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The more things change, the more they stay the same.事情变化越多，它们就越保持不变。

On Sunday, the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors will dance once again in the playoffs. These two teams are familiar with each other, having faced off in the postseason four times within the last decade. Two duels in the Western Conference finals, one in the semifinal and one in the first round. Each matchup has come with fierce battles and unforgettable moments, embracing what the playoffs are all about.周日，休斯顿火箭队和金州勇士队将在季后赛中再次跳舞。这两支球队彼此熟悉，在过去十年中曾四次在季后赛中交锋。西部决赛的两场对决，一场在半决赛，一场在第一轮。每场比赛都伴随着激烈的战斗和难忘的时刻，拥抱了季后赛的全部意义。

A lot has changed since they last played each other in the postseason. Mike D’Antoni, James Harden and Chris Paul, the faces of the Rockets, are long gone in Houston. For the Warriors, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson have moved on as well. But there are still similarities. The Rockets have seen success off the backs of a versatile, physical defense and have unwavering self-belief. The Warriors are still spearheaded by head coach Steve Kerr and are anchored by Stephen Curry and Draymond Green.自从他们上次在季后赛中交手以来，发生了很多变化。火箭队的代言人迈克·德安东尼、詹姆斯·哈登和克里斯·保罗在休斯顿早已不复存在。对于勇士队，凯文·杜兰特和克莱·汤普森也已经离开。但仍然存在相似之处。火箭队在多才多艺的身体防守和坚定不移的自信下取得了成功。勇士队仍然由主教练史蒂夫·科尔 （Steve Kerr） 领导，并由斯蒂芬·库里 （Stephen Curry） 和德雷蒙德·格林 （Draymond Green） 担任主力。

Both fan bases are passionate. Both teams are confident.两个球迷群都充满激情。两支球队都充满信心。

To break down this matchup, Rockets writer Kelly Iko and Warriors writer Anthony Slater got together to discuss the series from all angles — strengths, weaknesses, where the series could turn and predictions.为了分析这场比赛，火箭队的编剧 Kelly Iko 和勇士队的编剧 Anthony Slater 聚在一起，从各个角度讨论了这个系列赛——优势、劣势、系列赛的转折点和预测。

How did they get to this point? How would you summarize the regular season?他们是怎么走到这一步的？你会如何总结常规赛？

Slater: In twisted segments. The Warriors scorched out to a 12-3 start after an undefeated preseason that had many prematurely declaring them stealth title contenders. They weren’t. Their flaws would soon be exposed. De’Anthony Melton tore his ACL, an under-the-radar injury with a big rotational impact. Players struggled to gain a rhythm in Steve Kerr’s overcrowded rotation. Nagging injuries slowed Curry and Green. Jonathan Kuminga badly sprained his ankle. They flipped Melton for Dennis Schröder. That didn’t work. For two months, they were one of the worst teams in the NBA. Then they made the desperate trade for Jimmy Butler at the deadline and everything changed. They finished 22-7, surged up the standings and — as we’ve seen — look like a dangerous seventh seed considering the playoff pedigree of Curry, Butler and Green together.斯莱特：在扭曲的片段中。勇士队在季前赛不败后以 12-3 的比分开局，许多人过早地宣布他们是隐形冠军争夺者。他们不是。他们的缺陷很快就会暴露出来。德安东尼·梅尔顿撕裂了他的前交叉韧带，这是一种不为人知的伤病，对轮换产生了很大的影响。球员们努力在史蒂夫·科尔过度拥挤的轮换中找到节奏。挥之不去的伤病让库里和格林放慢了脚步。乔纳森·库明加严重扭伤了脚踝。他们用梅尔顿换来了丹尼斯·施罗德。那没有用。在两个月的时间里，他们是 NBA 最差的球队之一。然后他们在截止日期前绝望地交易了吉米·巴特勒，一切都变了。他们以 22-7 结束比赛，在积分榜上飙升，而且——正如我们所看到的——考虑到库里、巴特勒和格林的季后赛血统，他们看起来就像一个危险的七号种子。

Fresh off an impressive 41-win season, the Rockets were hit with a cold dose of reality to start the 2024-25 campaign, losing two of their first three games to mediocre opponents — including a shocking home-opening defeat to the Charlotte Hornets. For a team that held high expectations and demanded a postseason appearance, the bad habits on display were potentially more harmful than losses and needed course correction.刚刚结束了令人印象深刻的 41 胜赛季，火箭队在 2024-25 赛季开始时受到了冷酷现实的打击，在他们的前三场比赛中输给了平庸的对手——包括令人震惊的主场首败给夏洛特黄蜂队。对于一支寄予厚望并要求进入季后赛的球队来说，所表现出的坏习惯可能比失败更有害，需要纠正方向。

After recalibrating their focus with the help of some old-school brazenness from head coach Ime Udoka, Houston began their ascent up the Western Conference standings going 18-9 over the final two months of the calendar year. Jabari Smith Jr. fractured his left hand in early January, depriving the Rockets of one of their most versatile forwards — but paved the way for Amen Thompson’s grand entrance. Thompson, who had already been one of the more effective two-way reserves, grabbed the starting opportunity and has held onto it since, building a case for Defensive Player of the Year along the way.在主教练伊梅·乌多卡 （Ime Udoka） 的一些老派厚颜无耻的帮助下重新调整了他们的注意力后，休斯顿开始在西部联盟的积分榜上攀升，在日历年的最后两个月里以 18-9 的成绩上升。小贾巴里·史密斯 （Jabari Smith Jr.） 在 1 月初左手骨折，使火箭队失去了他们最全能的前锋之一——但为阿门·汤普森的盛大登场铺平了道路。汤普森已经是更有效的双向后备之一，他抓住了首发机会，并从那时起一直坚持下去，一路上为年度最佳防守球员奠定了基础。

The Rockets’ inconsistency was a year-round theme; 11 losses out of 16 games between February and early March once again reminded them of the rigors of the regular season. But a 15-5 finish, with some key wins over playoff opponents, earned them the No. 2 seed. Houston leaned on its top-three defense all season long, and that won’t change in the first round.火箭队的不稳定是全年的主题;从 2 月到 3 月初的 16 场比赛中输了 11 场，这再次提醒了他们常规赛的严酷性。但 15-5 的成绩，以及对季后赛对手的一些关键胜利，为他们赢得了 2 号种子。休斯顿整个赛季都依赖前三名的防守，这一点在第一轮不会改变。

What needs to happen to advance?需要做什么才能进步？

Slater: They need their role players to hit 3s. Not a novel concept in the modern NBA. It’s a massive swing factor for every playoff team. But that’ll be particularly important for the Warriors, considering how Udoka will presumably deploy his young, long, active, physical defense to crowd and bump and swarm Curry, content on forcing the others to beat them. If you told me the combined 3-point percentage from Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody in this series, I could probably predict the winner. Podziemski’s been hot since early March (mid-40 percent on high volume). Moody has been cold lately. But future seven-game samples are impossible to forecast.斯莱特：他们需要他们的角色球员命中三分球。在现代 NBA 中，这并不是一个新概念。这对每支季后赛球队来说都是一个巨大的摇摆因素。但这对勇士队来说尤其重要，考虑到乌多卡可能会如何部署他年轻、长距离、活跃的身体防守来挤满库里、撞撞和涌向库里，满足于迫使其他人击败他们。如果你告诉我布兰丁·波齐姆斯基和摩西·穆迪在这个系列赛中的三分球命中率之和，我可能会预测出谁是赢家。波齐姆斯基自 3 月初以来一直很热（高容量时 40% 左右）。穆迪最近很冷。但未来的七场比赛样本是无法预测的。

Iko: Houston needs to control the tempo and possession game. Other factors will come into play — how long the Rockets’ defenders can stay on the floor and out of foul trouble, keeping Curry within reasonable limits — but the playoffs have always been about maximizing possessions. The Rockets are the league’s best offensive rebounding team but Golden State ranks fifth, so it’s not a clear advantage for Houston. Seeing as both teams generally struggle with shot making, this series boils down to which team can hold onto the ball longer.Iko：休斯顿需要控制比赛的节奏和控球率。其他因素也会发挥作用——火箭队的后卫可以在地板上呆多久，避免犯规麻烦，将库里保持在合理的范围内——但季后赛一直是关于最大化控球的。火箭队是联盟最好的进攻篮板球队，但金州排名第五，所以这对休斯顿来说并不是一个明显的优势。鉴于两支球队通常都在努力投篮，这个系列赛归结为哪支球队可以更长时间地持球。

You could argue that both teams’ style of play is somewhat suited to the postseason, finishing 17th and 18th in pace despite the elite athletes on Houston’s side. The Warriors are too astute a defensive group to allow the Rockets to bury them by transition. With that being said, I’m interested to see how and when Udoka trots out his double-big lineups and how that translates to creating extra chances.你可以说，两支球队的比赛风格都比较适合季后赛，尽管休斯顿这边有精英运动员，但他们在速度上分别排名第 17 位和第 18 位。勇士队是一个太精明的防守团队，不能让火箭队通过转换来埋葬他们。话虽如此，我很想知道乌多卡如何以及何时推出他的双大阵容，以及这如何转化为创造额外的机会。

Expect the series between the Rockets and Warriors to be another physical affair. (Eakin Howard/Getty Images)预计火箭队和勇士队之间的系列赛将是另一场身体对抗。（埃金霍华德/盖蒂图片社）

What should they be most worried about?他们最应该担心什么？

Slater: The wave of powerful athletes Houston is about to throw at them. The Warriors are an older, tinier team. Their three best players are 37, 35 and 35. Butler, at 6-foot-7, is the tallest player in their starting lineup. Draymond Green, their starting center, is just pushing past 6-foot-6. Their most explosive wing, Kuminga, is currently out of the rotation because of fit issues. This is a veteran, savvy, ferociously competitive group led by a trio of playoff legends who will generate their own chaos and problems for the Rockets to solve. But Houston has a diverse set of defenders (Amen Thompson, Dillon Brooks, Fred VanVleet, Tari Eason) to throw at Curry and a coach who’ll do his best to ensure the game is allowed to be played in a physical environment that suits his strategy.斯莱特：休斯顿即将向他们投来一波强大的运动员浪潮。勇士队是一支年龄更大、规模更小的球队。他们最好的三名球员分别是 37 岁、35 岁和 35 岁。身高 6 英尺 7 英寸的巴特勒是他们首发阵容中最高的球员。他们的首发中锋德雷蒙德·格林身高刚刚突破 6 英尺 6 英寸。他们最具爆发力的侧翼库明加目前因为体能问题而被排除在轮换之外。这是一支由三位季后赛传奇人物领导的老牌、精明、竞争激烈的团队，他们将制造自己的混乱和问题供火箭队解决。但休斯顿有各种各样的后卫（阿门·汤普森、狄龙·布鲁克斯、弗雷德·范弗里特、塔里·伊森）可以向库里投球，还有一位教练会尽最大努力确保比赛允许在适合他策略的物理环境中进行。

It’s one thing to account for Curry — the Rockets were able to neutralize him in their last meeting, but consider that an anomaly — but just as we’ve seen over the last few years, there’s no answer for a locked-in Butler. Not only is he able to put pressure on defenders, whether it’s by muscling his way into the teeth of the defense and drawing contact, but as he showed in the Play-In Tournament, Butler is a dependable playmaker as well.考虑到库里是一回事——火箭队在上次交锋中能够压制他，但认为这是一个反常现象——但正如我们在过去几年中看到的那样，对于锁定的巴特勒没有答案。他不仅能够向防守者施加压力，无论是通过肌肉插入防守的牙齿并吸引接触，而且正如他在入围赛中展示的那样，巴特勒也是一名可靠的组织者。

I expect Dillon Brooks to draw the bulk of Butler’s minutes, but this has to be a collective effort. The Warriors launch the second-most 3s in the league (and are fourth in makes), so it’s imperative that they don’t channel all of their energy on bothering Curry, as tempting as it may be. Butler has had his fair share of playoff battles and understands this time of the year arguably better than anyone. Houston’s youth does not.我预计狄龙·布鲁克斯会占用巴特勒的大部分时间，但这必须是集体努力的结果。勇士队的三分球命中率是联盟第二多的（命中率排名第四），所以他们不能把所有的精力都放在打扰库里上，尽管这可能很诱人。巴特勒在季后赛中也有过相当多的经历，可以说比任何人都更了解每年的这个时候。休斯顿的年轻人则不然。

Who or what is the X-factor?谁或什么是 X 因子？

Slater: Draymond Green defending Alperen Şengün in the post. There’s a reason Green started roaring at Şengün in their last matchup. He was trying to charge up his sleepy team and home arena but also see if he could spook the bigger Şengün. He admitted part of his tactic postgame was because “I already give up six inches and 50 pounds.” The Rockets will do their best to screen Green off of Şengün and let him attack softer matchups. Green will do his best to stay in the mix. They’ll surely get their fair share of one-on-one clashes. Green’s ability or inability to make Şengün relatively inefficient feels like the swing factor on how well the Warriors can bottle up Houston’s offense.斯莱特：德雷蒙德·格林在内线防守阿尔佩伦·桑根。格林在他们的上一场比赛中开始对桑根咆哮是有原因的。他试图为他沉睡的球队和主场充电，但也想看看他是否能吓到更大的桑根。他在赛后承认，他的战术部分是因为“我已经放弃了 6 英寸和 50 磅”。火箭队将尽最大努力屏蔽格林，让他攻击更柔软的对抗。格林会尽最大努力留在混合中。他们肯定会在一对一的冲突中得到应有的份额。格林能否让桑根的效率相对低下，感觉就像是勇士队在多大程度上限制休斯顿进攻的摇摆因素。

The Rockets have been one of the league’s most impactful defenses all season long, but their ineffectiveness on switches is probably their best-kept secret. And it’s been difficult to pinpoint the reason why.火箭队在整个赛季中一直是联盟最具影响力的防守之一，但他们在换防上的低效可能是他们保守得最好的秘密。而且很难确定原因。

According to Synergy, Houston ranked 10th in switches on ballhandlers, but allowed opponents to score 0.987 points per possession — ranking 26th in the NBA. It’s even worse when the opposing ballhandler decides to launch a 3 after a Rockets switch, allowing 1.168 points per chance. That’s a dangerous formula against a team featuring two offensive hubs in Curry and Butler that thrive in mismatch hunting. Houston’s counter to that is toggling multiple defenders — Udoka mentioned this week that he specifically prepared his team to guard different personnel — but don’t expect a seamless approach.根据 Synergy 的数据，休斯顿在控球手换防中排名第 10，但允许对手每次控球得分 0.987 分——在 NBA 中排名第 26 位。当对方控球手决定在火箭换防后投出 3 分时，情况就更糟了，每次机会让分 1.168 分。对于一支拥有库里和巴特勒两个进攻中锋的球队来说，这是一个危险的公式，他们在寻找失误方面表现出色。休斯顿的应对措施是切换多名防守者——乌多卡本周提到，他专门为他的球队做好了防守不同人员的准备——但不要指望无缝的方法。

Who wins the series and why? 谁赢得了系列赛，为什么？

Slater: I have zero level of confidence either way. I’ll say Warriors in seven mostly because I’ve watched more than a decade of playoff series’ involving Curry, Green and Kerr — including a handful of must-have road wins in Houston — and learned it’s typically wise to believe they’ll solve the riddle. But I would not be stunned if the Rockets overwhelmed them with force.斯莱特：无论哪种方式，我都没有信心。我会说勇士七强，主要是因为我看了十多年涉及库里、格林和科尔的季后赛系列赛——包括在休斯顿的几场必胜——并了解到相信他们会解开谜题通常是明智的。但如果火箭队用武力压倒他们，我不会感到震惊。

Iko: I’ve gone back and forth about this for days, but I’ll say Rockets in six for now. I’m sure a good chunk of Houston’s fan base has emotional scars over the damage the Warriors have inflicted during the past decade, but this is a different team. As long as they’re able to keep their home-court advantage — especially in Games 1 and 2 — I think they have enough physical force to get them through a series. Should be a good one.Iko：我已经来来回回地讨论这个问题好几天了，但我现在会说火箭六场比赛。我敢肯定，休斯顿的很大一部分球迷对勇士在过去十年中造成的伤害感到情绪上的伤痕，但这是一支不同的球队。只要他们能够保持主场优势——尤其是在第 1 场和第 2 场比赛中——我认为他们有足够的体力来让他们度过一个系列赛。应该是一场精彩的比赛。