. Washington Wizards
Airious "Ace" Bailey, SG/SF, Rutgers | Age: 17.8
3. Charlotte Hornets
Dylan Harper, PG/SG, Rutgers | Age: 18.3
4. Portland Trail Blazers
Nolan Traore, PG, Saint-Quentin (France) | Age: 18.0
5. Utah Jazz
VJ Edgecombe, SG, Baylor | Age: 18.9
6. Brooklyn Nets
Khaman Maluach, C, Duke | Age: 17.7
7. Toronto Raptors
Hugo Gonzalez, SF, Real Madrid (Spain) | Age: 18.3
8. Chicago Bulls
Tre Johnson, SG, Texas | Age: 18.3
9. San Antonio Spurs
Egor Demin, SG/SF, BYU | Age: 18.3
10. San Antonio Spurs (via Hawks)
Liam McNeeley, SG/SF, UConn | Age: 18.7
11. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Rockets)
Drake Powell, SG/SF, North Carolina | Age: 18.8
12. Sacramento Kings
Michael Ruzic, PF, Joventut (Spain) | Age: 17.7
13. New Orleans Pelicans
Jalil Bethea, SG, Miami | Age: 18.5
14. Memphis Grizzlies
Carter Bryant, SF/PF, Arizona | Age: 18.5
15. Orlando Magic
Noa Essengue, PF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany) | Age: 17.5
15. Indiana Pacers
Donavan Freeman, PF, Syracuse | Age: 18.8
17. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Heat)
Kon Knueppel, SG/SF, Duke | Age: 18.9
18. Utah Jazz (via Cavaliers)
Kasparas Jakucionis, PG, Illinois | Age: 18.0
19. LA Clippers
Motiejus Krivas, C, Arizona | Age: 19.5
20. Golden State Warriors
Rocco Zikarsky, C, Brisbane (Australia) | Age: 17.9
21. New Orleans Pelicans (via Lakers)
Derrion Reid, SF/PF, Alabama | Age: 18.0
22. Brooklyn Nets (via Suns)
William Riley, SG/SF, Illinois | Age: 18.3
23. Oklahoma City Thunder (via 76ers)
Collin Murray-Boyles, PF/C, South Carolina | Age: 19.0
24. Dallas Mavericks
Derik Queen, C, Maryland | Age: 19.4
25. Brooklyn Nets (via Bucks)
Ian Jackson, SG, North Carolina | Age: 19.3
26. Utah Jazz (via Timberwolves)
Kanon Catchings, SF/PF, BYU | Age: 18.8
27. Brooklyn Nets (via Thunder)
KJ Lewis, SG, Arizona | Age: 19.8
28. Brooklyn Nets (via Knicks)
Tyrese Proctor, PG, Duke | Age: 20.2
29. Orlando Magic (via Nuggets)
Dink Pate, SG/SF, G League | Age: 18.3
30. Boston Celtics
Jaylin Stewart, SF, UConn | Age: 19.3
Remaining Big Board for the 2025 class
31. Johann Grunloh, C, Rasta Vechta (Germany) | Age: 18.8
32. Adou Thiero, SF/PF, Arkansas | Age: 20.1
33. Ryan Kalkbrenner, C, Creighton | Age: 22.4
34. Alex Karaban, PF, Connecticut | Age: 21.6
35. Kwame Evans Jr., PF, Oregon | Age: 19.9
36. Michael Ajayi, SF/PF, Gonzaga | Age: 21
37. Milan Momcilovic, SF/PF, Iowa State | Age: 19.7
38. Kanaan Carlyle, PG/SG, Indiana | Age: 19.7
39. Caleb Foster, PG, Duke | Age: 19.9
40. Izan Almansa, PF/C | Age: 19.0
41. Zvonimir Ivisic, PF/C, Arkansas | Age: 20.8
42. Sam Walters, SF/PF, Ohio State | Age: 20
43. Hunter Sallis, SG, Wake Forest | Age: 21.2
44. Sion James, SF, Duke | Age: 21.5
45. Jaden Bradley, PG, Arizona | Age: 20.7
46. Saint Thomas, F, USC | Age: 21.1
47. Elliot Cadeau, PG, North Carolina | Age: 19.8
48. Baba Miller, SF/PF, Florida Atlantic, Age: 20.3
49. Jarin Stevenson, PF, Alabama | Age: 18.7
50. Payton Sandfort, SF, Iowa | Age: 21.9
51. Jamir Watkins, SG/SF, Florida State | Age: 22.9
52. Kam Jones, SG, Marquette | Age: 22.3
53. Baye Ndongo, PF/C, Georgia Tech | Age: 21.4
54. AJ Storr, SG/SF, Kansas | Age: 20.8
55. JT Toppin, PF, Texas Tech | Age: 19
56. Kobe Johnson, SG/SF, UCLA | Age: 21.4
57. Alex Toohey, SF/PF, Sydney (Australia) | Age: 20.1
58. Hansen Yang, C, Qingdao (China) | Age: 19
哈登以后看华子
· 湖南随着扎卡里·里萨彻(Zaccharie Risacher)、亚历克斯·萨尔(Alex Sarr)、多诺万·克林根(Donovan Clingan)以及2024年级的其他球员进入NBA,现在是时候将注意力转向明年的选秀了。2025年NBA选秀还有12个月,但我们早已关注这些球员很久,并在今年2月发布了首份模拟选秀。在过去几年里,我们在高中、草根篮球、美国篮球和国际篮联(FIBA)赛事等多种场合观察了这批最佳新秀,并将在今夏和秋季继续这一过程。在许多这样的赛事中,NBA高管们和我们坐在一起,他们对2025年的选秀班级感到兴奋,尤其是顶级球员如库珀·弗拉格(Cooper Flagg)、艾瑞斯·“艾斯”·贝利(Airious "Ace" Bailey)和迪伦·哈珀(Dylan Harper)带来的星光。除了这些精英新秀外,还有其他球员将在大学和全球范围内涌现,正如里德·谢泼德(Reed Sheppard)、道尔顿·奈特(Dalton Knecht)、尼古拉·托皮奇(Nikola Topic)、德文·卡特(Devin Carter)、约翰尼·弗菲(Johnny Furphy)、巴布·卡林顿(Bub Carrington)、凯肖恩·乔治(Kyshawn George)等人在2024年选秀中崭露头角一样。这也是选秀预测的乐趣所在,永远不知道何时何地会有新星出现,令NBA球探们始终保持警惕。谁将成为2025年的状元秀?许多人已经认为弗拉格会成为状元,这有很好的理由。弗拉格在过去一年里表现出色,他在Nike EYBL 16U联赛中场均得到26.8分、12.4个篮板、5.2个盖帽和4.7次助攻,带领蒙特沃德学院取得30胜0负的战绩并获得全国冠军,还在Nike Hoop Summit和Jordan Brand Classic比赛中有出色表现。弗拉格在攻防两端都有突出表现,他是一名爆发力十足的运动员,得分能力强,三分球投射能力显著提升,传球出色,防守影响力巨大,场上充满激情,覆盖全场,在篮下和外围防守中均表现出色。弗拉格选择重新分类,跳过了最后一年的高中生活。他的年轻(12月21日年满18岁)以及球控和投篮创造能力的提升将是球探们在他下赛季在杜克大学表现中最关注的方面。从第一天起,弗拉格将面临高期望和压力,我们仍需了解他是否确实具备状元的潜力,并成为一名像预期的那样的特许球员。弗拉格在ESPN 100中排名第一,他的身高增加到6英尺9英寸,增添了肌肉,并展示了带球传球和自信投篮的能力。他将如何将自己的才华转化为胜利是巩固自己在2025年选秀班级中顶端位置的最佳途径。贝利将在2024-25赛季效力于罗格斯大学,被认为是弗拉格在状元争夺中的最大竞争对手。贝利身高6英尺9英寸,是一名防守多面手,投篮能力强,竞争意识强的后卫,在ESPN 100中排名第二。贝利的决策能力不如弗拉格成熟,但他有更多的球权操作经验,使他在一对一和挡拆操作上占据优势。哈珀是贝利在罗格斯大学的队友,他是四月份所有比赛和训练中表现最出色的球员之一,尽管身高超过6英尺5英寸,体重达到228磅,臂展达6英尺10英寸,几乎完全打控球后卫。哈珀在ESPN 100中排名第四,他增加了肌肉,展示了出色的控球能力,力量和技巧,利用和拒绝挡拆,内线完成进攻,防守本能强,可以带球传球,每次我们看到他比赛时,他都会命中一连串的困难投篮。一些NBA球队将哈珀排名2025年班级第一,但其他球队则被贝利的潜力所吸引。然而,大多数人仍然将弗拉格视为早期的状元,因为他显然是这群球员中最有成就的。那些对这一群体有坚定意见的人(大多数NBA球队处于评估的早期阶段)通常认为这三位新秀中的任何一位可能在2024年选秀中都会成为状元。他们期待看到下一批球员的表现,包括新的候选人,例如诺兰·特拉奥雷(Nolan Traore)或VJ Edgecombe,这两位新秀在ESPN 100中排名前五。2025年需要关注的回归新秀有哪些?ESPN的早期模拟选秀通常优先考虑年轻的新生和排名较高的潜力球员,这些球员因其年轻、潜力和高中的声誉而在早期获得关注。然而,不可避免的是,其中一些球员将在第一轮中被回归的大学新秀取代,这些球员在新的团队环境中崭露头角,并在休赛期取得发展进步。我们刚刚看到奈特、卡特、扎克·埃迪(Zach Edey)、特里斯坦·达席尔瓦(Tristan da Silva)和许多其他大学回归球员成功进入2024年选秀的首轮,而在一年前,他们并不被视为顶级新秀。随着未来一年还有许多事情要发生,这里列出了一些NBA球队将在秋季密切关注的顶级大学球员。莫泰杰斯·克里瓦斯(Motiejus Krivas),中锋,亚利桑那大学克里瓦斯上赛季为野猫队场均出场12分钟,但由于先发球员乌马尔·巴洛(Oumar Ballo)转学至印第安纳大学,这位7英尺3英寸的立陶宛中锋有望获得突破机会。克里瓦斯在进攻端技术娴熟,篮下脚步和触感良好,上赛季在亚利桑那大学有过一些高光时刻。虽然更像是一名传统中锋,但克里瓦斯的身材和臂展使他在篮板和得分方面非常具有影响力。他不会拉开空间,防守将是他需要改进的关键领域,但他有潜力成为一名全面的球员,NBA总是对身材和生产力感兴趣。柯林·默里-博伊尔斯(Collin Murray-Boyles),前锋,南卡罗来纳大学默里-博伊尔斯(6英尺7英寸,231磅)作为一名18岁的新生在南卡罗来纳大学取得了突破,帮助球队打进NCAA锦标赛。赛季结束时,他因出色的篮球意识和稳定的动力引起了NBA的关注,尽管他作为一名身材不高的大前锋,风格有些不寻常。虽然不是一名顶级运动员,但默里-博伊尔斯的高效表现以及在防守端生成抢断和盖帽的能力使他成为球队,特别是以数据分析为驱动的前台,密切关注的球员。KJ·刘易斯(KJ Lewis),后卫,亚利桑那大学另一位将在亚利桑那大学担任更大角色的球员,刘易斯在新生赛季中场均出场18分钟,尤其在防守端表现出色。他利用自己的力量和横向速度进行防守,表现出出色的直觉,如果他能在进攻端取得实质性进步,将有望吸引NBA的兴趣。刘易斯不是球权创造者,因此他找到角色的最佳途径可能是提高外围投篮命中率(去年1.1次出手命中率34.1%)。如果他能在进攻端展现出显著进步,刘易斯有望获得首轮关注。泰雷斯·普罗克特(Tyrese Proctor),后卫,杜克大学普罗克特在杜克大学的两个赛季未能证明他早期职业生涯中的乐透潜力,但上赛季表现出了一些进步,他仍然只有20岁。在一支包括几位预期首轮新秀的强队中,普罗克特将再次承担很多责任,NBA球探希望看到他在投篮、组织和领导能力方面的显著成长。普罗克特作为控球后卫身材高大(6英尺5英寸),可以在防守端进行多位置防守,并具备稳定的外围投篮能力。虽然他在两个赛季的三分球命中率都低于30%,但投篮姿势流畅,提升命中率可能是他吸引首轮关注的关键。